[Public Opinion Briefing 15-3] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys 2, [Public Opinion Briefing 15-3] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys 2

[Public Opinion Briefing 15] Grand National Party Primary and Voter Support Fluctuations

"1] Analysis of Voter Presidential Candidate Support Fluctuations and Support Base Changes - Jeong Han-wool

"2] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys 1 - Kim Seong-tae

"3] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys 2 - Lee Hyun-woo

"4] Once Progressive, Always Progressive? Once Conservative, Always Conservative? - Jeong Han-wool

"5] The Grand National Party Primary, What After? - Kwon Hyuk-yong

"6] The Pro-Government Camp, Should They Unify? If So, How? - Seo Hyun-jin

"7] Evaluation of the Grand National Party's Candidate Vetting Activities - Lim Seong-hak

3. Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys 2

Lee Hyun-woo (Sogang University, Political Science)

□ Election Cynicism Due to Heated Primaries Leads to an Increase in Undecided Voters

□ Candidate Evaluations Influence Party Evaluations

□ Undecided Voters Show a Strong Tendency to Support Park Geun-hye, Contributing to Narrowing the Support Gap Between the Two Candidates

The undecided voters, who do not have a candidate to support, increased from 9% (251 individuals) in the first survey on April 30th to 13.6% (397 individuals) in this second survey. This is contrary to the general trend where undecided voters decrease as the election approaches. Although election interest should increase with more election information, the election interest among all respondents has not risen even after three months. The increase in undecided voters and the lack of heightened election interest are due to the sluggish integration of the pro-government camp and the Grand National Party's primary, which focused on mutual criticism, leading to increased disappointment with the election. Approximately one-third of those with no candidate to support also lack a party to support, indicating a close connection between candidate evaluation and party evaluation (*). This phenomenon was particularly pronounced among the Uri Party and the Democratic Party, which have undergone party realignments.

Nearly half (48.7%) of the undecided voters have no preferred party, double the rate among respondents with a preferred candidate. Of the undecided respondents in the first survey, half (112 individuals) remain undecided. Among those who have decided on a candidate from the undecided pool, former Representative Park Geun-hye shows the highest proportion at 40.3%, nearly double that of former Mayor Lee Myung-bak (23.7%). Analyzing respondents who had a preferred candidate in the first survey but became undecided in the second, only former Representative Park Geun-hye gained, while former Mayor Lee Myung-bak experienced the largest numerical loss. Both former Minister Sohn Hak-kyu and former Minister Chung Dong-young show significant decreases in support, primarily due to a lack of conviction in their candidacies and party changes.

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

* When coded as having or not having a preferred candidate (1st and 2nd surveys) (1->0), approximately one-third of those who lost their preferred candidate also showed an increase in not having a preferred party.

** The net gain/loss rate is calculated by dividing the change in votes by the number of votes received in the second survey. In the case of Chung Dong-young, there was a loss of 18 individuals, and since the number of supporters in the second survey was 71, a loss rate of 25.4% was calculated.