[Public Opinion Briefing 15-2] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys1

[Public Opinion Briefing 15] The Grand National Party Primary and Voter Support Fluctuations

[1] Analysis of Changes in Voter Support for Presidential Candidates and Support Bases - Jeong Han-wool

[2] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys1 - Kim Sung-tae

[3] Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys2 - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Once Progressive, Always Progressive? Once Conservative, Always Conservative? - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The Grand National Party Primary, What After? - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[6] The Pro-Government Camp: Should They Unite? If So, How? - Seo Hyun-jin

[7] Evaluation of the Grand National Party's Candidate Vetting Activities - Lim Seong-hak

2. Tracking Unseen Shifts in Public Sentiment Through Panel Surveys1

Kim Sung-tae (Professor, Department of Media and Communication, Korea University)

□ Voter Support Shifts Hidden Beneath Approval Rating Gaps

□ 4 out of 10 Voters Changed Their Preferred Presidential Candidate in the Last 4 Months

□ Pro-Government Party Supporters Show Unstable Party Preference

The most interesting finding from this second panel survey is that 41.4% of all respondents changed their preferred candidate compared to the first survey conducted in late April. Examining the extent of change, Grand National Party candidate Lee Myung-bak saw 29.7% of his supporters from the first survey withdraw their support, a slightly higher rate than the 25.4% for candidate Park Geun-hye. For the pro-government candidates, the withdrawal rates were 51.5% for candidate Sohn Hak-kyu and 65.3% for candidate Chung Dong-young, meaning more people changed their preferred candidate than those who consistently supported them from the first to the second survey.

Regarding the reasons for changing their preferred candidate, 27.8% of respondents answered, "Because a better candidate emerged," and 17.8% answered, "Disappointed by the candidate's moral issues." For candidate Lee Myung-bak, the most common reason was "Disappointed by moral issues" (48.2%), while for candidate Park Geun-hye, the most frequent response was "Because a better candidate emerged" (24.6%). Furthermore, 10.8% answered, "Disappointed by candidates engaging only in mutual slander"; for candidate Lee, this accounted for 18%, and for candidate Park, 21.3% withdrew their support for this reason. Overall, it appears that many voters changed their preferred candidates recently due to disappointment over moral issues or mutual slander among candidates, possibly related to recent vetting controversies. Conversely, the number of voters who changed their preferred candidate based on candidate competence or policy proposals was relatively small.

Meanwhile, changes in party affiliation over the same period were also notable. Although overall support levels showed little difference from the first survey (Grand National Party: 46.8% -> 48.1%, Uri Party: 12.4% -> 9.2%), the Uri Party experienced significant fluctuations, with 56.2% of its supporters changing their party affiliation or responding that they had no party affiliation, compared to the Grand National Party's 15.7% withdrawal rate. Additionally, the United New Democratic Party, which did not exist in the first survey, showed 5.2% support in the second survey, and together with the Uri Party, represented a total of 14.4% support.

[Table 1] Change in Presidential Candidate Support from 1st to 2nd Survey

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[Figure 1] Reasons for Lee-Park Candidate Support Defection (%)