[Public Opinion Brief 17-5] The Influence of President Roh's Sentiment on the Presidential Election

[Public Opinion Brief 17] "Will the 17th Presidential Election Again Come Down to a 2% Difference?"

Topic 1. Lee Myung-bak's High Approval Ratings and the Explosive Potential of the BBK Variable - Kang Won-taek

Topic 2. Lee Myung-bak's Issue Strategy - Park Chan-wook

Topic 3. Can the Unification of Pro-Government Candidates Change the Presidential Election Landscape? - Lee Na-young and Jeong Han-wool

Topic 4. Moon Kook-hyun's Dilemma - Kim Sung-tae

Topic 5. The Impact of President Roh's Governance Control on the Presidential Election - Seo Hyun-jin

Topic 5. The Impact of President Roh's Governance Control on the Presidential Election Scene

Seo Hyun-jin (Department of Social Education, Sungshin Women's University)

1. The Phenomenon of Increasing Support for President Roh

It is generally known that the evaluation of the incumbent president's governance is closely related to the selection of the next presidential candidate. Does the evaluation of President Roh Moo-hyun's governance also influence candidate support in this presidential election? First, according to surveys from the first to third rounds, public positive evaluations of President Roh Moo-hyun's governance are surprisingly and steadily increasing. Conversely, negative evaluations of his governance have decreased, narrowing the gap with positive evaluations from 38% (1st round) to 23.6% (3rd round).

[Figure 1] Changes in Roh's Governance Evaluation (%)

2. 3rd Survey Results: North Korea Issue - Roh's Evaluation

This is an unusual phenomenon during the lame-duck period at the end of a term, and it appears to be related to President Roh Moo-hyun's recent exercise of political initiative through issues concerning North Korea, such as the inter-Korean summit and the Northern Limit Line (NLL) debate. According to the 3rd survey results, 72% of respondents viewed the influence of the recent inter-Korean summit positively. Notably, 94.5% of respondents who evaluated President Roh Moo-hyun's governance positively had a positive outlook on the summit's influence. Regarding the controversial NLL, 46.7% of respondents who held negative views of President Roh stated it was an issue that should not be discussed, while 42.3% of those with positive views stated it was an issue that could be discussed with North Korea. This indicates a correlation between attitudes toward North Korean issues and the evaluation of President Roh.

[Table 1] Roh Support and North Korea Variables

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3. President Roh's Evaluation and Candidate Support

Does this rising positive evaluation of President Roh translate into increased support for pro-government presidential candidates? Looking at the survey results from the first to third rounds, the proportion of voters who positively evaluated President Roh and intended to vote for Lee Myung-bak showed a slight decrease. Particularly in the third survey, Lee Myung-bak absorbed approximately 57.8% of Park Geun-hye's supporters. In contrast, the proportion intending to vote for Chung Dong-young increased significantly, substantially narrowing the gap with Lee Myung-bak in the third survey.

However, it remains uncertain whether the positive evaluation of President Roh will continue to rise, and even if it does, whether it will be advantageous for pro-government candidates. At each survey point, the proportion of voters who positively evaluated President Roh but chose Lee Myung-bak was the highest. In the third survey results, Lee Myung-bak's support rate remained the highest, and the proportion of those with no preferred candidate also reached 21.4%. This indicates that the rise in President Roh's approval rating did not directly translate into support for Chung Dong-young, who pursued a strategy of differentiation from the Roh administration during the formation of the Grand National Unity Democratic Party.

This presents a dilemma for Chung Dong-young and other pro-government candidates who must now consider whether to win back President Roh's sentiment to attract his supporters. Even if they manage to win over President Roh's supporters, the current situation, where 67% of voters who evaluate President Roh negatively support Lee Myung-bak, does not appear to offer a significant advantage. In other words, while President Roh's sentiment ('Roh-sim') could be a variable, it may only serve to rally pro-government supporters and be insufficient to win over Lee Myung-bak's supporters. Therefore, the question remains: should they seek to gain 'Roh-sim' or maintain differentiation?

[Table 2] Changes in Candidate Support Among Voters with Positive Evaluations of President Roh

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