[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 17-2] Lee Myung-bak's Issue Strategy

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 17] "Will the 17th Presidential Election Come Down to a 2% Difference Again?"

Topic 1. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's High Approval Ratings and the Explosive Potential of the BBK Variable - Kang Won-taek

Topic 2. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's Issue Strategy - Park Chan-wook

Topic 3. Can the Unification of Pro-Government Candidates Change the Presidential Election Landscape? - Lee Na-young, Jeong Han-ul

Topic 4. Candidate Moon Kook-hyun's Dilemma - Kim Sung-tae

Topic 5. The Impact of President Roh's Governance on the Presidential Election - Seo Hyun-jin

Topic 2. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's Issue Strategy

Park Chan-wook (Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University)

□ Economic Growth or Mitigation of Polarization, is the Economy Lee Myung-bak's Domain?

37.9% of all respondents pointed to the mitigation of economic polarization, and 32.6% indicated economic growth as the top priority policy task for the next government. Economic growth is favorable to the conservative Grand National Party (GNP), while the mitigation of polarization is typically more aligned with the more progressive United New Democratic Party (UNDP) and the pro-government camp. The absolute majority of those who cited economic growth, 68.8%, believed the GNP would best resolve this issue (UNDP: 8.4%). However, contrary to expectations, a relative majority of respondents who cited the mitigation of polarization also selected the GNP as the party best suited to address the issue, at 48.4% (UNDP: 16.2%). While prioritizing growth and mitigating polarization can be conflicting goals, they are currently bundled into a single economic issue, and Candidate Lee Myung-bak of the GNP, who has the image of an economic problem-solver, has preempted this, placing him in an advantageous position.


The pro-government camp attacked Candidate Lee's economic policies, labeling them as a predatory, fake economy for those with money and land. Their aim was to separate the task of economic revitalization, which has become Lee's exclusive domain, and turn it into an issue of pro-con debate. Regarding this assertion by the pro-government camp, 45.3% of respondents agreed, 43.6% disagreed, and 11.3% remained undecided. A significant number of voters acknowledge the pro-government view, which aligns with mitigating polarization, but they do not expect parties other than the GNP to resolve it.

[Table 1] Top Priority National Tasks for the Next Government and Party Best Suited to Resolve Them (%)

□ Candidate Lee's Education Pledges Garner Support, Outweighing Opposition

Education issues garner significant attention from voters and hold a high potential for controversy. By taking a clear stance, it is possible to divide voters into supporters and opponents and consolidate support. Of course, there is also the risk of a backlash where opposition is strengthened. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's education policies appear to contribute to leading policy debates and reinforcing his support base. Regarding the pledge to gradually liberalize university student selection rights and increase specialized high schools, 50.4% of respondents agreed, 34.6% disagreed, and 15.0% were unsure. Overall, agreement outweighs disagreement, particularly among Lee's supporters, who constitute over half of the voters, where the ratio of agreement to disagreement is approximately 7 to 2.

□ Grand Canal Pledge's Vote-Getting Power Currently Negative

In contrast, the Grand Canal project pledge could backfire if Candidate Lee fails to sufficiently persuade voters. Survey results show 39.5% in favor, 40.3% opposed, and 20.1% unsure. Overall, the proportion of those in favor falls far short of half, and it is difficult to determine whether it is more opposed or in favor. At present, the Grand Canal pledge does not appear to be beneficial for Candidate Lee's vote acquisition.

[Figure 1] Gradual Liberalization of University Admissions / Expansion of Autonomous Private High Schools: Agreement vs. Disagreement (%)

[Figure 2] Criticism of Candidate Lee Myung-bak's Economic Policies: Agreement with the Assertion of a "Predatory, Fake Economy" (%)

[Figure 3] Evaluation of the Grand Canal Pledge