Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 18 No. 2: Second Place Competition Determined by External Variables

Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 18: "Analysis of Candidate Support Bases and Presidential Election Outlook for the 1 Strong and 2 Moderate Candidates Ahead of the General Election"

[1] A Strange Election: Voting Choices of the Hardcore Supporters of the Pan-Opposition Camp - Kim Min-jeon

[2] Competition for Second Place, No Less Fierce Than for First - Lee Hyun-woo

[3] [Appendix] The 17th Presidential Election Viewed Through the Ideological Landscape: An Election Outlook Based on the 4th Survey - Jeong Han-wool

2. Fierce Competition for Second Place, Determined by External Variables

Lee Hyun-woo (Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Sogang University)

Noticeable Differences in Perception of Candidate Lee Hoi-chang

With 20 days left until the presidential election, the gap between the leading and second-place candidates remains largely unchanged. Candidate Lee Hoi-chang, who has not undergone a primary election and has yet to present comprehensive policies, has garnered nearly 20% support in a short period, but how much can that support expand? Currently, more than half of Candidate Lee Hoi-chang's supporters are former supporters of Candidate Lee Myung-bak.

However, it is impossible to attract more Lee Myung-bak supporters through policy competition. As shown in the figure, there is a significant difference in the perceived ideological position of Candidate Lee Hoi-chang between the supporters of Lee Hoi-chang and Lee Myung-bak. (Lee Hoi-chang supporters place his ideological position at 6.2, Lee Myung-bak supporters at 9.0, and the overall average at 7.9). While the ideology of the supporters of both candidates is the same at 5.2, Lee Myung-bak's supporters consider Candidate Lee Hoi-chang to be almost an extreme conservative. Therefore, it is very difficult for Candidate Lee Hoi-chang to retain his current supporters while attracting Lee Myung-bak's supporters through policy.

Moral Confrontation is Advantageous

Candidate Lee Hoi-chang's advantageous situation depends less on his own efforts and more on the potential moral collapse of Candidate Lee Myung-bak. Two out of three respondents who switched their support from Candidate Lee Myung-bak to Candidate Lee Hoi-chang did so because they were disappointed by Lee Myung-bak's morality. Only 17.5% of respondents switched their support because Lee Hoi-chang was a better candidate. In other words, one-third of Lee Hoi-chang's current support is due to disappointment with Lee Myung-bak, rather than admiration for Lee Hoi-chang.



Furthermore, given the trend that more than half of Lee Myung-bak's supporters would choose Lee Hoi-chang if they switched their support, it is highly likely that in the upcoming election campaign, Lee Hoi-chang will attack Lee Myung-bak on moral grounds rather than policy.



Nearly 70% of Lee Hoi-chang's supporters (68.9%) believe he should complete his presidential bid. This is partly because they are uneasy about Lee Myung-bak (35.1%), but it can also be seen as supporters, who view Lee Hoi-chang's candidacy as legitimate due to his moral image (27.3%) and his representation of conservatism (17.8%), are attempting to consolidate political forces with an eye toward the general election.



Difficult to Reverse the Framework of Evaluating the Current Administration

Why has Candidate Jeong Dong-young's support stagnated despite the division within the conservative camp? First, the election framework, which frames the election as an evaluation of the Roh Moo-hyun administration, receives nearly 60% agreement regardless of the passage of time. The proposed solution to overcome this is to form a new image through pan-opposition unity, but expectations for pan-opposition unity have diminished since the failure of unification with the Democratic Party.

Changes in Support Rates for Government Change Theory and Pan-Opposition Unity Theory

Candidate Jeong Requires Complex Maneuvers

Seizing the initiative on issues is also not an easy task for Candidate Jeong. When examining candidate evaluations for the three most important issues, Candidate Lee Myung-bak shows overwhelming superiority in all areas. Candidate Jeong Dong-young needs to raise new issues, but the issue of Lee Myung-bak's morality is merely a point of contention that benefits Candidate Lee Hoi-chang more. How Candidate Jeong will present economic solutions that are linked to the economy and surpass Lee Myung-bak's will be a crucial variable for vote acquisition during the election period. Given that he must craft an election strategy that attacks Lee Myung-bak while also checking Lee Hoi-chang, he requires the most complex calculations among the major candidates.

Candidate Best Suited to Resolve Each Top National Task