Opinion Briefing Vol. 19-2: Remaining Points of Interest in the Presidential Election

Issue Briefing Vol. 19: D-7, Final Comprehensive Review of the Presidential Election Landscape

[1] Tracking Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Support Base: Hardcore Supporters + Bandwagon Effect - Kang Won-taek

[2] Remaining Points of Interest in the Presidential Election: Who Will Secure Second Place? - Lee Na-young

[3] Voter Turnout Differences Do Not Alter Support Distribution - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Political Alliances 'Ineffective,' Pro-Government Moral Offensive 'Ineffective' - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[5] The 17th Presidential Election is an Economic Election! - Jeong Han-wool

2. Remaining Points of Interest in the Presidential Election: Who Will Secure Second Place?

Lee Na-young (Director, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center; Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University)

□ The key is who can prevent supporter defection.

□ There is a strong tendency for defectors to shift to Lee Myung-bak's support without moving to the undecided bloc.

Following the prosecution's announcement regarding the BBK allegations, the gap in approval ratings between candidate Lee Myung-bak and other candidates has widened, leading to predictions that this presidential election will conclude with Lee Myung-bak's victory. If so, the final point of interest in the election now centers on who will secure second place.



From the perspective of solely aiming for victory in the presidential election, the battle for second place may seem insignificant. However, considering the post-election political realignments and the general election climate, the second-place position and the vote difference between candidates will significantly impact each candidate's future political standing.



If candidate Huh Kyung-young can rally his supporters and secure second place on election day, the establishment of a new party, envisioned for the post-election period, could gain momentum. Conversely, if the recent trend of declining support translates into actual election results, he will face considerable difficulties in his future political endeavors.

In the case of candidate Chung Dong-young, if he exerts all his efforts in the remaining period to secure a clear second place, he could wield significant influence in the intra-party factional competition within the Democratic New Party and in the general election process. However, if he falls behind candidate Huh Kyung-young, or if the vote difference with Moon Kook-hyun, who is considered part of the reformist bloc, is not substantial, not only candidate Chung Dong-young himself but also the very existence of the Democratic New Party could be shaken. The whirlwind of political realignment for the sake of winning the general election might arise once again.



The results of the fifth survey show that candidate Chung Dong-young is in a more favorable position than candidate Huh Kyung-young in the competition for second place. Firstly, in terms of approval ratings, candidate Chung received 16.7%, ahead of candidate Huh's 11.7%. This is a significant change compared to the fourth survey, where candidate Chung recorded 15.1% and candidate Huh 14.5%, indicating a close race.



The primary reason for the widening gap in approval ratings between the two candidates is the defection of Huh Kyung-young's supporters. While Lee Myung-bak's support retention rate between the fourth and fifth surveys is 90.4%, and Chung Dong-young's is 82.6%, only 62.3% of Huh Kyung-young's supporters maintained their support, with 37.7% withdrawing their support. Among those who withdrew their support, 57% shifted to supporting Lee Myung-bak, and 26% became undecided.



Notably, among Huh Kyung-young's supporters in the fourth survey who argued that Huh should step down when Lee Myung-bak maintained high approval ratings until just before the election despite the BBK allegations, 33.9% shifted to supporting Lee Myung-bak in the current survey. This highlights the significant impact of the prosecution's BBK investigation announcement on the defection of Huh Kyung-young's support base.



In contrast, Chung Dong-young's approval rating increased by 1.6% compared to the fourth survey. Although 17.4% (58 out of 333) of his supporters from the fourth survey withdrew their support, he managed a slight increase in approval ratings thanks to the influx of 95 new supporters. He absorbed 11.0% of Lee In-je's supporters, 15.1% of Kwon Young-gil's supporters, and 8.6% of Moon Kook-hyun's supporters in the fourth survey. These results indicate that even if the unification of the pro-government camp fails, voters with anti-Grand National Party sentiments are showing signs of consolidating their votes for Chung Dong-young as the election approaches. If this trend becomes clear, the likelihood of Chung Dong-young securing second place on election day will increase.



With candidate Lee Myung-bak maintaining an unwavering lead in public opinion polls, this presidential election appears to be an unprecedented contest where the remaining candidates vie for second place. This has raised concerns that the election's urgency and fluidity may decrease, leading to a significant drop in voter turnout. However, presidential elections transcend the mere selection of a president; they serve as a platform for expressing public sentiment, which has a crucial impact on future national governance and political realignments. Therefore, attention is focused on the competition for second place that will unfold during the remaining election period.

<Table> Support Shifts for Candidates Huh Kyung-young and Chung Dong-young