[Public Opinion Briefing 20-4] President-elect Lee Myung-bak's Honeymoon Effect

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 20] "The 17th Presidential Election Results and Prospects for the Next Political Landscape"

[1] Based on the current situation, the Grand National Party is close to securing a two-thirds majority in the general election - Lee Hyun-woo

[2] Is Korean Society Becoming More Conservative? - Seo Hyun-jin

[3] The Influence of BBK After the Presidential Election - Lim Sung-hak

[4] President-elect Lee Myung-bak's Honeymoon Effect - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The 17th Presidential Election and Media Effects - Kim Sung-tae

President-elect Lee Myung-bak's Honeymoon Effect

- A Factor of Crisis and Opportunity

Jeong Han-wool (Deputy Director, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center)

□ The honeymoon effect refers to the 초당파적 (non-partisan) high support extended to a new president in the early stages of their term.

□ 86.3% expect President-elect Lee to govern well, but this is not blind faith.

- Public sentiment is lukewarm towards major policy agendas; expectations are low regarding private education costs and inter-Korean relations.



Eighty to ninety percent of the public offers high support and expectations to the newly elected president, regardless of whom they voted for in the previous election. Even the opposition party finds it difficult to launch political attacks against the administration. This is known as the honeymoon effect. A new president can effectively advance reform policies embodying their governing philosophy or core campaign pledges by leveraging this honeymoon effect, maintaining cooperation from the opposition party and media.

However, it is practically impossible to govern in a manner that satisfies all citizens and the opposition party until the end of the term. As time passes, expectations for the new president turn into disappointment, and political conflicts with the opposition party intensify. The president's approval rating begins to decline. Generally, the greater the public's expectations, the steeper the fall.

A panel survey conducted immediately after the election confirms the public's non-partisan expectations for President-elect Lee Myung-bak. 86.3% of all respondents expect President-elect Lee to govern well. 73% of those who voted for candidate Chung Dong-young and 83.5% of those who voted for candidate Lee Hoi-chang also expect Lee Myung-bak to perform well as president.

In specific policy areas, the public's assessment of President-elect Lee Myung-bak is realistic to the point of seeming objective. Only 46.4% of respondents believe that economic polarization will improve under President-elect Lee, and only 39.6% expect labor-management relations to improve. Even when combining responses for housing prices stabilizing and falling, the figure is only 40.2%. The public was particularly indifferent towards President-elect Lee regarding the issues of private education costs and inter-Korean relations. Only 20.3% and 22% of respondents, respectively, expected improvement compared to the current administration; the remaining 80% anticipated little change or a worsening situation.

Consequently, the public's assessment of President-elect Lee Myung-bak indicates high overall expectations while not placing excessive hope on specific issues. This contrasts with past public opinion surveys where new presidents consistently received high expectations across the board and in specific policy areas. It appears to be a result of the public having experienced how blind faith in new presidents during previous administrations could lead to greater disappointment. Indeed, President-elect Lee Myung-bak had numerous campaign pledges during the election period, such as the "747" pledge and the "Era of $30,000 in per capita income," which stimulated public expectations.

In this survey, the public has clearly demonstrated that they hold neither blind faith nor blind distrust towards the new president, expressing both expectations and realistic concerns simultaneously. This does not solely act as a destabilizing factor for President-elect Lee Myung-bak. The pragmatic approach emphasized by President-elect Lee Myung-bak would be difficult to flourish amidst blind faith and unconditional distrust. It is now time to soberly re-examine the pledges made during the election campaign. It is time to refine concrete policy proposals that are feasible at a realistic level as perceived by the public.

[Figure 1] Expectations for President-elect Lee Myung-bak's Governance (%)

* Don't know/No answer not shown

[Figure 2] Prospects for Improvement in Key Policy Areas Under the Next Administration: "Will Improve" Response Rate (%)

* This is the response rate for "Will Improve" among "Will Improve," "No Significant Impact," "Will Worsen," and "Don't Know/No Answer."

** For housing prices, this is the combined rate of responses indicating "Will Stabilize" and "Will Fall" among "Will Rise," "Will Stabilize," "Will Fall," and "Don't Know."

[Table 3] Expectations for Lee Myung-bak's Governance by 17th Presidential Election Vote (%)