Opinion Briefing 24-3: Three Key Variables That Will Determine the Election Outcome

Opinion Briefing Issue 24: "Public Sentiment is Volatile; Whether it Translates to Shifting Votes Remains Uncertain"

Topic 1: The Two Pillars of Shifting Public Sentiment: Disappointment and Scrutiny - Kwon Hyuk-yong

Topic 2: It is Difficult to Predict Whether Shifting Public Sentiment Will Translate into Votes in the General Election - Jeong Han-wool

Topic 3: Three Variables for Predicting the General Election Results - Kwon Hyuk-yong & Jeong Han-wool

Three Key Variables That Will Determine the General Election Outcome

Kwon Hyuk-yong · Jeong Han-wool

Although there is currently a gap between public sentiment, characterized by disappointment with the new government, and the vote intention for the general election, where the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party maintain a significant lead, there remains room for change in the remaining 20-odd days until the election. To predict the outcome, it is necessary to identify the variables that warrant attention during the election campaign.

1. Economic Variables in the General Election: A Double-Edged Sword – The Responsibility for Economic Decline Now Lies with the New Government

In the previous election, the economy was one of the most significant issues that enabled the victory of Grand National Party candidate Lee Myung-bak. This was because the public's desire to hold the previous Roh Moo-hyun administration accountable for its economic failures translated into support for candidate Lee Myung-bak. Thus, at that time, the worse the public perceived the economy to be, the higher the support for the opposition candidate Lee Myung-bak (54%), while those who believed the economy had improved showed lower support (24.4%). The prominence of economic issues during the presidential election was a favorable factor for candidate Lee Myung-bak and the Grand National Party.

However, after the presidential election and the change in ruling parties, those who believe the national economy has improved are more likely to vote for a Grand National Party candidate in the general election (48.3%), while support drops to 33% among those who believe the economy has worsened. This indicates that the responsibility for the current economic situation is being attributed to the current government, not the Roh Moo-hyun administration. This situation is markedly different from the period immediately after the IMF crisis, when responsibility for economic issues could be placed on the Kim Young-sam administration rather than the Kim Dae-jung administration.

However, the economic dissatisfaction directed at the new government is not translating into support for the United Democratic Party. Among voters who believe the economy has worsened, the proportion intending to support the Democratic Party remains in the 30% range. This is likely because, as the election is held relatively early in the new government's term, the former ruling party cannot be entirely absolved of economic responsibility.

Nevertheless, the Grand National Party must remain vigilant due to the recent and ongoing issues of price instability, exchange rate volatility, and stock market fluctuations. The current domestic and international economic warning signs are not only severe but are also projected to persist for a considerable period, increasing the likelihood that changes in the economic situation will influence general election voting patterns. [Figure 11]

2. Pay Attention to the 36.9% Undecided Voters.

The undecided voters, who responded that they have no candidate to support or have not yet decided, constitute 36.9% of the electorate and represent a crucial variable that will determine the general election outcome. The fact that nearly four out of ten voters have not yet decided on a candidate implies that the overall election landscape could shift depending on the remaining campaign efforts. The outcome of the general election could be significantly influenced by the undecided voters, especially considering that regions with a high proportion of undecided voters are likely to be the most fiercely contested battlegrounds. Regionally, the undecided voter percentages are high in the Seoul metropolitan area and Chungcheong provinces, which are expected to gauge the overall trend of the election. By age group, undecided voters are more prevalent among younger generations, specifically those in their 20s to 40s. Interestingly, a significant proportion of undecided voters are found among those who approve of President Roh Moo-hyun's administration and those who are disappointed with the current government's performance. Among those who positively evaluated President Roh Moo-hyun's administration, 36% identified as undecided (compared to 29.1% among those who disapproved). Similarly, among those who disapproved of the current government's performance, 34.9% were undecided, while only 25.9% of those who approved had not yet decided on a candidate. Ultimately, the voting intentions of former ruling party supporters who do not view the Democratic Party as a viable alternative, and those who have defected from the new government, will shape the future election results. [Table 3]

Considering that regions where respondents have not yet decided on a preferred candidate are the key battlegrounds that will determine the direction of the upcoming general election, the competition among parties to win the votes of undecided individuals becomes even more crucial. Regionally, undecided voters are also concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area and Chungcheong region, which can indicate the overall trend of the election. By generation, the proportion of undecided voters is higher among the younger demographic, specifically those in their 20s to 40s. Interestingly, a significant portion of undecided voters comes from both the base supporting President Roh Moo-hyun's administration and those disillusioned with the current government's performance. Among those who positively evaluate President Roh Moo-hyun's governance, 36% are undecided, compared to 29.1% of those who negatively evaluate it. Similarly, among those who negatively evaluate the current administration, 34.9% are undecided, while 25.9% of those who positively evaluate it have not yet chosen a candidate. Ultimately, the voting direction of the former ruling party's supporters, who do not view the Democratic Party as a viable alternative, and those defecting from the new government will shape the future election results. [Table 3]

3. Committed Voters: The Gap Widens with Grand National Party Support at 46.8% and Democratic Party Support at 19.9%

When estimating the final vote share, it is essential to consider the intentions of those who are genuinely interested in the election and plan to vote. Among those who expressed high interest in the election, support for the Grand National Party stands at 52.8% and for the Democratic Party at 21%. Among those who are committed to voting, the Grand National Party garners 46.8% support, while the Democratic Party receives 19.9%, indicating a widening gap between the two parties. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the phenomenon where, despite signs of weakening support for the Grand National Party, strong support persists among committed voters. [Table 3]

Predicting the Actual Seat Distribution Requires Consideration of Numerous Variables, Including Candidate Competitiveness by District and the Electoral Impact of Nominated Candidates Who Face Rejection

The aforementioned factors involve a complex interplay of elements that are unfavorable, favorable, and mixed for the Grand National Party. To predict the general election results more accurately, a district-by-district assessment of each party's candidate competitiveness and separate analyses at the district level are necessary. In particular, it remains to be seen how many seats will be won by incumbent lawmakers who are denied nomination and subsequently run as independents or switch parties. Therefore, depending on which of these variables are emphasized or downplayed, voters' choices during the general election could either cancel each other out or lead to a sharp concentration of votes. Consequently, the situation necessitates close attention to the electoral competition between the two parties and objective environmental changes over the remaining 20-odd days.