[Public Opinion Briefing 26-3] The Future Path of the Grand National Party Defectors and President Lee Myung-bak's Leadership

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 26] "Post-General Election Political Landscape: The Need for Harmonious Leadership"

[1] General Election Public Sentiment as Seen Through Split Voting - Kim Min-jeon

[2] Lessons from Declining Voter Turnout, the Sentiment of Hidden Non-Voters - Lee Hyun-woo

[3] The Future Path of the Grand National Party Defectors and President Lee's Leadership - Seo Hyun-jin

[4] Strong Caution Against Pushing Forward with the Grand Korean Waterway Project - Yoo Sung-jin

The President Lee Myung-bak Administration's National Tasks After the General Election 1.

The Future Path of the Grand National Party Defectors and President Lee Myung-bak's Leadership

Seo Hyun-jin (Department of Social Education, Sungshin Women's University)

The choice made by President Lee Myung-bak and the Grand National Party leadership regarding the elected members of the Pro-Park Solidarity, who were formed as a result of intra-party conflict over nominations, serves as a barometer for changes in the way the President and the ruling party will manage state affairs after the general election. When asked about the future course of action for lawmakers who were excluded during the party nomination process and subsequently ran as candidates for the Pro-Park Solidarity or as independents and won, 33.3% of respondents answered that they should return to the Grand National Party, a higher proportion than those who favored forming their own party (27.2%) or merging with other parties (17.3%). Regarding the type of leadership desired from President Lee Myung-bak in the future, the largest group, 43.7%, desired a stable and harmonious leadership style. The proportions of voters desiring a strong national administration leadership (23.4%) or a practical CEO-type leadership (29.2%) were similar.

Notably, the proportion of voters who desire a president that strongly pushes forward national administration was higher (46.6%) among those who want a strong national administration leadership or CEO-type leadership than among those who want a consensus-based or CEO-type leadership. This can be interpreted as a psychological expectation of securing a solid base of support for the president through an expansion of the Grand National Party's seats in the National Assembly.

<Table 1> Future Path of Grand National Party Defectors and President Lee Myung-bak's Leadership Style

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<Table 2> Differences by Party Supporter (%)

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Looking at party supporters, unlike supporters of other parties, a majority of Grand National Party supporters (57.1%) and Pro-Park Solidarity supporters (55.2%) responded that they should be readmitted. However, a difference was observed between Grand National Party supporters and Pro-Park Solidarity supporters regarding President Lee Myung-bak's leadership. Among Grand National Party supporters, the proportions desiring consensus-based leadership (38.3%) and strong leadership (32.9%) were similar. In contrast, among Pro-Park Solidarity supporters, the proportion desiring consensus-based leadership (48.0%) was significantly higher than that desiring strong leadership (24.9%).

<Table 3> Regional Differences (%)

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Interesting phenomena are also found by region. The Daegu/Gyeongbuk constituency shows the highest rate of 55.1% wishing for the return of the Grand National Party, indicating that voters in this region are most favorable to the return of the Grand National Party. This region, which is the support base of former representative Park Geun-hye, appears to reflect the public sentiment of wishing for the strengthening of former representative Park's position within the Grand National Party due to the return of the proportional representatives of the Pro-Park Unity. However, considering that the proportion of respondents who want President Lee Myung-bak's strong leadership in the future is higher in this region than in other regions, it can be reconfirmed that the return of the defected party members to the Grand National Party is also related to President Lee's strong leadership.

In summary, the majority of the public wants a leadership of reconciliation and wants the defected members of the Grand National Party to return. A peculiarity is that the majority of respondents who want strong leadership also want the defected members of the Grand National Party to return. Furthermore, the supporters of the Grand National Party and the Pro-Park Unity, and the voters in Daegu/Gyeongbuk who want the defected members to return to the Grand National Party, are dreaming different dreams regarding President Lee Myung-bak's leadership. However, the important point here is that the public's expectations for President Lee Myung-bak's leadership style are related to the future of the defected members of the Grand National Party. The public's most desired leadership of reconciliation, strong leadership, or practical CEO-type leadership, and how President Lee will pursue them in a balanced manner in the future, is drawing attention.