[Public Opinion Briefing 31-2] Leadership Competition in Asia

[Public Opinion Briefing 31] Global/Regional Leadership Vacuum

[1] Global Leadership Vacuum

[2] Leadership Competition in the Asian Region

II. Leadership Competition in the Asian Region

∘ In the Asian region, Bush has relatively high support, Hu Jintao is relatively disadvantaged

• In the Asian region, trust in Chinese President Hu Jintao is lower than trust in U.S. President Bush

• Chinese respondents trust North Korean leader Kim Jong-il the most. Kim Jong-il 57%, Bush 41%, Fukuda 40%

President Bush, who is competing for leadership in the Asian region, receives many negative responses globally indicating a lack of trust, but his evaluation is relatively favorable among the citizens of Asian countries. Particularly noteworthy are the favorable responses towards Bush among the citizens of India and China, emerging economic powers with the U.S. market as their backdrop. Forty-five percent of Indians responded that they trust President Bush, a higher trust rating compared to Chinese President Hu Jintao (35%) or Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda (32%).



The proportion of Chinese citizens who trust President Bush (41%) is relatively high compared to other countries, despite China being considered a potential competitor to the U.S. This suggests a growing positive perception of Western leaders as economic exchanges with global markets, including the U.S., expand. Thailand also shows a relatively favorable attitude towards the U.S. Thirty-five percent of respondents expressed trust in President Bush, which, while lower than in India, is a higher evaluation than that given to Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda (30%) or President Hu Jintao (25%).

The results indicate that President Hu Jintao's leadership receives high trust only from South Koreans (56%) in the Asian region; elsewhere, his leadership is not significantly recognized. Ultimately, for President Hu Jintao to exert leadership in the Asian region, he needs to make greater efforts to win the hearts of Asians.



Interestingly, 57% of Chinese respondents selected North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as the leader they trust the most. While China is currently expanding its economic openness and international cooperation, this result appears to reflect the lingering favorable sentiment towards North Korea, a traditional ally during the Cold War era, among a majority of the public. Following closely, Australian Prime Minister Rudd, with whom economic exchanges have rapidly expanded recently, received a positive evaluation of 52%.

∘ South Koreans prefer leaders of Australia/China over allied leaders

Rudd (Australia) 61%, Hu Jintao 56%, Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda 40%, Bush 30%, Kim Jong-il 12%

In South Korea, with the exception of Kim Jong-il, President Bush of the U.S. received the lowest level of trust. Only 12% of respondents expressed trust in Kim Jong-il, followed by President Bush at 30%. Despite the prevailing anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korean society, Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda received a trust rating of 40%, a favorable evaluation compared to previous prime ministers. This is likely due to his relatively cautious stance on issues such as visiting the Yasukuni Shrine. However, compared to leaders of other countries, his evaluation cannot be considered high. The low trust South Koreans show towards leaders of allied nations such as the U.S. and Japan is likely to pose a significant burden for the Lee Myung-bak administration, which is pursuing the strengthening of alliances with these countries.

However, the current East Asian landscape necessitates a complex diplomatic strategy that builds networks among various countries, rather than a reliance solely on alliance strategies with specific nations. The recent shift towards a strategic partnership with China and efforts to strengthen relations with Australia, a key player in the Asia-Pacific region, can be positively assessed. The fact that a majority of South Koreans expressed trust in Chinese President Hu Jintao and Australian Prime Minister Rudd can be viewed favorably from South Korea's perspective, as it indicates the importance of striving to establish friendly cooperative networks with multiple countries in the Asia-Pacific region, not just the U.S. and Japan.

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[Figure 1] Asian Trust Ratings of Leaders in Major Asian Countries (%)

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