[Briefing on Public Opinion 31-2] Leadership Competition in Asia

[Briefing on Public Opinion 31] The Vacuum of Global/Regional Leadership

[1] The Vacuum of World Leadership

[2] Leadership Competition in the Asian Region

II. Leadership Competition in the Asian Region

∘ In the Asian region, Bush has relatively high support, while Hu Jintao is relatively weak.

• In the Asian region, trust in Chinese President Hu Jintao is lower than trust in U.S. President Bush.

• Chinese people trust North Korean leader Kim Jong-il the most. Kim Jong-il received 57% approval, Bush 41%, and Fukuda 40%

President Bush, who is competing for leadership in the Asian region, receives many negative responses globally, indicating a lack of trust, but his evaluation is relatively favorable among the populations of Asian countries. Notably, favorable responses towards Bush are prominent among the people of India and China, emerging economic powers with markets tied to the U.S. In India, 45% of respondents expressed trust in President Bush, a higher rate compared to Chinese President Hu Jintao (35%) and Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda (32%).



The approval rate for President Bush among Chinese citizens (41%), considered a potential competitor to the U.S., is relatively high compared to other countries. This suggests a growing positive perception of Western leaders as economic exchanges with the global market, including the U.S., expand. Thailand also shows a relatively favorable attitude towards the United States. While the trust rating for President Bush in Thailand (35%) is lower than in India, it is higher than that for Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda (30%) and President Hu Jintao (25%).

The results indicate that Chinese President Hu Jintao's leadership is not widely recognized in the Asian region, with the exception of South Koreans, who show a high trust rating of 56%. Consequently, for President Hu Jintao to exert leadership in Asia, he needs to make greater efforts to win the hearts of Asians.



Interestingly, 57% of Chinese respondents cited North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as the leader they trust the most. While China is currently pursuing economic liberalization and broader international cooperation, the perception among a majority of its citizens reflects a lingering positive sentiment towards North Korea, a traditional ally during the Cold War. Australian Prime Minister Rudd, with whom economic exchanges have rapidly expanded recently, received a positive evaluation of 52%, followed by Kim Jong-il.

∘ South Koreans prefer leaders of Australia/China over allied leaders

Rudd (Australia) 61%, Hu Jintao 56%, Japanese PM Fukuda 40%, Bush 30%, Kim Jong-il 12%

In South Korea, excluding Kim Jong-il, trust in U.S. President Bush was the lowest. The response for trust in Kim Jong-il was the lowest at 12%, followed by President Bush at 30%. Despite the dominant anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korean society, Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda received a trust rating of 40%, a better evaluation compared to previous prime ministers. This is likely due to his relatively cautious stance on issues such as visiting the Yasukuni Shrine. However, compared to leaders of other countries, his evaluation cannot be considered favorable. The low level of trust shown by South Koreans towards the leaders of allied nations such as the U.S. and Japan is likely to pose a significant burden for the Lee Myung-bak administration, which is pursuing the strengthening of alliances with these countries.

However, the current East Asian landscape requires a complex diplomatic strategy that builds networks among various countries, rather than an alliance strategy solely dependent on a specific nation. The recent shift towards a strategic partnership with China and efforts to strengthen relations with Australia, a key player in the Asia-Pacific region, can be positively assessed. The fact that a majority of South Koreans expressed trust in Chinese President Hu Jintao and Australian Prime Minister Rudd is a positive development from South Korea's perspective, as it indicates the potential for building friendly cooperative networks with multiple countries in the Asia-Pacific region, not just the U.S. and Japan.

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[Figure 1] Asian Trust Ratings for Leaders of Major Asian Countries (%)

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