[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 27-1] Is a Third Oil Shock Coming?: Global Outlook for Oil Prices Over the Next 10 Years is Pessimistic

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 27] "Threat of Depleting Oil Resources: Perceptions and Alternatives"

[Topic 1] Is a Third Oil Shock Coming?: Global Outlook for Oil Prices Over the Next 10 Years is Pessimistic/P>

[Topic 2] International Public Opinion and the Political Economy of High Oil Prices

[Topic 3] Analysis of Korean Perceptions of Energy Threats

Topic 1. Is a Third Oil Shock Coming?: Global Outlook for Oil Prices Over the Next 10 Years is Pessimistic”

• Overall consensus on long-term oil price increase; clear divergence between oil-consuming and producing nations.

- 79% of 14,896 respondents across 5 continents and 16 countries anticipate oil prices will rise over the next 10 years (55% expect a significant rise).

- Citizens of OECD countries (USA, UK, France) have higher expectations for oil price increases, while citizens of major oil-exporting countries (Nigeria, former Soviet Union countries, Iran, etc.) have relatively lower expectations.

- Citizens of emerging economic powers, BRIX (China, India, Russia), have lower expectations for a significant rise in oil prices.

• Koreans are pessimistic about international oil prices (87% expect a rise: 56% expect a significant rise, 31% expect a slight rise), ranking 4th among surveyed countries.

[Figure 0] OPEC April 2008 Oil Market Report. Concerns about the era of high oil prices are severe among the global populace. The New York Times already raised the possibility of a third oil shock in November 2007. In fact, according to the monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the OPEC basket price surpassed $104 per barrel on April 14th. A staggering 79% of citizens across 16 countries on 5 continents believe this trend of high oil prices will continue for the next 10 years. This is the result of an international public opinion survey on human rights awareness, organized by WPO (World Public Opinion) and participated in by Kyunghyang Shinmun and the East Asia Institute (Director: Lee Sook-jong, Professor at Sungkyunkwan University) in Korea.

Notably, citizens of OECD countries, which lead the global economy, express stronger and higher concerns about long-term international oil price increases. Among Americans, 63% anticipate a significant rise in oil prices over the next 10 years, with an additional 23% expecting a slight rise. Similarly, 58% of British citizens expect a significant rise, and 27% expect a slight rise. French citizens, currently grappling with economic challenges, showed the highest level of concern, with a remarkable 81% responding that international oil prices will rise significantly over the next 10 years. In Korea, 56% expressed strong pessimism expecting a significant rise, and 31% expected a slight rise, totaling 87% who anticipate continued oil price increases in the long term.

Conversely, citizens of oil-exporting countries, who stand to benefit from rising international oil prices, held different views on future price trends. The proportion and intensity of expectations for international oil price increases were relatively lower in these nations. In major oil-exporting countries belonging to OPEC, such as Iran and Nigeria, as well as non-OPEC exporting countries like Russia, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine, the expectation of rising oil prices among Russian citizens was weaker compared to OECD countries. If public opinion in these countries becomes more pessimistic about oil price increases, it could lead to criticism of policies aimed at increasing oil production. This could exert social pressure on their governments to favor policies that freeze or reduce oil supply.

Meanwhile, citizens of China and India, emerging economic powerhouses, did not show particularly high expectations for oil price increases, despite their countries' high dependence on oil resources. In China, the combined percentage of respondents who answered that oil prices would rise significantly and slightly was 75%, falling short of the overall average of 79%. Among them, only 29% answered that prices would rise significantly, the lowest among the 16 surveyed countries, indicating the lowest level of concern about high oil prices. Indian citizens, who are in a resource diplomacy competition with China, showed a higher level of concern than Chinese citizens, but still below the average for the surveyed countries. The combined response of those expecting a significant rise (54%) and a slight rise (20%) was 74%.

Interestingly, citizens of Indonesia reported the highest proportion of respondents expecting continued international oil price increases over the next 10 years among most oil-exporting countries. Indonesia is one of the countries benefiting from oil exports amidst the recent competition for oil resources. This result appears to reflect the Indonesian public's desire for rising international oil prices.

[Figure 1] Pessimistic Outlook for Oil Prices in 10 Years Among Citizens of 16 Countries ("Significant Rise" + "Slight Rise" (%))

Note: Percentage of respondents who chose "will rise significantly" or "will rise slightly" among the options "will rise significantly," "will rise slightly," "remain the same," "will fall slightly," and "will fall significantly."