[Public Opinion Briefing No. 15-1] Analysis of Voter Support Changes for Presidential Candidates and Their Support Bases

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 15] The Grand National Party Primary and Voter Support Changes

[1] Analysis of Voter Support Changes for Presidential Candidates and Their Support Bases - Jeong Han-wool

[2] Tracking Unseen Public Opinion Changes Through Panel Surveys 1 - Kim Sung-tae

[3] Tracking Unseen Public Opinion Changes Through Panel Surveys 2 - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Once Progressive, Always Progressive? Once Conservative, Always Conservative? - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The Grand National Party Primary, What After? - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[6] Pro-Government Camp, Should They Unify? If So, How? - Seo Hyun-jin

[7] Evaluation of the Grand National Party Candidates' Verification Activities - Lim Seong-hak

1. Analysis of Voter Support Changes for Presidential Candidates and Their Support Bases:

Between the 1st Survey (April) and the 2nd Survey (August)

Jeong Han-wool (Deputy Director, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center)

□ Decline in Support for Lee Myung-bak and Chung Dong-young, Rise in Support for Park Geun-hye and Sohn Hak-kyu, Increase in Undecided Voters

Looking at the changes in voters' support for presidential candidates between the first survey (April 25-28) and the second survey (August 10-13), Lee Myung-bak's support rate faltered, Park Geun-hye's support rate slightly increased, and the ruling party candidates' support rates remained stagnant. In the case of Lee Myung-bak, who received 45.3% support at the time of the first survey announcement, his support dropped by 6.9 percentage points to 38.4% in the current survey. Park Geun-hye's support increased by 3.5 percentage points from 22.3% to 25.8%, narrowing the support gap to 12.6 percentage points. It is noteworthy that the proportion of undecided voters (no candidate to choose + don't know/no response) has increased from 13.3% to 18.4% (see article by Hyun-woo Lee).

[Figure 1] Trend of Changes in Presidential Support Rates Between 1st and 2nd Surveys (%)

Note) Comparison of response distributions over time for 2,911 individuals who responded to both the 1st and 2nd surveys.

□ Changes in Voting Preferences by Party Support

The most noticeable phenomenon in voting preferences by party support is the weakening of support for candidate Lee Myung-bak and the strengthening of support for candidate Park Geun-hye among Grand National Party supporters. This pattern is also observed among independent voters. However, another characteristic is the simultaneous decline in support for both candidates among supporters of pro-government parties.

However, subtle differences are detected within the pro-government party supporter base. Specifically, among supporters of the Uri Party, despite the withdrawal of support for candidates Lee and Park, support for candidate Lee Myung-bak remained at 31%, and support for candidate Park Geun-hye slightly increased to 11.8%. This means approximately 43% of Uri Party supporters still support a Grand National Party candidate. This appears to be a result of a negative attitude towards the United New Party, which is leading the pro-government unification efforts. The lack of significant change in the support rates for candidates Sohn and Chung, who are leading the United New Party, corroborates this.

Conversely, among supporters of the United New Party, which is leading the unification efforts, support for Lee (19%) and Park (6.5%) is weak, while support for candidate Sohn shows a relatively high level (31.4%). Among Democratic Party supporters, 47% supported candidates Lee and Park in the first survey, but this decreased to 30.6% in the second survey. In contrast, support for candidate Sohn Hak-kyu and other pro-government candidates showed a relative increase. However, the significant increase in undecided voters among pro-government party supporters appears to be partly due to a reserved attitude towards the unification movement of the United New Party.

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Support by Party Support (%)

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Note: Comparison of response distribution over time for 2,911 individuals who responded to both the 1st and 2nd surveys.

□ Changes in Voting Preferences by Generation

Candidate Lee's approval rating declined across all generations, while Candidate Park's increased by 7.5%p among those in their 40s and by 4%p among those in their 50s and older.

Candidate Lee experienced a relatively significant drop in approval ratings, particularly among those in their 30s and 40s. Candidate Park saw a substantial increase among those in their 40s and a moderate increase among those in their 30s and 50s and older. This suggests that the withdrawal of support from the 40s generation for Candidate Lee was largely absorbed by support for Candidate Park. The 20s generation showed no change, indicating they can be considered a significant group with a strong negative sentiment towards Candidate Park. It is noteworthy that the withdrawal of support for Candidate Lee is leading to an increase in undecided voters rather than a shift in support to Candidate Sohn Hak-kyu.

[Table 2] Changes in Presidential Support by Generation (%)

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Note) Comparison of response distribution by time for 2,911 individuals who responded to both the 1st and 2nd surveys.

□ Changes in Vote Preference by Occupation

By occupation, approximately 9 percentage points of support were withdrawn from candidate Lee Myung-bak among the white-collar class, which was classified as his support base. Among blue-collar workers, self-employed individuals, and housewives, support declined by 5-7 percentage points, while there was no significant decline among students. For candidate Park, support increased by about 6 percentage points among blue-collar workers, who tend to have lower incomes and lower educational attainment, while support increased by only 1-3 percentage points among other groups. Notably, support for candidate Park slightly decreased among students. Looking at occupations, candidate Sohn, among the pro-government candidates, saw a gradual increase in support, but it cannot be considered a significant change. Overall, it can be observed that the undecided group is noticeably increasing.

[Table 3] Changes in Presidential Election Support by Occupation (%)

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Note) Comparison of response distribution by time for 2,911 individuals who responded to both the 1st and 2nd surveys.

□ Changes in Presidential Election Preference by Region

In the Seoul metropolitan area, the withdrawal of support for candidate Lee Myung-bak was the smallest, and there were no significant changes in support for candidate Park or pro-government candidates. For candidate Park, support increased by more than 5 percentage points in the Chungcheong, Daegu-Gyeongbuk, and Busan-Gyeongnam regions compared to the first survey, confirming that a foundation is being laid to pursue candidate Lee in these areas. Support for candidate Lee, who was classified as having a regional base in the metropolitan area, fell by nearly 10 percentage points in the Gyeonggi/Incheon region. Unlike Seoul, where he still holds majority support, the Incheon/Gyeonggi region shows signs of potential defection from candidate Lee's support base.

From the perspective of the pro-government camp, the weakening of support for candidate Lee Myung-bak in Honam, the pro-government camp's largest regional base, from 32% to 25.3% is a welcome result. Although candidate Son Hak-kyu's support rate slightly increased from 9.4% to 12.0% in Honam, candidate Chung Dong-young's support rate is weakening in Honam. For pro-government candidates who must rely on the anti-Grand National Party sentiment, this can be seen as a disappointing result. Furthermore, despite the establishment of the United New Party and the subsequent declaration of merger with the Uri Party, the undecided voters have significantly increased from 22.3% to 32.5%, demonstrating the inadequacy of current pro-government candidates and parties to serve as a focal point for consolidating anti-Grand National Party sentiment. This result underscores the strong disappointment and antipathy towards the pro-government camp, which is as significant as the anti-Grand National Party sentiment. Honam remains in conflict.

[Table 4] Changes in Presidential Election Support by Region (%)

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Note: Comparison of response distribution over time for 2,911 individuals who responded to both the 1st and 2nd surveys.

□ Changes in Voting Preference by Ideology

20s·In their 30s, and in the Honam and Seoul Metropolitan regions, voters who had defected from the current government, which formed the support base for the birth of the current government during the 2002 presidential election, are significantly defecting again from candidate Lee Myung-bak. However, it is difficult to see these voters rapidly returning to support current leading candidates of the pro-government camp such as Son Hak-kyu or Chung Dong-young. Examining the support preference of the progressive stratum, another political base of the current government, reveals a similar pattern. Some progressives have shifted their support to candidate Park Geun-hye, and some have been absorbed by candidate Son Hak-kyu, but most appear to have adopted a hesitant, wait-and-see attitude.

[Table 5] Changes in Presidential Election Support by Ideology (%)

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Note) Comparison of response distribution by time for 2,911 individuals who responded to both the 1st and 2nd surveys.

□ Brief Summary

When examining the support distribution for the current presidential candidates from various angles, it can be observed that as the Grand National Party's vetting process progressed, a noticeable trend of withdrawal of support for candidate Lee Myung-bak emerged, with some of these individuals shifting their support to candidate Park Geun-hye and others to candidate Sohn Hak-kyu. However, the majority of those withdrawing support are becoming undecided voters, unable to find a suitable alternative. Notably, despite the visible progress of the pro-government coalition's integration schedule and the Grand National Party's primary competition moving beyond its heated phase, the support rates for the Grand National Party candidates still significantly surpass those of the pro-government candidates. Furthermore, even among the pro-government base (younger generation, progressive voters, Honam region), there are expressions of reserved support for pro-government candidates. Political engineering-based integration strategies alone have clear limitations in winning back even past supporters.