[EAI Opinion Memo] Key Characteristics of Presidential Candidates' Favorability Ratings

EAI Opinion Memo No.11

Author

Kim Jun-seok, Dongguk University

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In the 4th Presidential Panel Survey, among the favorability ratings for politicians on a scale of 0 to 10, the response rate for scores of 6-10, indicating favorability, was relatively higher for candidate Moon Jae-in (59.6%) compared to candidate Park Geun-hye (49.8%). This appears to reflect a tendency to view candidate Moon as a candidate lacking distinct characteristics, with neither a strong base of enthusiastic supporters nor a strong opposition, in contrast to candidate Park, whose favorability is clearly divided.

Park Geun-hye's Favorability: Clearly Divided

Favorability and unfavorability towards candidate Park Geun-hye are more pronounced than towards candidate Moon Jae-in. By age group, 64.0% of those in their 50s and 76.5% of those aged 60 and above showed favorability towards candidate Park, while the figures were approximately 32.2% and 36.5% for those in their 20s and 30s, respectively. Notably, the proportion of voters with extreme support and rejection for candidate Park is relatively large. While 18.4% of those in their 50s and 33.3% of those aged 60 and above showed enthusiastic support by rating candidate Park as 'very favorable' (10 points), 20.6% of those in their 20s responded that they 'very strongly dislike' candidate Park (0 points). Among those in their 30s (15.7%) and 40s (15.3%), dislike for candidate Park (0 points) was also in the double digits.

Among voter demographics who unconditionally expressed 'very strong dislike' (0 points) for candidate Park, the proportion was high among students (23.3%) and those in professional, managerial, and administrative occupations (20.3%). Geographically, respondents from the Honam region (21.4%) and those identifying as progressive (23.6%) were numerous. Among party supporters, those who supported the Democratic United Party (22.4%) showed a high rate of 'very strong dislike' (0 points) for candidate Park.

Moon Jae-in's Favorability: Moderate

Conversely, favorability towards candidate Moon Jae-in (scores of 6-10) was high among those in their 20s (67.1%), 30s (69.3%), and 40s (69.3%), and exceeded half even among those in their 50s (50.7%). While favorability towards candidate Moon among those in their 60s was around 40.2%, the proportion expressing dislike (scores of 0-4) was not high at 28.8%. For candidate Moon, there were neither a large base of enthusiastic supporters nor a significant number of voters expressing extreme dislike. Among the 20s to 40s, who are candidate Moon's main support base, the proportion of voters who responded 'very favorable' (10 points) was less than 7%. On the other hand, except for those in their 60s (9.9%), the proportion of voters expressing extreme dislike ('very strongly dislike', 0 points) for candidate Moon was less than 4%.

Among respondents who expressed extreme dislike (0 points) for candidate Moon, those engaged in agriculture, forestry, and fishing (10.8%) were relatively high, but no other demographic group based on education, income, or region of residence showed double-digit figures. Among respondents identifying as 'conservative' ideologically, the response rate for 'very strong dislike' (0 points) for candidate Moon was 4.5%. Among supporters of candidate Park, the rate of dislike for candidate Moon (0 points) was 7.9%, and among supporters of the Saenuri Party, it was 9%, both single digits. In contrast, the proportion of Democratic United Party supporters who responded 'very favorable' (10 points) was also not high at 18.9%.

Supporters of Candidate Park Dislike Former Candidate Ahn Chee-chong

The dislike among candidate Park Geun-hye's supporters appears to be directed not towards candidate Moon Jae-in, but towards former candidate Ahn Chee-chong. While the overall unfavorability towards former candidate Ahn (scores of 0-4) among all voters was 26.5%, lower than that for candidate Park Geun-hye (32.1%), it was higher than that for candidate Moon Jae-in (17.2%), who is from the opposition party. More than half of those aged 60 and above (50.1%) responded that they dislike former candidate Ahn, and extreme unfavorability, expressed as 'very strong dislike' (0 points), reached 32.6%. Among supporters of candidate Park, 23.2% expressed extreme dislike for former candidate Ahn, and among supporters of the Saenuri Party, 27.2% expressed extreme dislike.

Does the expression, 'The sister-in-law who tries to stop the fight is more hated than the mother-in-law who beats,' apply to the 2012 presidential election? Or is it that candidate Moon is failing to project a strong presence? Even now, more than a month after the presidential race narrowed to a 'Park-Moon' two-way contest, the variable of Ahn Chee-chong, who has withdrawn from the race, still appears to be overshadowing candidate Moon. ■

[Table 1] Politicians' Favorability: Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, Ahn Chee-chong

[Table 2] Proportion of Voters Expressing Extreme Affection or Dislike Towards Politicians by Age Group (Percentage of Total Responses)