[EAI Opinion Memo] The 18th Presidential Election: Causes and Prospects of an Extremely Close Race

EAI Opinion Memo No. 10

Author

Jeong Han-ul, Deputy Director, EAI Center for Public Opinion Research

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An Election Whose Outcome Remains Uncertain Until the End

Despite assurances of victory from each candidate's camp, voters perceive the election landscape as still fluid. In the EAI-SBS-JoongAng Ilbo-Korea Research Presidential Panel Survey (KEPS for the 18th Presidential Election) conducted one week before the election, 76.4% responded that the election outcome would only be known at the very end, while only 23.6% believed the race had been decided for either Candidate Park or Candidate Moon. This contrasts sharply with the 2007 election, where 50.2% responded that the winner had already been decided one week prior to the election. Considering that each candidate's approval rating exceeds 40%, voters are experiencing firsthand a situation where the outcome cannot be predicted even among their own supporters, given the extremely close race where the approval ratings are virtually indistinguishable (Figure 1).

Vote Shifts Over Two Weeks: 13.2% of Votes Shifted, Moon Jae-in Closes Gap with Support for Ahn Cheol-soo

In the 3rd Presidential Panel Survey conducted from November 25th to 27th, after Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal, Candidate Park Geun-hye led Candidate Moon Jae-in with 45.0% versus 43.2%. In the current survey, Candidate Park's support rose by 0.8%p to 45.8%, while Candidate Moon's support increased by 2.8%p to 46.0%, resulting in virtually equal standing. There appears to have been no significant change. However, among the 1,183 respondents who participated in both the November and December surveys, 13.2% either changed their preferred candidate or became undecided. While 94.0% of Park Geun-hye's supporters and 93.4% of Moon Jae-in's supporters maintained their preference from the November survey, the number who changed their support or became undecided was 13.2% (155 individuals). Among the undecided voters whose preferences shifted, the number of defectors from Park Geun-hye's support (32 individuals) and Moon Jae-in's support (33 individuals) in the November survey largely offset each other. In contrast, among the undecided voters in the November survey, 25 individuals (2.1% of all respondents) shifted to support Park Geun-hye, and 50 individuals (4.2% of all respondents) shifted to support Moon Jae-in, benefiting Moon Jae-in. Support from minor candidates also shifted more towards Moon Jae-in than Park Geun-hye (Figure 2).

Ahn Cheol-soo's Campaign Support: Half of Ahn Cheol-soo's Undecided Voters (6.0%) Shifted to Support Moon, Accounting for 3.2%

Considering that a significant portion of undecided voters increased after Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal, the rise in support for Candidate Moon among these undecided voters appears to be due to Ahn Cheol-soo's endorsement. Among the 312 individuals (27.9% of all respondents) who supported Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo in the 2nd Panel Survey in October, 195 individuals (62.5%) were absorbed by Candidate Moon Jae-in's support after Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal in the 3rd survey, 50 individuals (16.0%) shifted to support Candidate Park Geun-hye, and the remaining 67 individuals (21.5%) became undecided.

However, in the survey conducted from December 11th to 12th, one week before the election, after Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo began actively campaigning in support, 36 out of the 67 individuals who had become undecided after supporting Ahn Cheol-soo (53.7%) returned to supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in. When converted to a proportion of the total electorate, this represents a return effect of 3.2% (36 individuals) among the 6.0% (67 individuals) of Ahn Cheol-soo's undecided voters.

Furthermore, among the 50 individuals who had shifted their support from Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo to Candidate Park Geun-hye in the previous survey, 9 individuals (18.0% of those who shifted from Ahn to Park, 0.8% of all respondents) switched back to supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in in the current survey. Conversely, among the 195 individuals who supported Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo and were absorbed by Candidate Moon Jae-in's support in the previous survey, 181 individuals (92.8%) continued to support Candidate Moon Jae-in in the current survey, while 13 individuals (7.2% of those who maintained support from Ahn to Moon, 1.2% of all respondents) defected from supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in (Table 1).

Prospects for Ahn Cheol-soo's Undecided Voters Shifting to Moon Jae-in

What are the prospects for vote shifts in the remaining period? Let us focus on Ahn Cheol-soo's undecided voters, who are a key point of interest. We will compare the attitudes of 45 individuals who shifted to other candidates or became undecided, 52 individuals who shifted to support Candidate Park Geun-hye, and 239 individuals who returned to supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in, among the 312 individuals who supported Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo in the 3rd multi-candidate survey (October 11-14) of the previous presidential election, based on the 5th presidential election survey (December 11-12) in the multi-candidate format.

First, among the 239 individuals who supported Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo and returned to supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in in the December survey, their favorability rating towards Candidate Moon Jae-in has been increasing over time (October, November, December), particularly rising sharply from 6.56 points immediately after Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal in November to 7.33 points in the December survey. However, for those who shifted from supporting Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo to supporting Candidate Park Geun-hye or became undecided, their favorability towards Candidate Moon Jae-in hit a low point immediately after Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal in late November and showed a slight recovery by the week before the election. Nevertheless, it remains lower than during the period of unification between Candidate Moon Jae-in and Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo in October and does not exceed 5 points, indicating that negative sentiment towards Candidate Moon Jae-in has not been fully overcome (Figure 3). Given that their favorability rating for Candidate Park Geun-hye (6.56) exceeds their favorability rating for Candidate Moon Jae-in (4.96), it seems unlikely they will return to supporting Candidate Moon Jae-in. In the case of undecided voters, their favorability rating for Candidate Park Geun-hye (4.11) is low, and their evaluation of Candidate Moon Jae-in (4.65) is higher than for Candidate Park, but their evaluations for both candidates fall below the midpoint of 5 points.

Furthermore, their political leanings indicate a strong consensus on the narrative of holding the current administration accountable. Among those absorbed by Moon Jae-in's support, 89.6% agreed. Among those who defected to Park Geun-hye's support and those who became undecided, the agreement rates were 62.8% and 60.0%, respectively, which are lower than the Moon Jae-in support group but still show a significant consensus on the need for accountability. Their response to voter turnout and Ahn Cheol-soo's campaign support for Moon Jae-in was lukewarm among those who defected to Park Geun-hye and Ahn Cheol-soo's undecided voters, suggesting this will be the biggest variable in this election.

While 90.8% of Moon Jae-in's steadfast supporters stated they would definitely vote, and a remarkable 95.0% positively evaluated Ahn Cheol-soo's support activities for Moon Jae-in, the group that defected to Park Geun-hye's support showed a relatively high intention to vote (76.9%) but a low positive evaluation (36.5%) of Ahn Cheol-soo's support activities for Moon Jae-in. Notably, among Ahn Cheol-soo's undecided voters, the positive evaluation of Ahn Cheol-soo's support activities fell short of a majority at 40.9%, and the proportion intending to vote definitely was also below half at 45.5%. In other words, while a strong sentiment for holding the administration accountable suggests a possibility of returning to Moon Jae-in's support, the anti-Moon sentiment or lukewarm voting intention makes it uncertain how many will return to Moon Jae-in's support and go to the polls. This is expected to be a key point of observation in this election (Figure 4).■

[Figure 1] Voter Assessment of the Election Landscape

[Figure 2] Vote Shifts from D-3 Weeks to D-1 Week

[Table 1] December Presidential Support by Type of Vote Change Among Ahn Cheol-soo Supporters in October-November (%)

[Figure 3] Change in Moon Jae-in Favorability by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Change Type (October (2nd Survey) - December (4th Survey))

[Figure 4] Agreement with Accountability Narrative / Intention to Vote / Evaluation of Ahn-Moon Support by Ahn Cheol-soo Support Change Type (October (2nd Survey) - December (4th Survey))