[EAI Opinion Memo] Decline in Party Support and Increase in Unaffiliated Voters

EAI Opinion Memo No. 2

Author

Kang Won-taek, EAI Civic Panel; Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University

An interesting point revealed in the 3rd survey of the 2012 Election Panel Survey, conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research from August 20th to 23rd, four days after the Saenuri Party's presidential primary concluded, is that party support ratings have significantly decreased compared to the period immediately after the general election.

As shown in <Table 1>, compared to before the general election, the Saenuri Party's support rating decreased by 5.4%P, the Democratic United Party by 8.8%P, and the Unified Progressive Party by 7.2%P. In contrast, the response 'no party to support' increased by a substantial 22.0%P.

The increase in unaffiliated voters may be partly due to the considerable time elapsed since the parliamentary elections, which require voters to choose a party. However, it also signifies that a considerable number of voters who supported a specific party during the general election did not do so with strong conviction.

Deepening Defection from Democratic and Progressive Party Supporters

38.1% of Democratic Party, 49.3% of Progressive Party Supporters Shift to Unaffiliated

So, to what extent have supporters of each party shifted to the 'no party to support' stance? As seen in <Table 2>, among those who stated they supported the Saenuri Party before the general election, 20.1% responded that they have no party to support.

In the case of the Democratic United Party, 38.1% expressed no party support, and for the Unified Progressive Party, nearly half, 49.3%, responded that they currently have no party to support. For the Unified Progressive Party, it appears that voters disillusioned by controversies such as the pro-North Korea debate or irregularities in proportional representation primaries have withdrawn their support.

Conversely, for the Democratic United Party, which had no major issues and is currently holding primaries for multiple candidates, it is a serious concern that nearly 4 out of 10 supporters have changed their minds. Overall, this indicates a significant rejection of existing political parties, with progressive voters in particular finding no suitable party to support. Of those who responded as having no party to support immediately after the general election, 75.2% still remain unaffiliated.

Expectations for Ahn Cheol-soo Among Shifted Unaffiliated Voters

So, which candidate do voters who have left their previously supported parties now support? <Table 3> shows the proportion of voters who shifted from supporting a specific party to having no party to support, and their preferred presidential candidate. Overall, a majority of those who shifted from supporting a particular party to being unaffiliated appear to have expectations for Professor Ahn Cheol-soo.

Of the voters who supported the Saenuri Party immediately after the general election, only about half, 54.3%, now support candidate Park Geun-hye. In contrast, 28.3% stated support for Professor Ahn Cheol-soo, and 1.8% supported candidate Moon Jae-in. Among those who shifted from supporting the Democratic United Party to having no party to support, 54.7% expressed support for Professor Ahn Cheol-soo.

Support for the Democratic United Party candidate, Moon Jae-in, was only 12.0%. Meanwhile, among those who shifted from supporting the Unified Progressive Party to having no party to support, 42.3% supported Professor Ahn Cheol-soo and 34.7% supported candidate Moon Jae-in. Among those who stated they had no party to support in both surveys, 39.3% also expressed support for Professor Ahn Cheol-soo.

The 'Ahn Wind' Originates from an Election Dominated by Anti-Party Sentiment

In this regard, two main characteristics can be identified. First, it is inappropriate to predict presidential election voting based on party support from the general election, as the proportion of voters who have defected from their previously supported parties is not insignificant. Second, there is a confirmed substantial dissatisfaction and disappointment with existing party politics. Regardless of the party, support ratings have significantly declined compared to the period immediately after the general election. Disappointment is particularly pronounced with parties in the progressive camp. A majority of these voters express expectations for Professor Ahn Cheol-soo, who has remained outside the political establishment. Ultimately, a significant factor behind the support for Ahn Cheol-soo appears to be the disappointment with existing party politics. ■

[Table 1] Changes in Party Support Ratings Between 2nd and 3rd Surveys

*Unaffiliated voters = No candidate support + Don't know + No response

[Table 2] Party Support Shifts Between 2nd and 3rd Surveys

[Table 3] Preferred Presidential Candidates Among Defectors from Party Support (%)