[North Korea and the World] Preview of the 2024 US Presidential Election

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vlhCwIcSRU

Video Script

Prospects for the U.S. Presidential Election and Trump's Potential Comeback

If Trump makes a comeback, the U.S. Democratic Party is likely to become highly radicalized. We cannot rule out the possibility that Trump's emergence could cause a seismic shift, fundamentally altering U.S. foreign policy. Welcome, and thank you sincerely for watching Park Won-gon's North Korea and the World. We previously covered the U.S. presidential election and discussed the implications of Trump's potential candidacy at that time. Today, we will examine the U.S. presidential election situation in more detail. With six months remaining, we must make very cautious projections about who will win.

There are still six months left, a considerable amount of time. Many things can happen, so I believe there are still many variables. With the understanding that predictions are inherently limited, I will proceed with very cautious forecasts. I recently reviewed polls from May 13th. As many of you know, the US presidential election ultimately hinges on the results in swing states. This poll surveyed six swing states, and to state the results upfront: Trump led in five states—Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania—while Biden led in Wisconsin.

For reference, Biden won all six of these states in the 2020 election. Therefore, this is a significant point. Looking solely at the six swing states, Biden can secure the 270 electoral votes needed to defeat Trump by winning just three of them: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Conversely, Trump's calculation is somewhat more complex. He must win Arizona and Georgia among these swing states. Additionally, he needs to win at least one more state from Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. While the overall structure is disadvantageous for Trump, the polls indicate he is leading in all but one of the six swing states, clearly placing him in a more favorable position. Furthermore, the overall trend also favors Trump. According to The New York Times' analysis, inflation in the US has halved in the past six months, and the stock market has risen by 25%. Despite these economic indicators being highly favorable for an incumbent president, Trump is winning in the swing states.

Trump's trial began in New York in April, which is clearly a disadvantage for him. Moreover, the Biden campaign has secured significantly more campaign funds than Trump's. Consequently, the Biden camp is investing heavily in these swing states for advertising. These efforts might yield some effect. However, despite these factors, several conditions clearly favor Biden, yet the overall assessment is that Trump is leading.

In particular, as I will elaborate further, even traditional Democratic voter bases, such as young people, Black individuals, and Hispanics, are showing a consistent trend of departing from the Biden-led Democratic Party. This is likely influenced by issues such as high inflation, illegal immigration, and the Israel-Gaza war. During his State of the Union address in March, Biden delivered a very strong speech, which led to a rebound in his approval ratings.

Analysis of Key Factors Behind Trump's Rising Approval Ratings

However, excluding that brief rebound, even when looking at the overall average, Trump's lead in swing states over Biden has been maintained. Today, I will delve deeper into how to interpret and understand this. As a reference, I will cite Fareed Zakaria. He is an Indian-American with considerable influence through his writings. One of his characteristics is his strong dislike for Trump. This is not personal animosity, but rather a consistent argument that Trump, as a figure and phenomenon, has a profoundly negative impact not only on the US but also on the world. I distinctly recall his clear statement on a program he hosted in 2016: 'Trump is a cancer on America.' He even said this in a public forum. Subsequently, from 2016 to 2020, during Trump's presidency, he meticulously detailed Trump's shortcomings. In a column published in The Washington Post on May 13th, this individual confessed that while he views Trump's emergence very negatively, as a scholar, he must acknowledge the possibility of Trump's election. He then offered some very insightful analyses.

First, he discusses the economy. Economic issues are paramount in any election, and for voters, the economy as they experience it is most crucial. Therefore, in a head-to-head contest between Trump and Biden, who is perceived as more capable of effectively addressing economic issues? A poll by US broadcaster MBC in January revealed that 22% more respondents believed Trump would handle the economy better than Biden. Biden, as the incumbent president, likely feels a sense of injustice, given the very positive overall economic indicators.

The unemployment rate is at its lowest, and inflation has significantly improved over the past six months, yet it seems this is not receiving adequate recognition. Moving to the second point: the culture war. Regarding who can better handle immigration issues, Trump also receives support, with over 35% believing he would manage it better than Biden. Immigration is one of the serious issues that Americans perceive, and they believe Trump would handle it much more effectively. Another issue is abortion. On June 25, 2022, the US Supreme Court ruled that there is no constitutional right to abortion. This decision profoundly shook American society and greatly benefited the Democratic Party, which advocates for abortion rights. However, this issue is not prominently featured in the current US presidential election. Because the US is a federal system, this issue is now decided by individual state governments following the Supreme Court's ruling. Consequently, it has not emerged as a federal-level agenda item determining the US presidential election, and its influence is relatively limited.

Another factor working against the Democratic candidate Biden is the visible division within the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is currently showing signs of division, particularly concerning the Israel-Palestine war. For instance, Senator Bernie Sanders has criticized the war in Gaza, even calling it Biden's Vietnam War. In this regard, the traditionally unified base of the Democratic Party is fracturing. Polls indicate that only 33% of Americans believe Biden is handling the Israel-Hamas war effectively. There is significant division even among the traditional supporters of the Democratic Party. How does this affect the US presidential election? Consider Michigan, one of the swing states I mentioned. With 16 electoral votes, it represents a substantial number of electoral votes and is a crucial state.

Although Biden won the Democratic primary in Michigan, 13% of voters cast blank ballots, indicating dissatisfaction among Arab-American voters with Biden's Middle East policy. If this issue is not resolved by November, while they are unlikely to vote for Trump, a significant number abstaining could ultimately benefit Trump. I believe these factors are directly influencing the US presidential election. Conversely, the Republican Party is unified. There are no dissenting voices against Trump within the Republican Party. We also question how much the judicial risks we discussed will impact the current situation. The most prominent example is the criminal trial for the hush-money payment, which began in April.

If Trump is found guilty, he could face a maximum sentence of four years in prison. It is possible that a verdict in the first trial could be reached before November. Naturally, Trump is likely to appeal, and in that case, a final judgment would not be rendered before the election. Fundamentally, the Republican base views this trial as highly unfair. According to a CNN poll, approximately over 50% of Americans believe Trump will not receive a fair trial. Core Republican supporters, in particular, hold a strong perception that Trump is being politically persecuted. Therefore, doubts are beginning to arise about the extent to which Trump's judicial risks will be a factor. Of course, the situation could change.

There are still about six months remaining, as I mentioned, so there are variables such as how voters' sentiments will shift if Trump is convicted, or the possibility of the Israel-Palestine war, the Gaza war, ending before then. However, one of the most critical factors is that when Americans are asked, 'Who is more competent, Trump or Biden?', Trump leads Biden by a significant 16% in May statistics. For comparison, in 2020, Biden led Trump by 9%. The primary reason for this perception is Biden's age.

Radicalization of the Democratic Party and Changes in Foreign Policy in the Event of a Trump Comeback

This issue of age is something that cannot be overcome. Competence, in this context, refers to the fundamental ability to govern, and the fact that Trump is leading by 16%, a difference from 2020, suggests that the broader American electorate perceives Trump more favorably. As of May, it is reasonable to cautiously conclude that Trump appears to have an advantage over Biden. Finally, I would like to add one more point. Although it may be premature, if Trump's comeback truly begins, the US Democratic Party is highly likely to become very radicalized. Progressive factions within the Democratic Party, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a key figure representing the progressive wing of the US, are likely to take over the Democratic Party. The Biden-centric Democratic Party has historically represented traditional Democratic values, focusing on the center. This was true for both foreign and domestic policy. However, these progressives hold very different views.

For example, they oppose liberalism and exhibit anti-interventionist and anti-hegemonic tendencies. In a way, this shares similarities with Trumpism, as if extremes are meeting. While their justifications and reasons differ, the outcomes can be similar. For instance, they advocate for reducing US military presence and intervention abroad.

South Korea's Response Strategies and Policy Recommendations

Consequently, they argue for minimizing the US military's role, withdrawing troops stationed abroad, and scaling down overseas military bases. This aligns with certain aspects that Trump might implement. If my predictions are correct, Trump's emergence could potentially trigger a seismic shift in the fundamental basis of US foreign policy. Therefore, how should we respond going forward? While there are still six months left, at this juncture, we must seriously consider the possibility of Trump's emergence and contemplate South Korea's response strategy. Our government is sufficiently considering this, and academia has already discussed it extensively, but I believe it is time to develop and implement more prudent and sophisticated contingency plans.

We sincerely thank everyone for watching.

Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies, analyzes the current state of the U.S. presidential election and argues that South Korea must now seriously consider the possibility of Trump's election and prepare its response strategies. He explains that in recent polls, Trump is leading in five out of six swing states, and while the Republican Party is uniting around Trump, the Democratic Party is divided. Director Park predicts that if Trump is re-elected, the Democratic Party is likely to become highly radicalized, and this could destabilize the foundations of U.S. foreign policy due to the polarization of American domestic politics.

■ Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

■ Produced and edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Research Fellow

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr