[Changing Korean Voters] Short Interview with the Author: ① Did the Choice of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters Determine the Presidential Winner?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGmtoGZetHY

The East Asia Institute (EAI) is operating the project <Changing Korean Voters>, which studies the 20th presidential election and Korean political reform tasks based on a presidential panel survey conducted with Korea Research. Following the release of the research team's special report confirming the current state of public sentiment, we are releasing a short interview video with the author to present key points on the trends of public sentiment changes revealed by this election.

■ Author: Yoo Jae-sung_Current Vice President of the Korean Political Science Association, Former President of the Korean Association of Party Studies, Professor at the Department of International and Area Studies, Keimyung University, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Texas at Austin. His research areas include political parties and elections, American politics, and political psychology. Recent papers include "An Analytical Essay on Downs' P: 'Prospect of Success' and 'Memory of Failure'" (2021), "Types and Motivations of Split Voting: Analysis of the 20th General Election" (2020), "Voter Types and Characteristics: Party Voters, Cross-Pressured Voters, Intermittent Voters, Habitual Non-Voters" (2020), and "How Does Framing Activate or Suppress Ideological Propensities?" (2019).

■ Contact and Editing: Jeon Ju-hyun _EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr

Video Script

This time, the East Asia Institute, EAI, asked Professor Ford on their channel, and emphasized the bandwagon effect, asking about the voters' choices that determine the winner. Did they realize this for the next opportunity? There are many analyses of the 20th presidential election, and professors have presented their findings. It seems that it did not significantly impact the overall trend. However, we confirmed the economic importance of our successful endeavors in the past three to four rounds. Moving forward, I believe that issues such as the presidential election will be a major focus, and I expect that hot topics and events will shape the public sentiment. In fact, the three main questions we are addressing are related to the presidential election, and the results were 48.4% to 47%.

Ultimately, each of these groups became a factor, and the fact that society is so evenly divided in policy indicates that there is no clear winner in Korean politics. Therefore, the presidential election will be a contest of balance. We are conducting interviews to understand this. To briefly explain, the voters who supported Ahn Cheol-soo ultimately had to choose a candidate. Some did not participate, or some moved in a different direction. However, they are moving in a unified direction. The question is in what proportion they will respond to the candidate's support. This is a crucial point. There is data on the effectiveness of Ahn Cheol-soo's support, and the subsequent speed of their decisions. This data is meaningful.

However, regarding the panel survey, we asked about their choices. If we analyze the data, we can see that after the election, many voters chose candidate A with a ratio of 32.4%. This is a significant difference. If we analyze this further, we can see that the supporters of Ahn Cheol-soo, regardless of their initial choice, ultimately voted for candidate Yoon with a ratio of 32.4%. This is a considerable difference.

This means that the difference is about 20%, which is a significant margin. It is difficult to interpret this data directly, but it is possible that the voters who supported Ahn Cheol-soo at the time, and those who supported other candidates, could have contributed significantly to the election outcome. This is a complex issue. In fact, it is a very difficult question to answer definitively.

Some voters who supported Ahn Cheol-soo voted for other candidates, and this had a significant impact. However, the effect of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters was almost negligible. This is a comparison with the other candidates. However, I would like to mention one thing: it is not about whether people are generally undecided or not. It is about whether they are willing to vote for a specific candidate. Therefore, it is not about a particular generation, but rather about the overall trend.

If we look at the accuracy of the 108 responses, it is quite impressive. Do you have any further questions about the panel survey or the data?