A New Alliance for the 21st Century: From Cold War to Complexity

Reading the Complex 21st Century

Today, we are living in the complex 21st century. The bipolar world centered on the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, the unipolar world of American dominance after the Cold War, and the relative decline of Pax Americana and the rise of new middle powers, including China, are leading to a multipolar international order, symbolized by the G20 following the G8. The changes are not merely confined to multipolarity. Complexity is further accelerating with the emergence of international organizations, regional communities like the European Union, transnational actors such as international NGOs and multinational corporations, and local governments and civic organizations as substantive actors on the international stage. Is it only the cast of characters? The stage of international politics is also becoming multi-dimensional and complex. Moving away from the past simple stage centered on security or economy, it is transforming into a triple complex stage composed of the central stage of security, prosperity, environment, and culture, the foundational stage of information and knowledge, and the upper stage of governance.

This era of complexity shows complex patterns where conflict and cooperation, crises and development, cooperation and prosperity, and coexistence intertwine and coexist, rather than a simple choice between conflict and cooperation. The Cold War mindset of 'friend or foe' can no longer guarantee national survival and prosperity.

21st Century Alliances: Weaving a Complex Web for Survival and Prosperity

In this era of complexity, the solution for alliance strategy can be found in a web-based approach that encompasses diverse actors and multi-layered issues. An approach focused solely on states or military affairs cannot meet the demands of this complex era. Furthermore, considering our reality of continued division from the Cold War, the understanding and development of a new complex web alliance strategy is urgently needed.

We must strengthen the ROK-US military alliance, which has been the cornerstone of our survival strategy, to align with the 21st century. While maximizing the military alliance, we must extend the web to encompass various actors and multi-layered stages. Additionally, the development of new webs is necessary. China's relationship is particularly important. By broadening the web as much as possible, we must foster a strategic friendly cooperative relationship that effectively becomes a 21st-century alliance. Concurrently, North Korea must also be integrated into this complex web. Only when North Korea is properly positioned within the new alliance web can we anticipate peace and development on the Korean Peninsula. Alongside this external web construction, a meticulous and robust domestic web is essential.

《A New Alliance for the 21st Century: From Cold War to Complexity》

The "National Security Panel," the foreign and security policy research team at the East Asia Institute (EAI), has finally published its third monograph, compiling the results of over a year and a half of collective discussion and research. This book, authored by a total of 11 scholars affiliated with the EAI National Security Panel, examines the emergence of complex alliances in the contemporary world from a global historical perspective and discusses practical tasks for the Korean Peninsula. To this end, it begins with a general overview of complex alliances and the history of alliances, followed by an in-depth analysis of the US's new alliance strategy, and discussions on alliance policies and transformations in East Asia (Japan and China), Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.

In the context of the unresolved legacy of the Cold War and the geopolitical position of the Korean Peninsula, where the interests of surrounding powers such as the US, China, Japan, and Russia intersect, a new external framework of multi-layered complex alliances, rather than a distinction between friend and foe, is essential. By posing the theme of "complexity" that will sustain survival and prosperity in the 21st century, we hope to contribute to more creative and realistic discussions and productive policy development.

Table of Contents

Part I: Introduction

Chapter 1: Complex Alliances in the 21st Century: Formation and Development | Ha Young-sun

Chapter 2: The History of Alliances | Chun Jae-sung

Part II: The United States

Chapter 3: The US Conception of the 21st Century Alliance Order: A Historical Perspective | Ma Sang-yoon

Chapter 4: The Obama Administration's Foreign and Security Policy Stance and Key Agendas | Lee Sang-hyun

Chapter 5: The US Security Implementation Strategy | Lee Dong-sun

Chapter 6: The Obama Administration's Alliance Policy toward East Asia and the Korean Peninsula | Shin Sung-ho

Part III: East Asia

Chapter 7: Japan's 21st Century Alliance Strategy: Power Shifts, Transformations, and Rebalancing | Son Yeol

Chapter 8: China's 21st Century Alliance Policy: Changes and Continuities | Cho Young-nam

Part IV: Europe and the Middle East

Chapter 9: Transformation of US-Europe Alliance Relations in the 21st Century | Kim Jun-seok

Chapter 10: Changes and Prospects in Russia's Alliance and Partnership Policies in the 21st Century | Shin Bum-sik

Chapter 11: Worldviews and Alliances in the Middle East | In Nam-sik

Appendix

For the convenience of our readers, we are releasing parts of the monograph's manuscript.