[America Future 2030 - The Future of American Hegemony: Where is America Headed After Trump?] V. The Current State of U.S. Foreign Policy Under the Trump Administration and the Future of America

Editor's Note

As the fifth report in the "America Future 2030" special commentary series, a working paper by Professor Jeon Jae-seong, Director of the EAI Center for National Security and Professor at Seoul National University, analyzing the framework of U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration and discussing its future has been published. In this paper, the author focuses on three structural factors of the international system as key variables for discussing the Trump administration's foreign policy: (1) the trend of neoliberal globalization, (2) the relative weakening of hegemony within the U.S.-led liberal order, and (3) China's economic rise and U.S.-China conflict. The author projects America's hegemonic capacity and intentions based on hegemonic theory. Consequently, the author argues that America's future task requires strengthening systemic flexibility to enable the U.S.-led liberal world order to uphold the existing rules-based order while simultaneously accommodating China's elevated international status, and to facilitate the mitigation of right-wing populism and the restoration of democracy.

※ The following is the introduction to this working paper. For the full text, please refer to the attached file below.

Introduction

Three years after President Trump's election, various aspects of his administration's foreign policy have become evident. The Trump administration has expressed critical views for various reasons regarding many policies pursued by the United States since World War II, and has indeed brought about significant policy changes. It has self-critiqued many international institutions established under U.S. leadership, at times withdrawing from them, and has unilaterally altered international regimes that formed the basis of a stable international order as a hegemonic power.

It has not hesitated to criticize alliances that were the axis of the global military order, demanding increased cost-sharing and urging allies to increase their military spending. In practice, it has withdrawn troops from Syria to reduce America's military burden. Under the banner of making America great again, it has strengthened anti-immigrant sentiment, pursued the construction of a border wall to block immigration, and relied on populism that opposes the trend of globalization. While criticizing China's unfair trade practices, it has initiated a trade war, making efforts to reduce America's trade deficit with China on one hand, and pursuing a comprehensive strategy toward China that appears to be checking China's rise on the other.

Although President Trump's election was unexpected for many, his administration's foreign policy also presents a phenomenon that requires new interpretation. Furthermore, it is an important question whether these U.S. policies will continue beyond the Trump administration, and whether the exclusive "America First" approach, termed "Trumpism," and the changes to the existing order will persist after President Trump.

This paper aims to provide a new framework for analyzing the foreign policy of the Trump administration and to discuss key variables for future U.S. foreign policy by focusing on the structural factors of the international system.

■ Author: Jeon Jae-seong_Director of the EAI Center for National Security and Professor at Seoul National University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University and has served as a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Unification. His main research areas include international political theory, international relations history, the ROK-U.S. alliance, and Korean Peninsula studies. His major works include "Threats of War and Peace Between the Two Koreas" (co-authored), "Is Politics Moral?", and "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory."

■ Management and Editing: Lee Young-hyun EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 207) ylee@eai.or.kr

[EAI Commentary] is a commentary series designed to provide a platform for discourse where experts from various fields can present in-depth analyses and policy recommendations on major domestic and international issues. Please cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institution unaffiliated with any political faction. The claims and opinions expressed in reports, journals, and books published by EAI are not attributable to EAI and solely represent the views of the respective authors.

Attachment: 5.Jeon Jae-seong_The Current State of U.S. Foreign Policy Under the Trump Administration and the Future of America.pdf