[America's Future 2030: The Future of American Hegemony: Where is the US Headed After Trump?] III. American Electoral Politics and the Future of the US

Editor's Note

This is the third report in the "America's Future 2030" special commentary series. Professor Min Jeong-hoon of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy has published a working paper discussing the impact of political polarization in the US on the 2016 US presidential election and the 2018 midterm elections, and forecasting the future of American electoral politics. In this paper, the author argues that amid deepening polarization, US political parties are focusing on solidifying the support of their party's voters and maximizing turnout, rather than trying to sway the votes of independent voters or those who support the opposing party. Through an empirical analysis of the factors determining voting decisions in the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterm elections, the author emphasizes the effectiveness of an electoral strategy focused on mobilizing party supporters and the continued strong influence of party identification on voter behavior. The analysis concludes that this status quo will likely persist or intensify after the Trump administration, unless a strong incentive for change emerges.

※ The following is the introduction to this working paper. For the full text, please refer to the attached file below.

Problem Statement

It has been nearly three years since Donald J. Trump, a Republican political outsider, entered the White House in November 2016, advocating for "America First." Since his inauguration, President Trump has consistently attempted to implement his key policy agenda, including protectionist trade policies and stringent immigration policies. The driving force behind President Trump's policy initiatives is the conservative white electorate that enabled his White House victory. Based on the support of this base, President Trump continues to pursue his core "America First" campaign promises to achieve re-election and political success (Min Jeong-hoon 2016).

What are the implications of President Trump's political behavior—achieving White House entry through base mobilization in the 2016 election and continuously striving to satisfy his core supporters—for American electoral politics? What is the background behind Trump's use of a base mobilization strategy? Is Trump's electoral strategy exceptional, and will electoral strategies change after the Trump administration? In other words, what characteristics will American electoral politics exhibit in the future?

To answer these questions, this paper discusses the impact of political polarization in the United States on American electoral politics. Polarization, which re-emerged in American politics in the 1970s, has been intensifying, bolstered by factors such as the increased influence of party identification. With the electorate divided into increasingly polarized parties, parties are concentrating their efforts on solidifying the support of their own voters and maximizing turnout, rather than attempting to sway the votes of independents or those who support the opposing party. The results of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterm elections confirmed the effectiveness of electoral strategies focused on mobilizing party supporters and the continued strong influence of party identification on voter behavior. This situation suggests that the impact of party polarization on voter choices will continue or intensify in the future, unless strong incentives for change emerge.

■ Author: Min Jeong-hoonProfessor, Department of American Studies, Korea National Diplomatic Academy. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Georgia and previously served as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Northeastern State University. His primary research areas include American politics, ROK-US relations, and North Korea-US relations. His recent publications include "Assessment and Outlook of the 2nd North Korea-US Summit," "President Trump's Political Objectives and the Denuclearization Process of North Korea," "The Emergence of Trump and Security in Northeast Asia," "Vote Determinants in Korean Gubernatorial Elections," "Trump's America First Policy and Issues in ROK-US Security Relations," "Do Campaigns Matter Outside the United States?", and "Equilibrium and Enlightenment in Korean Presidential Elections."

■ Contact and Editing: Lee Young-hyun EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 207) ylee@eai.or.kr

[EAI Commentary] is a commentary series designed to provide a platform for experts from various fields to present in-depth analyses and policy recommendations on major domestic and international issues. Please cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institution, independent of any partisan interests. The claims and opinions expressed in reports, journals, and books published by EAI are not attributable to EAI and represent solely the views of the respective author.

Attachment: 3.Min Jeong-hoon_American Electoral Politics and the Future of the US.pdf