[America's Future 2030: The Future of American Hegemony: Where is America Headed Post-Trump?] II. Demographic and Cultural Shifts in the U.S. and America's Future

Editor's Note

As the second report in the "America's Future 2030" special commentary series, a working paper analyzing how the definition of "whiteness" in the U.S. has evolved and projecting the future of American racism has been published. The author, Professor Lee Soo-young of Hanyang Cyber University, analyzes the formation of "whiteness" and its expansiveness and exclusivity through U.S. Census data from the 1790s to the present. While the definition of "whiteness," initially confined to Anglo-Saxon Europeans, has expanded to include European whites, including those from Southern and Eastern Europe, the author explains that exclusionary strategies against non-whites are still subtly employed. Furthermore, the author argues that these exclusionary strategies became explicitly apparent with the rise of Trump, and discusses whether it is possible for Americans of non-European immigrant descent to be integrated into the mainstream through the expansion or transformation of "whiteness," which is related to the future of American racism.

※ The following is the introduction to this working paper. For the full text, please refer to the attached file below.

I. Introduction

In March 2015, the United States Census Bureau released the report "Projection of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014-2060", presenting an infographic, as shown in [Figure 1]. This highlights one of the most noteworthy facts in the report: if current demographic trends continue, "White" individuals may become a minority by 2044, and this tipping point could be reached 24 years earlier if considering only the population under 18. The demographic projection that "White" people, who have historically constituted the majority and maintained their position as the mainstream in the U.S. since its founding, could become a "minority" in the near future is being reproduced and disseminated in various ways, influencing American society. One such manifestation is the phenomenon of "white nationalism," which began to gain prominence with the rise of Trump in 2016.

[Figure 1] "Projecting Majority-Minority: Non-Hispanic Whites May No Longer Comprise Over 50 Percent of the US Population by 2044”

Historically, periods of radical political and economic change in the U.S. have seen an intensification of white supremacy as a defensive mechanism for whites to protect their vested interests (Min, Jeong-hoon 1). The demographic projection that whites may become a numerical "minority" in about 30 years was perceived as a potent threat to their privileged status. As political scientist Diana Mutz argues, it is difficult to attribute Trump's support among white working-class men in the 2016 election solely to economic factors such as the threat to their stable jobs due to changes in the industrial structure of late capitalist society and the increase in immigrants in the latter half of the 20th century. In other words, the rise of white nationalism centered around Trump is rooted in "non-economic" factors, such as a "vague" fear of losing the privileged position that the "White" group has enjoyed as the mainstream in the U.S. (Mutz, 2018). This sense of crisis, regardless of empirical evidence regarding the actual negative impact of future demographic changes on U.S. national competitiveness or the lives of "Whites," appears to have led to strong support for Trump's immigration restrictions.

Then, who exactly does the term "White" in the U.S. refer to, as it circulates in various contexts? Historically, the meaning of "whiteness" in the U.S. has not been fixed. Particularly, the category of "whiteness," a core condition for being an "authentic American," has been subject to cultural, legal, and political debates, and its meaning has been continuously redefined in the process. In other words, the category of whiteness is closely linked to "American identity," functioning both to recognize someone as an "authentic American" and, simultaneously, as a basis for discriminatory exclusion of the "un-American." Therefore, this study seeks to examine how the category of "whiteness" has been historically redefined from the perspectives of its expansiveness and exclusivity. This is expected to provide a crucial clue as to what direction the anti-immigrant sentiment and white nationalism, among the most significant issues in the U.S. today, may offer for the future formation of American national identity.

■ Author: Lee Soo-young_Professor of English at Hanyang Cyber University. She holds a Ph.D. in American Studies from the University of Texas at Austin. Her research interests include American ethnic minorities, minority cultures, U.S. immigration history, Asian American literature/culture, and minority identity and gender politics. Recent publications include "Mapping Korean American Literary Studies in Korea 1994-2016" (2018) and "Masculinity First, Asian After: Justin Lin's Strategies to ‘Mainstream’ a New Generation of Asian American Men." (2018).

■ Management and Editing: Lee Young-hyun EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 207) ylee@eai.or.kr

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Attachment: 2.Lee Soo-young_US Demographic and Cultural Shifts and America's Future.pdf