Public Opinion Briefing No. 67-2: Analysis of Party Support Ratings / Investigation of Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook

Public Opinion Briefing No. 67: Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. MB's Approval Rating Ends on an Upward Trend: 44.1% Positive Evaluation, a 4.9%p Increase from the Previous Month

2. Party Support Ratings: Grand National Party 28.1% / Former PM Han Investigation: "Political Intentions Involved" 48.7%

Party Support Stagnant: Grand National Party 30.7%→ 28.1%, Democratic Party 21.4%→19.9%, Unaffiliated 24.0%→ 30.4%

Grand National Party Support Ratings Stagnant Despite Rising Presidential Approval Rating

Opposition Parties Attempting a Reversal Through the Investigation of Former PM Han Also Experience Stagnant Support Ratings

According to the party support rating survey results from the East Asia Institute (EAI) and Korea Research's Regular Public Opinion Barometer, despite the rise in the president's approval rating, the Grand National Party's support rating has declined since the political climate surrounding the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun in June, and the Democratic Party's support rating has hovered around the 20% range. There have been no significant changes in the support ratings of the ruling and opposition parties. The Grand National Party's support rating, which was 30.7% in the previous month's survey, slightly decreased to 28.1% in the December survey. The Democratic Party also received 19.9% support in this survey, falling short of the 21.4% support in the November survey. The Democratic Labor Party followed with 5.8%, the Pro-Park Alliance with 4.4%, and the Liberty Forward Party garnered only 1.7% support.

[Figure 1] Party Support Ratings (November-December) (%)

[Table 1] Changes in Party Support Ratings (February-December 2009) (%)

* The survey on June 5 was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) jointly conducted by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.

** First asked in the December survey.

*** Combined value of 'No party support' and 'Don't know/No response'.

Grand National Party Maintains Support from Only 50% of Presidential Supporters

Democratic Party Absorbs Only 28.7% of Presidential Critics and 24.6% of Progressives

In the case of the Grand National Party (GNP), despite the recent rise in presidential approval ratings, it has failed to translate the expansion of the presidential support base into an expansion of its party support base. Rather, the presidential support base significantly decreased from 62.1% in the November poll to 50.3% in this poll. This appears to reflect dissatisfaction that the GNP has not been able to support the government's will to revise the Sejong City plan and push forward with the Four Major Rivers Project, due to discord between the pro-Lee and pro-Park factions, or due to the proposal for a summit between the President and party leaders by Representative Chung Mong-joon, which surprised the Blue House.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party saw its support rise by 6.7%p and 6.2%p in the Chungcheong and Honam regions, respectively, compared to November. However, even in the Chungcheong region, where opposition to the revision of the Sejong City plan is strong, its support rate is 18.9%, lagging behind the GNP's 25.4%. In Honam, it received high support of 50.7%, but the GNP also saw its support rise by 7.4%p from the previous month to 11.4%, offsetting the Democratic Party's increase in support.

In particular, the Democratic Party is showing limitations in attracting supporters of critical forces who view President Lee Myung-bak's state administration negatively, as well as progressive and moderate voters. It only garnered 28.7% support from respondents who evaluated President Lee Myung-bak's state administration negatively. Among progressives, only 24.6% supported the Democratic Party, and among moderates, only 21.0% did. If this situation continues, and if the awareness of the Democratic Labor Party, the Progressive New Party, and especially the pro-Roh new party increases in the context of the upcoming local elections, its status as the party representing the opposition bloc in electoral and policy alliances could be significantly weakened.

[Table 2] Changes in Party Support by Social Class (November-December) (%)

Pro-Roh New Party (Tentative Name) People's Participation Party Garners Only 1.8% Support, Low Public Recognition and Party Support Base

Unaffiliated Voters at 30.4%, Limited Capacity to Absorb Defectors from Existing Parties

The pro-Roh new party (tentative name), the People's Participation Party, which is drawing attention due to former Minister Yoo Si-min's announcement of his intention to run for mayor of Seoul and the prosecution's investigation into former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, who is classified as belonging to the pro-Roh camp, has not yet garnered significant political interest and support from the public. In this poll, it received only 1.8% support. While efforts are underway for party preparation and member recruitment, and social interest in the new party is growing as the investigation into former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook and preparations for the local elections by political circles intensify, this result indicates that its awareness among the general public is still insufficient. It remains to be seen how much support it can absorb from the opposition bloc's supporters once the party formation process gains momentum and the opposition bloc's cooperation in the investigation of former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook becomes visible.

Meanwhile, the proportion of unaffiliated voters, which was 24.0% last month, increased to 30.4% in this poll. This clearly shows the limitations of major parties in attracting voters who have left other parties.

[Issue] Investigation of Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook

Investigation of Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook: "Political Intentions Involved" 48.7% vs. "Legitimate Investigation" 36.9%

As the prosecution recently launched an investigation into allegations that former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook received money in exchange for favors during her tenure as Prime Minister, Han Myeong-sook herself and the opposition bloc have strongly protested, arguing that the prosecution's investigation is politically motivated to tarnish the reputation of a likely candidate for the next mayor of Seoul. These opposition moves are progressing beyond a response to the prosecution's investigation to discussions on seeking an electoral alliance for the 2010 local elections. However, the prosecution is swiftly proceeding with the arrest warrant and apprehension process based on its confidence in proving Han's alleged offenses, regardless of political motives.

When the public was asked about the prosecution's response, 48.7% of respondents answered that the investigation was politically motivated, while 36.9% maintained it was a legitimate investigation under the law. It is also noteworthy that 14.5% of respondents were undecided or did not provide an answer. Although the specific details are not yet known as former Prime Minister Han is exercising her right to remain silent, the direction in which public opinion will converge, including undecided respondents, will be a significant variable in the unfolding of the case regarding Han Myeong-sook's alleged financial transactions and the political landscape leading up to the local elections.

[Figure 1] Stance on the Prosecution's Investigation into Former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook's Alleged Receipt of Funds (%)