[Public Opinion Briefing 60-1] Analysis of Presidential Approval Ratings: Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating Recovers to Pre-Candlelight Protest Levels at 44.5%

[Public Opinion Briefing 60] Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey

1. President Lee's Approval Rating Rises 7.2%p to 44.5%

2. Party Support: Grand National Party 31.9% (↑3.5%p), Democratic Party 20.7% (↓1.3%p), Gap Between Parties Widens to 11.2%p

Support Rises Among 'Mountain Rabbits' (Centrist, Non-GNP Supporters) Following 'Home Rabbits' (Defected Lee Myung-bak Supporters)

Seven Out of Ten Voters Who Supported Lee Myung-bak in the 2007 Presidential Election (69.4%) Support Him Now

President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating for state affairs has been steadily increasing since the July survey. This signifies a recovery in approval ratings to the 45.0% level recorded just before the candlelight protests in April of last year. Approximately seven out of ten voters (69.4%) who supported President Lee Myung-bak in the 2007 presidential election currently express their support, suggesting the return of the support base that had defected since the administration's inauguration. Unlike the fluctuations in approval ratings experienced from May to July, which were influenced by the endorsement of the centrist pragmatist line, followed by the death of President Roh Moo-hyun and the withdrawal of Chung Sang-gon's nomination for Prosecutor General, the consecutive increase in approval ratings in August and September is noteworthy. The approval rating, which had fallen to 30.5% due to the withdrawal of Chung Sang-gon's nomination and the media legislation controversy, rose by 6.8%p to 37.3% in the August survey, and reached 44.5% in the September survey, a 7.2%p increase from the previous month. Negative evaluations stood at 52.4%. These findings are from the regular public opinion barometer survey conducted on September 26 by the East Asia Institute (EAI, President: Lee Sook-jong) in collaboration with Korea Research.

[Figure 1] Changes in President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating for State Affairs (%)

Support Mobilization of 'Home Rabbits' in July-August, Prominent Increase in Support from 'Mountain Rabbits' in August-September

- August Survey: Support Ratings Led by Those Aged 50+, Residents of Incheon/Gyeonggi, Junior High/High School Graduates, and GNP Supporters

- September Survey: Support Ratings Led by Those Aged 20-40, Highly Educated Individuals, TK, Honam, Chungcheong Regions, and Democratic Party Supporters/Unaffiliated Voters

Looking at approval ratings by age group, those aged 50 and above recorded the highest approval ratings at 61.4% in August and 64.0% in September. The 40s age group showed a significant increase of 9.4%p from August, reaching 41.1%. The under-20s group had 33.7%, and the 30s group had 27.6%, the lowest, but both saw an increase of 9.8%p compared to August. In the August 22 survey, the 50+ age group led the increase in approval ratings, rising by 13.6%p compared to July. However, in the current survey, the increase in approval ratings among the younger demographics of the 20s and 30s, who have strong anti-Lee Myung-bak sentiments, and the 40s, who withdrew their support after the last presidential election, is particularly notable.

A similar pattern emerges when examining approval ratings by education level. In the August survey, the low-education group (junior high/high school graduates), traditionally a supporter base for the Grand National Party, recorded 61.9%, an increase of 22.4%p from the July survey, and maintained a high approval rating of 62.5% in the September survey. Among high school graduates, 49.7% responded that they supported the president, an increase of 8.1%p from August. The approval rating among those with college degrees or higher, where critical public opinion towards the government has been strong, also increased by 8.4%p to 36.1%.

By region of residence, in the August survey, the approval rating in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region was 50.0% and in the Incheon/Gyeonggi region was 42.5%, while other regions failed to reach 40% support. However, in the September survey, the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region recorded the highest approval rating, increasing by 15.0%p to 65.0%. Seoul reached 46.0%, Incheon/Gyeonggi 46.5%, Daejeon/Chungcheong 40.0%, and Busan/Gyeongnam/Ulsan 40.2%, with all regions except Honam exceeding 40% support. The Honam region recorded a 25.9% approval rating, but this also represented an increase of 13.4%p from the previous month.

However, excluding the Gyeonggi/Incheon region, which saw an increase in approval ratings last month, most regions experienced an increase of approximately 8-15%p in approval ratings compared to the previous month. Notably, the PK region, along with the Daejeon/Chungcheong region, not only had relatively lower approval ratings but also saw a modest increase of only 0.7%p compared to the previous month. Despite visible reconciliation efforts, such as President Lee's meeting with Representative Park Geun-hye and consideration for pro-Park factions in the September 3 cabinet reshuffle, these measures appear to have been insufficient to fully address the dissatisfaction in the PK region.

By party support, between July and August, the President's approval rating among Grand National Party supporters increased by 9.6%p to 79.0%, and in the September survey, it reached 80.3%, demonstrating the cohesion of the support base. However, among unaffiliated voters, the approval rating increased by 6.2%p to 35.0% in the current survey, compared to 28.8% in the August survey. Even among Democratic Party supporters, 18.7% responded favorably to President Lee Myung-bak's state administration, an increase of 7.5%p from the previous month.

In summary, the increase in the President's approval rating in August can be attributed primarily to the mobilization of 'home rabbits,' namely older, less educated, and traditional Grand National Party supporters. In the September survey, while the President's approval ratings continued to soar among these groups, a notable increase was observed among the Seoul, 40s, college-educated, and unaffiliated demographics who had previously withdrawn their support for President Lee Myung-bak. This trend of expanding support further indicates a significant mitigation of negative public opinion towards President Lee Myung-bak, even among the 20s-30s, the Honam/Chungcheong regions, and Democratic Party supporters, who have historically led critical public opinion.

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings by Socioeconomic Class Compared to the Previous Month (%): 'Mountain Rabbit' Support Rises Following 'Home Rabbit' Support

Note: The margin of error for 800 respondents is ±3.5%. The overall presidential approval rating for September among 800 respondents increased by 7.2%p compared to the previous month, which is statistically significant as it exceeds the margin of error. However, for subgroups, the margin of error increases significantly (for a sample of 200, it is ±7.0%), making it difficult to consider the difference in approval ratings compared to the previous month as statistically significant. Therefore, the interpretations here should not be taken as absolute. Gangwon/Jeju are combined with 33 respondents and excluded from interpretation.

[Figure 2] Trend of Approval Ratings Since Lee Myung-bak's Inauguration (%)