[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 53-2] Changes in Party Support Rates

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 53] President and Grand National Party Support Rates Decline; Opposition to the Centrist Pragmatism Policy is High

1. President Lee's Approval Rating Stalls; Effects of Centrist Pragmatism and "People-First" Initiatives Offset

2. Changes in Party Support Rates: Grand National Party's Upward Trend Halts, Democratic Party Also Declines

Grand National Party 26.9%, Democratic Party 21.8%, Down 2.1%p Each Compared to June; Unaffiliated 30.7%

Party Support Rates Re-Invert, Then Both Decline

(GNP) 29.0→26.9 (2.1%p↓), (DP) 23.9→21.8 (2.1%p↓)

Regional Divide Persists: GNP Strong in Yeongnam, DP Strong in Honam; GNP Leads in Seoul, DP Leads in Chungcheong

Ultimately, both the Grand National Party and the Democratic Party, which clashed fiercely during the passage of the irregular worker bill and the media bill, claimed public support, but the public viewed the political sphere with indifference.

In terms of party support rates, both the ruling Grand National Party and the main opposition Democratic Party show a slight downward trend. The gap in support rates, which had more than doubled following the death of President Roh Moo-hyun on May 23rd, had narrowed significantly. However, in the June survey, the Grand National Party's support rate recovered to 29.0%, while the Democratic Party's support rate stagnated, causing the gap to widen again.

However, in this survey conducted immediately after the passage of the media bill, the Grand National Party's support rate was 26.9%, and the Democratic Party's was also 21.8%. The Grand National Party's rapidly rising support curve has broken, and the Democratic Party is also unable to break free from its stagnant support rate in the low 20% range since the period of mourning. The Democratic Labor Party followed with 6.6%, then Pro-Park United Party at 4.2%, Liberty Forward Party at 3.0%, Creative Korea Party at 2.1%, and the New Progressive Party at 2.0%. Others accounted for 2.7%, and the unaffiliated segment was 30.7%.

[Figure 3] Party Support Rate in July (%)

* Starting with the July survey, the Pro-Park United Party was included as a separate option. Prior to the June survey, the Pro-Park United Party's support rate was included under 'Other Parties (Etc.)'.

[Figure 4] Grand National Party - Democratic Party Support Rate Trends (February-July 2009)] (%)

* The June 5 survey was not a regular survey but the result of an emergency political issue survey jointly conducted by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (600 respondents).

Yeongnam-Honam Regional Divide Persists; Grand National Party Leads in Seoul, Democratic Party Leads in Chungcheong

Examining party support bases by region, the Grand National Party shows a significant lead over the Democratic Party with 49.4% in TK and 32.3% in PK, its traditional strongholds. The Democratic Party received high support in Honam with 50.6%. This indicates that the regional divide remains.

Meanwhile, the subtle difference in perception within the Seoul Metropolitan Area is noteworthy. In Seoul, the Grand National Party leads with 34.3% compared to the Democratic Party's 19.1%. However, in the Incheon/Gyeonggi region, the race is very tight with the Grand National Party at 24.4% and the Democratic Party at 22.2%. For the Democratic Party, which is attempting to intensify its offensive against the Grand National Party through measures such as the resignation of lawmakers and street protests following the passage of the media legislation, the inability to narrow the support gap in Seoul, a bellwether for national public opinion, represents a significant burden.

Overall, the Grand National Party appears to be leading in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, but its support is notably weak in the Chungcheong region. The Grand National Party's support rate in the Daejeon/Chungcheong region has been on a continuous decline, falling to 9.5% in this survey. In contrast, the Democratic Party recorded the highest support in the Chungcheong region with 23.0%. However, the proportion of undecided voters in the Chungcheong region is the highest at 41.7%, suggesting a large segment of the population remains observant. This factor contributes to the growing interest within certain factions of the Grand National Party in forming an alliance with the Liberty Forward Party.



While the analysis is limited due to the small sample size in Gangwon and Jeju, this survey, like the June survey, indicates a close contest between the Grand National Party (21.2%) and the Democratic Party (23.1%).

[Table 2] Party Support by Region (%)

[Table 3] Party Support Rate Trends (February-July 2009) (%)

* The June 5 survey was not a regular survey but the result of an emergency political issue survey jointly conducted by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper (600 respondents).

** Includes 'No party support' and 'Don't know/No response'.

*** Change in support rate from June to July (%p). Considering the margin of error is 3.5%p at a 95% confidence level, the month-on-month change in support rates for each party is not statistically significant.