[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 53-1] President Lee's approval rating growth halted...

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 53] President and Grand National Party approval ratings decline; significant opposition to the moderate pragmatism policy

1. President Lee's approval rating growth halted; moderate pragmatism and pro-poor policies offset by other factors

2. Changes in party support: Grand National Party's growth momentum wanes, Democratic Party also declining

Decline is relatively larger within the Grand National Party's support base

Criticism of the moderate pragmatism policy is growing

President Lee's approval rating growth halted after one month, down 4.3%p compared to June

38.5% (Feb) → 34.7% (Mar) → 34.0% (Apr) → 32.4% (May) → 28.5% (Jun 5) → 34.8% (Jun 20) → 30.5% (Jul 21)

President's approval rating at 30.5%; upward trend following moderate pragmatism and pro-poor initiatives falters

Positive evaluation of moderate pragmatism: 39.8%, Negative evaluation: 50.1%

President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating, which had fallen to 28.5% immediately after the passing of former President Roh Moo-hyun on June 5, had recovered to 34.8% in the last month's regular public opinion barometer survey conducted by EAI and Korea Research on June 20. This recovery was attributed to heightened security concerns following North Korea's second nuclear test and the return of traditional conservatives and some swing voters after the South Korea-U.S. summit. Subsequently, based on the moderate pragmatism and pro-poor policies, there were reports of the Grand National Party itself recovering to a 40% approval rating. However, President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating could not sustain this upward trend and has entered a downward phase again. In the survey conducted on July 25, the President's approval rating stood at only 30.5%. This is a decrease of 4.3%p compared to June. While the decline is not substantial in magnitude, it is a disappointing outcome for the Blue House and the Grand National Party, who had expected further approval gains following the resignation of Prosecutor General nominee Chun Sung-kwan on July 15 and the passage of the Media Law on July 22.

[Figure 1] Changes in President's Approval Rating (%)

* The survey on June 5 was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) jointly conducted by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.



When asked about their evaluation of the moderate pragmatism policy, which President Lee Myung-bak emphasizes, 39.8% responded positively, while 50.1% expressed negative opinions, indicating a predominantly critical assessment. The projection that President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating entered an upward trend in July as he emphasized moderate pragmatism and pro-poor policies suggests that the moderate pragmatism line has served as a momentum for the Lee Myung-bak administration to drive a political turnaround. The fact that critical public opinion towards moderate pragmatism is in the majority implies that the Blue House's momentum in leading state affairs may weaken.

[Figure 2] Evaluation of Moderate Pragmatism (%)

Approval ratings declined across all demographic groups; significant drop in 수도권 (metropolitan area) and 충청권 (Chungcheong region)

Decline is actually larger among Grand National Party supporters (middle school education, older age, GNP supporters)

Compared to the survey results on June 20, approval ratings for President Lee Myung-bak have stagnated or declined in almost all groups except for the 영남 (Yeongnam) region. The decline in approval ratings was relatively larger in segments and groups that form the support base of the Grand National Party. The stagnation or decline in approval ratings across all demographic groups indicates that accumulated points from moderate pragmatism and pro-poor policies are being offset by political and social adversities, including the resignation of Prosecutor General nominee Chun Sung-kwan, the Non-regular Worker Act, the Ssangyong Motor incident, and the forceful passage of the Media Law. Conversely, the fact that support is eroding among Grand National Party supporters suggests that the recently emphasized moderate pragmatism policy may be acting as a factor for alienation among traditional conservatives. This indicates that the subsequent actions of the Lee Myung-bak administration will not be easy.



[Table 1] Changes in Approval Ratings by Social Stratum (%)

Looking at regional breakdowns, the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region showed nearly a majority at 47.8%, and the Busan-Gyeongnam region was at 37.3%. The Incheon/Gyeonggi region at 33.2% and the Seoul region at 32.5% were slightly above the national average, but the decline in approval ratings compared to the previous month was -4.1%p for Incheon/Gyeonggi and -6.9%p for Seoul, exceeding the average decline rate. Excluding Gangwon/Jeju at 13.9%, the withdrawal of support was largest in the Chungcheong region. In the Chungcheong region, it fell by 10.9%p compared to the June survey, remaining at 20.0%. Gangwon and Jeju were at 13.9%, and the Honam region was at 8.2%.

By age group, there were no significant changes in the 20s (19.4% → 18.1%) and 30s (19.1% → 18.0%). In the 40s, it was 27.5%, a decrease of 4.9%p compared to 32.4% recorded in the June survey. The 50s and older, who form a large part of the Grand National Party's support base, showed the highest approval rating for the President at 47.8%. This is a decrease of 7.6%p from the previous month's approval rating of 55.4%, representing the largest decline among all age groups.



By education level, those with a college degree or higher had the lowest approval rating at 22.8% compared to other education levels. Those with a high school diploma showed 33.5%, and those with a middle school education showed 39.5%. The lower the education level, the more favorable the attitude towards the Lee Myung-bak administration was confirmed. The decline was also largest among the middle school educated or lower, who serve as the support base for the President and the Grand National Party. This is a decrease of 6.9%p compared to 46.4% in the June survey.

In terms of party support, the decline in President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating was also largest among Grand National Party supporters. In the June survey, the President's approval rating among Grand National Party supporters was 75.0%, but it decreased to 69.4% in this survey. In the July survey, the approval rating for the President among Democratic Party supporters was only 4.8%, and among unaffiliated voters with no party preference, it was 26.5%, below the overall average.