[Public Opinion Briefing 15-5] The Grand National Party Primaries, What Now?

[Public Opinion Briefing 15] Grand National Party Primaries and Voter Support Shifts

[1] Analysis of Voter Support Shifts and Support Base Changes for Presidential Candidates - Jeong Han-wool

[2] Tracking Unseen Public Opinion Changes Through Panel Surveys 1 - Kim Sung-tae

[3] Tracking Unseen Public Opinion Changes Through Panel Surveys 2 - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Once Progressive, Always Progressive? Once Conservative, Always Conservative? - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The Grand National Party Primaries, What Now? - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[6] The Pro-Government Camp: Should They Unify? If So, How? - Seo Hyun-jin

[7] Evaluation of the Grand National Party's Candidate Vetting Activities - Lim Seong-hak

5. The Grand National Party Primaries, What Now?

Kwon Hyuk-yong (Korea University)

The Grand National Party primaries are three days away. What patterns of support shift will emerge among the supporters of the two candidates, Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, depending on the outcome of these primaries? Based on the survey results for the question, "If the candidate you support does not run for president, which candidate will you choose?" included in the second survey (August 10-13), we can draw the following two scenarios.

Scenario 1 (Lee Myung-bak Wins Primary): If candidate Lee Myung-bak wins the primary and becomes the Grand National Party's presidential candidate, 51.1% of candidate Park Geun-hye's supporters indicated they would support candidate Lee Myung-bak. 17.1% of Park's supporters stated they had no candidate to choose if she lost, and approximately 28% indicated they would choose one of the pro-government camp candidates. 8.5% of Park Geun-hye's supporters responded they would choose candidate Son Hak-kyu.

Scenario 2 (Park Geun-hye Wins Primary): If candidate Park Geun-hye is decided as the Grand National Party's presidential candidate, less than half of candidate Lee Myung-bak's supporters, 41.1%, responded they would choose candidate Park Geun-hye. Among Lee Myung-bak's supporters, 19% responded they had no candidate to choose, and approximately 36% of supporters said they would choose a pro-government camp candidate. It is also noteworthy that 15.5% of Lee Myung-bak's supporters chose candidate Son Hak-kyu.

Compared to the first survey conducted in late April, the proportion of supporters indicating they would support the opposing candidate in the presidential election if that candidate won the primary decreased by 5.5% among Lee Myung-bak's supporters and 7.1% among Park Geun-hye's supporters. In other words, rather than supporting the primary winner, the proportion of respondents choosing pro-government camp candidates or remaining undecided increased compared to the first survey. This defection effect, which appears to have formed during the Grand National Party's primary process, may offset the convention effect that the primaries could bring.

(However, among the prominent pro-government camp candidates, 31.3% of Son Hak-kyu's supporters indicated they would shift their support to candidate Lee Myung-bak if Son was not selected as the presidential candidate, and only 13.5% stated they would support candidate Jeong Dong-young. On the other hand, among Jeong Dong-young's supporters, 18.1% shifted their support to candidate Lee Hae-chan, followed by 14.1% supporting Lee Myung-bak, 13.5% supporting Park Geun-hye, and 13.3% supporting Son Hak-kyu. For the pro-government camp as well, although there are differences depending on who wins, it is predictable that the primary results may act as a centrifugal force rather than a centripetal force in consolidating the pro-government camp's support base.)

[Table 1] Predicted Support Shifts by Primary Outcome Scenario

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* Not included: Don't know/No answer