[Public Opinion Briefing 17-3] The Power of a United Pro-Government Candidate

[Public Opinion Briefing 17] "Will the 17th Presidential Election Again Come Down to a 2% Difference?"

Topic 1. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's High Approval Ratings and the Explosive Potential of the BBK Variable - Kang Won-taek

Topic 2. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's Issue Strategy - Park Chan-wook

Topic 3. Can a United Pro-Government Candidate Change the Presidential Election Landscape? - Lee Nae-young & Jung Han-wool

Topic 4. Candidate Moon Kook-hyun's Dilemma - Kim Sung-tae

Topic 5. The Impact of President Roh's Governance on the Presidential Election - Seo Hyun-jin

Topic 3. Can a United Pro-Government Candidate Change the Presidential Election Landscape?

Lee Nae-young (Director, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center; Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University) & Jung Han-wool (Deputy Director, EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center)

Unlike previous presidential elections since democratization, which were fiercely contested with winners decided by a narrow margin of tens of thousands of votes, will this election be an anomaly, ending anticlimactically with candidate Lee Myung-bak's solo run continuing until the final stages? With the combined support for pro-government candidates falling far short of that for candidate Lee Myung-bak, there is no disagreement that the most crucial strategy for the ruling camp to halt Lee Myung-bak's dominance is the unification of pro-government candidates. However, negative projections suggest that reaching a unification agreement among pro-government candidates will not be easy, and even if unification is achieved, catching up to candidate Lee Myung-bak will be difficult. This panel survey was conducted to examine the possibilities and limitations of unifying pro-government candidates, which could be the ruling camp's final gamble.

The results of this survey indicate that the conditions for a unified pro-government candidate are maturing with the emergence of the Grand National Democratic Party, the Democratic Party, and Moon Kook-hyun's new party. Firstly, the approval ratings of pro-government candidates have risen; in this survey, the combined support for candidates Chung Dong-young (15.3%), Moon Kook-hyun (7.2%), and Lee In-je (2.3%) reached 24.8%. This is encouraging compared to the April survey, where the combined support for ten pro-government candidates barely exceeded 10%. Notably, the sharp rise in candidate Chung Dong-young's approval ratings since the Grand National Democratic Party's primary is a rare hopeful sign for the ruling camp. Candidate Moon Kook-hyun, while slightly faltering from his initial momentum, has also increased his support to the 7% range.

In addition to the rise in approval ratings for pro-government candidates, the public's support for the idea of unifying pro-government candidates is also increasing, further enhancing the possibility of candidate unification. While the proportion of respondents agreeing with the Grand National Party's call for a change of government remained almost unchanged from 58.6% to 59.2% in the second and third surveys, those expressing agreement with the unification and consolidation of the pro-government camp increased from 40.1% to 50.2%.

Although the rise in candidate Chung Dong-young's approval ratings and the increasing possibility of unifying pro-government candidates suggest that the ruling camp has an opportunity to change the presidential election landscape, a closer look reveals that the situation is not entirely optimistic.

First, candidate Chung Dong-young is showing limitations in absorbing even the support bases of candidates Sohn Hak-kyu and Lee Hae-chan, who ran in the Grand National Democratic Party's primary. Among the 168 individuals who supported candidate Sohn in the second panel survey, only 29.2% shifted their support to candidate Chung Dong-young, and among the 35 individuals who supported candidate Lee Hae-chan, only 34.3% did so. This indicates that two out of every three supporters of candidates Sohn and Lee are either supporting other candidates or have not yet decided.

Second, while 68.6% of candidate Chung Dong-young's supporters, 69.0% of candidate Moon Kook-hyun's supporters, and 63.4% of candidate Lee In-je's supporters agree with candidate unification, only 43.5% of candidate Lee Myung-bak's supporters and 43.0% of undecided voters agree with the unification of pro-government candidates. This result suggests that even if unification of pro-government candidates occurs, it will not significantly expand the support base for the pro-government camp. For the pro-government camp, it is necessary to pursue both candidate unification and the expansion of the pro-government support base simultaneously to counter candidate Lee Myung-bak. This is why the pro-government camp, which is regaining momentum after the primary, cannot afford to be overly optimistic.

[Figure 1] Changes in Combined Approval Ratings of Pro-Government Candidates (Surveys 1, 2, 3)

Note: Democratic Labor Party candidates are excluded from the pro-government camp. Candidate Sohn Hak-kyu, who had defected at the time of the first survey, was officially excluded from the pro-government classification.

1st Round Pro-Government Candidates: Kang Geum-sil, Kim Geun-tae, Kim Doo-kwan, Kim Hyuk-kyu, Moon Kook-hyun, Chung Dong-young, Chung Un-chan, Chun Jung-haeng, Yoo Si-min, Han Myeong-sook (10 candidates)

2nd Round Pro-Government Candidates: Sohn Hak-kyu, Yoo Si-min, Lee Hae-chan, Chung Dong-young, Cho Soon-hyung, Han Myeong-sook (6 candidates)

3rd Round Pro-Government Candidates: Chung Dong-young (15.3%), Moon Kook-hyun (7.2%), Lee In-je (2.3%)

[Figure 2] Changes in Preferred Presidential Candidate (Survey 2 → Survey 3: Numbers represent frequency, percentages in parentheses)

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[Figure 3] Percentage (%) of supporters of major candidates and undecided voters who agree with "Unification of pro-government candidates to block the Grand National Party from taking power": Strongly agree + Generally agree