[Public Opinion Briefing 20-3] Will the BBK Effect Continue?

[Public Opinion Briefing No. 20] "17th Presidential Election Results and Predictions for Future Political Changes"

[1] Based on the current political landscape, the Grand National Party is close to securing two-thirds of the seats in the general election - Lee Hyun-woo

[2] Is Korean Society Becoming More Conservative? - Seo Hyun-jin

[3] The Influence of BBK After the Presidential Election - Lim Sung-hak

[4] President-elect Lee Myung-bak's Honeymoon Effect - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The 17th Presidential Election and Media Effects - Kim Sung-tae

Will the BBK Effect Continue?

Analysis of the Impact of BBK in the Early Period of the Administration

Lim Sung-hak (University of Seoul)

In preparation for the general election four months after the presidential election, both ruling and opposition parties are expected to clash centering on the BBK incident. While the political repercussions will vary depending on the results of the special prosecutor's investigation into the BBK case, both parties are in a position where they must make strategic choices.

The Grand National Party urged the Blue House to reject the special prosecutor investigation into Lee Myung-bak, but a majority of the public remains skeptical of the prosecution's investigation results. The president-elect declared his acceptance of the special prosecutor before the election and stated he would resign if his involvement with BBK was proven. Therefore, if the special prosecutor is rejected without proper justification, the party will face strong attacks from the opposition, putting it in a defensive position and making it difficult to expect an easy victory in the general election. On the other hand, the current ruling party, including the United New Party, has a strong attack vector against the Grand National Party and President-elect Lee Myung-bak with the BBK case, but they must also bear the risk that similar results from the special prosecutor's investigation as the prosecution's could lead to a devastating election defeat.

The strategies of each party will be heavily influenced by public opinion. The following shows the changes in public opinion regarding the BBK issue during the presidential election process.

On December 5th, the prosecution announced its findings on the BBK case. A panel survey conducted on December 11-12 revealed that only 34.1% of respondents "trust" the prosecution's announcement, while 62.3% "do not trust" it, indicating that most voters were significantly dissatisfied with the prosecution's investigative report. However, regarding the United New Party's impeachment motion against the Prosecutor General on the grounds of insufficient investigation into BBK, 44.1% responded "agree" and 50.1% "disagree." These results suggest that although the public did not trust the prosecution's investigative report, there was a slight majority opinion that it was not desirable for the issue to be used for political maneuvering.

A survey conducted on December 20-21, after the presidential election, shows a somewhat softened public attitude towards the BBK case. Regarding the impact of the BBK video on candidate Lee Myung-bak, 57.9% responded that it had little effect. Although the fifth survey showed that many did not trust the prosecution's investigation, opinions were divided on the introduction of a special prosecutor for BBK, with 52.4% agreeing and 47.0% disagreeing.

It can be predicted that the public's future attitude towards the BBK case will be one of not trusting the prosecution's investigation but preferring to wait for the special prosecutor's findings rather than seeing the case used for political purposes. Therefore, for parties preparing for the general election, the best strategy would be to prepare new issues and policies rather than focusing on BBK.

[Table 1] Public Opinion Changes Regarding the BBK Prosecution Announcement and Post-Presidential Election

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