[Public Opinion Brief 27-3] Analysis of Koreans' Perception of Energy Threats

[Public Opinion Brief No. 27] "Threat of Depleting Oil Energy: Perceptions and Alternatives"

[Topic 1] Is the Third Oil Shock Coming?: Global Pessimism Regarding Oil Price Outlook for the Next Decade

[Topic 2] International Public Opinion and the Political Economy of High Oil Prices

[Topic 3] Analysis of Koreans' Perception of Energy Threats

Topic 3. Analysis of Koreans' Perception of Energy Threats

• Koreans, sensitive to oil prices globally, show pronounced crisis awareness among the middle class and younger generations.

• The government's policies related to oil energy are evaluated as being pursued in the right direction.

As examined earlier, South Korea is one of the countries with the highest concern globally about the depletion of oil energy (97%) and a very high perception that oil prices will inevitably rise in the long term (87%, 55% expecting a significant increase + 31% expecting a slight increase). This indicates a strong consensus among the public on this issue. Given South Korea's lack of natural resources and its trade structure reliant on processing and selling overseas raw materials, securing stable energy sources is a critical issue that affects the nation's economic survival.

However, it is noteworthy that crisis awareness is relatively more pronounced among the middle class and younger generations. Firstly, when asked about the oil price outlook for the next 10 years, the proportion answering "will rise significantly" was 55% on average among all respondents, but the middle class with a monthly income of 2-3.99 million KRW showed 57%, and the upper-middle class with 4-4.99 million KRW projected a significant increase in oil prices. This suggests that a considerable portion of the middle class, who often own private vehicles and have substantial heating oil demands, are more pessimistic about oil prices despite having limited capacity to cope with price increases.

By generation, younger individuals in their 20s and 30s showed a stronger tendency to believe that the era of high international oil prices will persist for a considerable period. While the proportion of respondents expecting international oil prices to rise significantly was 55% for those in their 40s, 52% for those in their 50s, and 43% for those aged 60 and above, this figure was 60% for those in their 20s and 63% for those in their 30s, showing a slight disparity. These generations largely belong to the middle-income bracket and are more exposed to global trends in the era of globalization, indicating their awareness of concerns regarding international oil price trends that continue to rise.

Koreans, while perceiving a high likelihood of rising international oil prices in the context of the high oil price era, also believe that the government's oil energy strategy is being pursued in the right direction, with 79% expressing this view. However, differences in the intensity of perception can be observed across generations and income levels. When asked whether the government is focusing on developing alternative energy sources in preparation for the depletion of oil resources or pursuing energy policies under the assumption that oil resources are sufficient, the perception that the government is implementing policies to prepare for the depletion of oil resources was highest among the middle and upper-middle classes at 82%, exceeding the lower-income class (74%) and lower-middle income class (74%). Even among the upper-middle income bracket (4 million KRW range), 79% positively evaluated the government's policies. This suggests that the middle class, concerned about high oil prices, has relatively high expectations for the government's oil energy supply and demand policies.

However, a different response pattern is observed across generations. While over 80% of those aged 40 and above evaluated the government's policy direction as focusing on the development of alternative energy sources in preparation for oil depletion, this proportion dropped significantly to 65% among those in their 20s. Notably, among the younger generations in their 20s and 30s who anticipated a significant rise in oil prices in the long term, 85% of those in their 30s believed the government was pursuing policies in the right direction, contrasting with the critical public opinion among those in their 20s.

The importance of resource diplomacy has been a key policy area that no previous administration could afford to neglect, and its significance is becoming even more pronounced amidst the current volatile international oil prices. While generational and income-based differences in perception regarding energy issues were confirmed through public opinion, an overall sense of crisis and high expectations for the government concerning energy supply, demand, and oil price stability were also evident at the national level. It is now time for the new administration to respond with policies and results. Although various pending issues exist in the President's diplomatic schedule, such as the North Korean nuclear issue and the ROK-US alliance, the public anticipates the outcomes of resource diplomacy.

[Figure 5] Proportion of Respondents Expecting "Significant Increase" in Oil Prices Over the Next 10 Years by Income Bracket (%)

[Figure 6] Proportion of Respondents Expecting "Significant Increase" in Oil Prices Over the Next 10 Years by Generation (%)

[Figure 7] Evaluation of Government's Oil Energy Policy ("Preparing for Depletion") by Income Bracket (%)





[Figure 8] Evaluation of Government's Oil Energy Policy ("Preparing for Depletion") by Generation (%)

Earth Day

Established to commemorate the first large-scale environmental protection campaign and demonstration involving 20 million environmentalists in the United States on April 22, 1970. Every year on this day, environmentalists across the United States engage in various events nationwide to raise awareness about the protection and management of nature, environmental pollution, and ecosystem destruction. This movement is understood as an appeal to all humanity, transcending regional or national boundaries. In 1990, US environmental organizations proposed Earth Day events in over 150 countries worldwide. In Korea, eight organizations, including the YMCA, YWCA, Anti-Pollution Movement Federation, Catholic Justice and Peace Committee, and Hansalim, jointly promoted Earth Day, organizing events to enhance public awareness of environmental issues. (Referenced from Naver Encyclopedia)