[Opinion Briefing No. 20-1] Based on the Current Situation, the Grand National Party is Close to Securing Two-Thirds of the Seats in the General Election

[Opinion Briefing No. 20] "Analysis of the 17th Presidential Election Results and Forecasts for Future Political Trends"

[1] Based on the Current Situation, the Grand National Party is Close to Securing Two-Thirds of the Seats in the General Election - Lee Hyun-woo

[2] Is Korean Society Becoming More Conservative? - Seo Hyun-jin

[3] The Influence of BBK After the Presidential Election - Lim Sung-hak

[4] President-Elect Lee Myung-bak's Honeymoon Effect - Jeong Han-wool

[5] The 17th Presidential Election and Media Effects - Kim Sung-tae

Based on the Current Situation, the Grand National Party is Close to Securing Two-Thirds of the Seats in the General Election

Will President-Elect Lee Myung-bak's Support Carry Over to the General Election?

Lee Hyun-woo (Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Sogang University)

There are conflicting arguments regarding whether the support for President-Elect Lee Myung-bak, who secured 48.7% of the vote in the presidential election and won in all regions except Honam, will continue until the general election in April next year. The first 100 days after a president's inauguration is typically a honeymoon period, during which the public and media show a favorable attitude and high expectations towards the new president. The period between the inauguration on February 25th and the 18th general election on April 9th is less than two months. Therefore, it can be anticipated that the Grand National Party, benefiting from the initial popularity of the new president, will not only emerge as the largest party but also secure a majority of the seats.

However, the argument for caution is also persuasive, emphasizing that party affiliation has a much stronger influence on voting in general elections compared to presidential elections, and that new variables such as the future changes within the United New Party and the establishment of a new party by Lee Hoi-chang must be considered. Furthermore, if we consider the possibility of competitive candidates being excluded during the nomination process and running as independents, predicting the outcome of the general election at this point is impossible.

To analyze the political inclinations of voters regarding the general election with concrete evidence, we will use panel survey data. First, voters who supported President-Elect Lee in the presidential election and also support the Grand National Party can be considered the 'core supporters' of the Grand National Party, and their proportion is 40.7% (793/1948). There are 11.8% (229 respondents) who did not support President-Elect Lee in the presidential election but believe they should support the ruling party in the general election, and 2.5% (49 respondents) who supported candidate Lee Hoi-chang in the presidential election but oppose the establishment of a conservative party, referred to as 'returnees' to the Grand National Party. Respondents belonging to these categories are highly likely to support the Grand National Party candidate in the general election, totaling 55% of all respondents.

Furthermore, we must consider the fact that South Korea's electoral system, which elects only one winner per constituency (first-past-the-post system), is highly advantageous to parties that secure a plurality of votes. As seen in previous general election results, the top two parties gained approximately 10.5% and 4.5% more seats, respectively, than their vote share would suggest. Based on this, the Grand National Party could secure about 65% of the total seats, far exceeding a majority.

Looking at proportional representation based on party support, even including those who are currently undecided about party affiliation, the Grand National Party's support is close to 50%. This suggests they could secure approximately 27 out of the total 53 proportional representation seats. Consequently, the Grand National Party could ultimately hold 185 seats out of the total 299 National Assembly seats, accounting for 62% of the total. This proportion is close to the two-thirds threshold required for constitutional amendment.

Moreover, there are differences in voter turnout by age group; older individuals tend to have higher turnout rates and simultaneously show stronger support for the Grand National Party. Considering that the turnout for the general election is expected to be lower than for the presidential election, the Grand National Party will likely have an advantage in mobilizing its supporters compared to other parties.

These projections are based on post-election opinion polls and calculations made at the current time, and they do not account for several important factors. In general elections, vote concentration is crucial; concentrated support in specific constituencies is more beneficial for securing seats than a uniform distribution of support nationwide. Additionally, the efforts of the pro-government camp, which are expected to undergo rapid changes, and the establishment of a new party by former leader Lee Hoi-chang could become variables influencing the general election outcome. Furthermore, as pointed out earlier, if internal conflicts intensify during the nomination process, the proliferation of candidates could lead to vote fragmentation.

[Figure 1] Presidential Election Voting and General Election Supporter Classification (%)

1. Presidential Election Support and General Election Support

□ In the April general election, Lee Myung-bak supporters overwhelmingly chose to support the ruling party for stable governance, while Roh Moo-hyun supporters chose to support the opposition party to prevent the president's unilateral actions.

□ Lee Hoi-chang supporters showed a relatively even distribution between supporting the ruling and opposition parties. The 'Don't Know' (23%) category was the largest.

□ Despite being an opposition party, a high proportion supported the ruling party due to their close affinity with the Grand National Party.

□ 50% of Lee Hoi-chang's supporters feel the closest affinity with the Grand National Party.

[Figure 2] Presidential Election Support and General Election Party Support

2. Impact of Lee Hoi-chang's Party Establishment

□ Lee Hoi-chang's establishment of a new party poses a burden for the Grand National Party, and Lee Myung-bak supporters showed the highest opposition.

□ 22.6% of Lee Hoi-chang's supporters oppose the party establishment. This is about 2 out of 10 people.

   Therefore, these individuals represent a group with potential willingness to support the Grand National Party again.

□ The high opposition rate among Chung Dong-young supporters (59.5%) should be interpreted not as a strategic political maneuver for the election, but as a political stance against the consolidation of conservatives.

[Figure 3] Opinion on Lee Hoi-chang's Establishment of a Conservative Party (%)