[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 17-1] The Potential Explosiveness of the BBK Incident

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 17] "Will the 17th Presidential Election Again Come Down to a 2% Difference?"

Topic 1. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's High Approval Ratings and the Explosive Potential of the BBK Variable - Kang Won-taek

Topic 2. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's Issue Strategy - Park Chan-wook

Topic 3. Can the Unification of Pro-Government Candidates Change the Presidential Election Landscape? - Lee Na-young, Jeong Han-wool

Topic 4. Candidate Moon Kook-hyun's Dilemma - Kim Sung-tae

Topic 5. The Impact of President Roh's Governance Leadership on the Presidential Election - Seo Hyun-jin

Topic 1. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's High Approval Ratings and the Potential Explosiveness of the BBK Incident

Kang Won-taek (Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Soongsil University)

In panel surveys conducted after the Grand National Party's primary, Candidate Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings continued to soar. The third panel survey showed Lee Myung-bak at 54.2%, Chung Dong-young at 15.3%, Moon Kook-hyun at 7.2%, Kwon Young-gil at 2.3%, and Lee In-je at 2.3%. Candidate Lee Myung-bak's support was high across all age groups, educational backgrounds, and income levels, regardless of socio-economic divisions. Regionally, high support was confirmed in all areas except Honam.

However, the controversy surrounding the BBK stock manipulation allegations has shown explosive potential to significantly influence the presidential election process. When asked, 'What would you do if it is revealed that Candidate Lee Myung-bak was involved in the BBK stock manipulation allegations?', 26.4% of those who stated they support Candidate Lee Myung-bak responded that they would 'withdraw their support,' and 19.9% stated they 'don't know,' indicating a wait-and-see attitude. Only 53.7% stated they would continue to support Candidate Lee even if he were found to be involved in the incident. Given that Candidate Lee Myung-bak's approval rating in this survey was 54.2%, if his involvement in the BBK incident is confirmed, approximately 14-15% would immediately withdraw their support. If some of those who expressed a wait-and-see attitude also withdraw their support, Candidate Lee Myung-bak's approval rating could fall to the 30% range. Therefore, the BBK incident appears to possess the explosive potential to shake up the presidential election landscape currently dominated by Candidate Lee Myung-bak.

Those who expressed an intention to withdraw their support showed significant differences based on the strength of their support for Candidate Lee. Among those who strongly support Candidate Lee, 19% responded that they would withdraw their support if his involvement in the BBK incident was confirmed, while among the weaker support base, 31.6% expressed an intention to withdraw their support. The wait-and-see attitude was also higher among the weaker support base. Those who expressed an intention to withdraw their support were relatively higher among the 19-29 age group, white-collar workers and students by occupation, and in the Gwangju/Jeolla, Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam, and Jeju/Gangwon regions. If Candidate Lee Myung-bak's high approval rating is the result of expanding his appeal beyond the traditional Grand National Party support base, the BBK incident is expected to sever the relatively 'weak links' within Lee's support base.

Meanwhile, the BBK incident could also negatively impact the unification of the Grand National Party's support base. If Candidate Lee Myung-bak's involvement in the BBK incident is confirmed, only 46.8% of those who supported former representative Park Geun-hye before the Grand National Party's primary expressed an intention to continue their support, while 29.4% intended to withdraw their support, and 23.8% held a reserved stance. Although the Grand National Party appears to have minimized the aftermath of the primary and achieved internal support unification amidst the momentum of Lee Myung-bak, the unfolding of the BBK incident could significantly damage internal party unity. The results of this survey suggest that the BBK incident possesses a destructive power that could become a major obstacle for Candidate Lee Myung-bak, who has been progressing smoothly since the primary.

[Figure 1] Withdrawal of Support (%) by Grand National Party Supporters if Candidate Lee Myung-bak is Revealed to be Involved in the BBK Incident

[Table 1] Changes in Attitude Toward Candidate Lee Myung-bak Due to the BBK Incident, by Strength of Support for Candidate Lee Myung-bak

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[Table 2] Changes in Attitude Toward Candidate Lee Myung-bak Due to the BBK Incident, by Grand National Party Primary Support (Panel 2nd Survey)

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