[EAI Opinion Memo] Voter Attrition Patterns and Causes Among the Top 3 Presidential Candidates

EAI Opinion Memo No.6

Author

Seo Hyun-jin, EAI Panel Survey Research Team; Sungshin Women's University

Voter Attrition Patterns Among the Top 3 Presidential Candidates

Two months before the 2012 presidential election, how are voters' sentiments shifting among the three main candidates? Comparing the results of a public opinion poll conducted in August, immediately after the Saenuri Party's nomination primaries, with the October survey, the changes in voter sentiment for candidates Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, and Ahn Cheol-soo are as shown in [Figure 1].

First, among the 533 respondents who stated they would vote for candidate Park Geun-hye, who was confirmed as the Saenuri Party candidate in the August survey, 448 (84.1%) indicated in the October survey that they would still vote for candidate Park. Similarly, in the August survey, while the number of respondents who stated they would vote for candidate Moon Jae-in was relatively small at 186, as the Democratic United Party primaries were ongoing, 160 of them (86%) stated in the October survey that they would support candidate Moon. In contrast, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who had not yet even declared his intention to run, had 410 supporters in the August survey. Of these, 282 (68.8%) expressed their support in the current survey as well. This indicates that while Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in have solid support bases, Ahn Cheol-soo's support base is relatively weaker and more fluid.

[Figure 1] Changes in Voter Transfer Rates Among Supporters of the Three Candidates

* Based on 1,317 participants in the 1st and 2nd rounds of the Presidential Panel Survey

[Table 1] Changes in Voter Transfer Rates Among Supporters of the Three Candidates

Voter Sentiment Shifts Between Candidates Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo

Observing the patterns of voter movement, the most notable phenomenon is the shift in voter sentiment between supporters of candidates Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo. While a significant change is the 9.7% (18 individuals) of Moon's supporters who switched to Ahn, the significantly higher proportion of Ahn's supporters, 18.8% (77 individuals), who switched their allegiance to Moon is a matter that warrants continuous attention going forward.

This is because the current situation, where Ahn's supporter attrition rate is the highest and a substantial portion of these defectors have shifted to supporting Moon, will serve as a crucial variable in determining the outcome of this election, particularly if discussions for a unified opposition candidate emerge. It will also provide insights into the ultimate impact on Park's approval ratings, offering clues to gauge the results of this presidential election.

Reasons for Voter Attrition Among the Top 3 Presidential Candidates

What, then, are the reasons for voters switching their support from one candidate to another? The survey results indicate that the 85 defectors from candidate Park's support base switched their allegiance for various reasons, including party affiliation, governing ability, and campaign staff. None of the respondents cited low electability as a reason. Meanwhile, among the 26 defectors from candidate Moon's support base, reasons related to campaign staff and policy were frequently cited, with no supporters leaving due to ethical concerns. Among the 128 defectors from candidate Ahn's support base, 34% cited governing ability as a reason, a significantly higher proportion, followed by those citing electability, indicating a high rate of switching based on practical considerations. This paradoxically reveals the areas of concern voters have regarding each candidate and highlights what each candidate must prioritize to consolidate their support base. ■

[Figure 2] Reasons for Voter Attrition: Comparison of 1st (August) and 2nd (October) Rounds of the Presidential Panel Survey