[North Korea and the World] The Weapon Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un Fear Most is OOO

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2Ohyn3uYsI

Video Script

North Korea's Satellite Launch Announcement and South Korea's Response Drills

Kim Jong-un went into hiding immediately after his appearance. This indicates that Kim Jong-un considered this to be fatal to himself. If we had not disclosed it, they would not have known. Therefore, from North Korea's perspective, this is absolutely unbearable. Welcome, and thank you sincerely to everyone watching Park Gun's North Korea and the World. I would like to discuss North Korea's short-range ballistic missiles. Firing them simultaneously is not a common occurrence. So, why on earth did North Korea do this? The reason for this is related to satellites. On May 26th, when Prime Minister Li Qiang was visiting for the Korea-China-Japan summit, North Korea notified of its intention to launch a satellite, which is indeed an act that makes China very uncomfortable. In any case, since a satellite launch was announced, South Korea needs to be prepared. Therefore, on May 26th, North Korea announced a satellite launch, and on May 27th, the South Korean Air Force conducted an air force training exercise led by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. This exercise involved South Korea's advanced fighter jets, including the F-35A stealth fighter. Approximately 20 aircraft flew in formation, reaching the vicinity of the no-fly zone. A no-fly zone is established. The no-fly zone is set 10 km south of the Military Demarcation Line. A distance of about 10 km is maintained. This is because these aircraft are very fast, and if they cross into this area, they could easily cross the line and pose a significant threat to the North. Therefore, the no-fly zone is intentionally set at about 10 km. This signifies that reaching that point means they could, in fact, go to North Korea at any time.

This sends a clear warning message to North Korea. The F-35A is important here; it is a stealth aircraft. The most significant characteristic of a stealth aircraft is that it is not detected by North Korean radar. In other words, even if the F-35A flies over Pyongyang, North Korea will not know what it is. It appears as a small dot on the radar, so you can assume they lack the air defense capabilities to counter it. Therefore, if North Korea were to attack South Korea, this F-35 possesses the capability to strike North Korea's satellite launch sites, intercontinental ballistic missiles, or other critical targets, and it is used for such purposes.

Threats Posed by F-35A and F-22 Stealth Fighters

There is a similar weapons system. The United States possesses it, although it is not deployed in South Korea. However, at Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, there is the F-22. It is the most powerful stealth fighter currently in existence. The United States does not sell the F-22 to its allies. This is because simulations have shown that one F-22 can destroy 148 F-16s. It possesses such superior combat capabilities. I have seen it at Kadena Air Base. At Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, there are F-22s. Unlike South Korea, Kadena Air Base, which would be completely secured like our military facilities, has an observation deck where one can see the runway and the F-22 hangars. When I went up to the observation deck, there were several Japanese enthusiasts, military otaku, with large cameras, similar to cannon cameras. I suspect that a significant number of them were not unconnected to North Korea. This is because when the F-22 appears as a warning, Kim Jong-un went into hiding at that moment. This indicates that Kim Jong-un considered this to be fatal to himself.

It is similar. Kim Jong-un would undoubtedly have felt a significant threat from the F-35A. Especially since they announced the satellite launch, and North Korea's pattern of satellite launches is usually within one or two days of the announcement. Therefore, since a satellite launch was announced for May 26th, it is highly probable that they were at the launch site. It is possible that Kim Jong-un took his daughter Ju-ae with him. If it had been successful, they would have had to demonstrate the success at the site. Therefore, the movement of the South Korean Air Force's F-35A at the very moment they were at the satellite launch site clearly sent a warning message to Kim Jong-un. Since we made this public, Kim Jong-un knows about it. If we had not made it public, he would not have known. Therefore, from North Korea's perspective, this is a weapon they absolutely cannot afford to deal with. This posed a significant threat to Kim Jong-un, and that is why, after the launch failure on May 28th, his speech upon visiting the National Defense Science Institute included these points.

KN-25 Short-Range Ballistic Missile and its Military Implications

They mention repeated aerial reconnaissance activities and the deployment of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula, stating that they possess the military power to prevent North Korea's military intervention in case of emergency. They also claim to have the capability to completely collapse the South Korean military in the early stages of an operation. Therefore, North Korea launched 10 ballistic missiles at 6 AM on May 30th. These ballistic missiles are 600mm super-large caliber rocket launchers, referred to as KN-25. This is a multiple rocket launcher capable of firing four rounds simultaneously, a system that can launch four rounds in a very short period. In reality, at 600mm, it is more appropriate to consider each one as a short-range ballistic missile rather than a rocket launcher or multiple rocket launcher. In any case, they possess significant weight. The important point is that North Korea stated from the outset that its goal in developing this was to suppress the air power of South Korea and the United States.

To be precise, according to data from December 31, 2022, they held an event to donate the 600mm KN-25 rocket launchers. It was propagandized that the North Korean people donated them, allowing the Korean People's Army to possess them. At that time, during the February 2022 training, they discussed the effectiveness of the KN-25, stating its range is about 300-400 km. This time, it traveled 3 km. They intend to use it to strike key South Korean airfields and air force facilities. They have allocated four rounds to strike key targets such as air operation bases or air force bases. It is stated that low-yield tactical nuclear weapons can be mounted on those four rounds. They claim this is to fully neutralize the ROK-US air power in case of emergency. The precise expression used is 'to seize air superiority and demonstrate independent military power.' It is stated that the People's Army's thorough deterrence posture and willingness to respond to the US-South Korea combined air power have been fully demonstrated. This was said after the KN-25 test launch. To summarize, air superiority is 100% held by the ROK-US. North Korea does not have proper fighter jets. A significant portion of those fighter jets are obsolete. Our government authorities assessed this during the last training. Because they are so outdated, air superiority is definitively held by the ROK-US. This poses a significant military threat to North Korea.

Therefore, they demonstrated the capability of the KN-25 to counter the F-35A's flight south of the no-fly zone. Will this be effective? Will it have a deterrent effect? No. Because if North Korea truly utilizes the KN-25, especially by firing low-yield nuclear weapons at our airfields, it will immediately escalate into a full-scale war. Naturally, the air force is prepared for this. We have missile defense systems, and we have conducted runway repair drills. Naturally, we have various operational plans and preparations to fully exercise our air power in response to North Korean attacks. Therefore, what North Korea is demonstrating is a kind of self-display, and in a way, it serves to prove the threat perceived by Kim Jong Un, but I do not believe they can realistically deter ROK-US air power. Everyone, likes and subscriptions are of great help. Thank you in advance. Thank you.

Background of North Korea's Missile Provocations and Analysis of Deterrence

Park Won-gon, Director of the North Korea Research Center at EAI (Professor at Ewha Womans University), analyzes that North Korea's exceptionally simultaneous launch of 10 KN-25 short-range ballistic missiles on May 30th was intended to showcase their defensive capabilities against the ROK-US air power. Director Park explains that the South Korean military's deployment of F-35A fighter jets, capable of operating while evading North Korea's air defense network, for training south of the no-fly zone in response to North Korea's announcement of a spy satellite launch, revealed the actual threat perception felt by North Korea through this missile provocation. Furthermore, Director Park asserts that since air superiority over the Korean Peninsula is held by the ROK-US, North Korea cannot realistically deter ROK-US air power with the KN-25.

■ Park Won-gon: Director of the EAI North Korea Research Center. Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

I believe it effectively proves the threats Kim Jong Un perceives, but in reality, North Korea cannot deter the combined air power of South Korea and the United States. Everyone, likes and subscriptions are very helpful. Thank you.

Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies (and Professor at Ewha Womans University), analyzed on May 30 that North Korea's unprecedented simultaneous launch of 10 KN-25 short-range ballistic missiles was intended to showcase their defensive capabilities against the air power of South Korea and the United States. Park explained that the South Korean military's deployment of F-35A fighter jets, capable of evading North Korea's air surveillance network and conducting training south of the no-fly line in response to North Korea's announced satellite launch, revealed North Korea's perceived threat awareness through this missile provocation. Furthermore, Park argued that since air superiority on the Korean Peninsula is held by South Korea and the United States, North Korea cannot realistically deter the combined air power of South Korea and the United States with the KN-25.

■ Park Won-gon: Director of the EAI North Korea Research Center. Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr