North Korea and the World: Why Russia and North Korea Are Obsessed with 'Space'

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIMidxHLJEs

Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies and Professor at Ewha Womans University, explains that North Korea's confidence based on its nuclear capabilities and Russia's desperation for conventional weapons led to the North Korea-Russia summit. He also analyzes that holding the summit at a space base was a strategic choice by North Korea and Russia targeting a 'grey zone' with no clear international norms, and an effort to secure minimal legitimacy and justification for cooperation between North Korea and Russia, which have been labeled 'rogue states'.

■ Park Won-gonDirector, EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor, Department of North Korean Studies, Ewha Womans University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

One of the key points now is that Putin chose the Vostochny Cosmodrome as the venue for the summit. I believe North Korea and Russia made an excellent choice. There are no clear international norms regarding space yet. This means there is room for interpretation. Hello, and thank you to everyone watching this week's 'North Korea and the World.' This week, we inevitably have to discuss the North Korea-Russia summit again. It has garnered significant global attention and holds considerable importance. Therefore, this time, we will examine the meaning and key aspects of the North Korea-Russia summit from a comprehensive perspective.

First, we need to revisit the starting point. To be honest, I was wrong. I thought Kim Jong Un would not go to Russia, with a probability of 70-30 or 80-20. The reason is that the United States actively engaged in what is called cognitive warfare. Through The New York Times, they revealed Kim Jong Un's travel route, train location, and timing for the North Korea-Russia summit. Typically, North Korea would not travel under such circumstances. This is because the most significant characteristic of the North Korean regime is that events involving the supreme dignity, referred to as 'Number One,' are always shrouded in secrecy, and the leader's safety is paramount, so they do not wish for such information to be disclosed. Furthermore, traveling by train means one cannot leave the train, exposing them to intelligence agencies. In such a situation, especially someone with the personality of Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un's father, would absolutely avoid it, opting for concealment or secrecy. Secondly, if they were seen to be following the US's lead after the US revealed everything, it would appear as though their intelligence had been exposed. Specifically, when Russia invaded Ukraine last year, the date initially announced by the White House was February 14th. I recall it was Kim's birthday, coincidentally. However, it was later revealed that Russia was not preparing to invade on that day but waited ten days and invaded on the 24th. Therefore, my judgment was that they would adjust the timing, perhaps by departing later or postponing it to another time. However, they proceeded with the meeting.

After proceeding, the outcome can be interpreted in two ways. First, North Korea has a high degree of confidence in its nuclear capabilities. This is a characteristic of the North Korean regime; North Korea continues to provoke even during the period of joint South Korea-US military exercises. For example, during the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises in the latter half of this year, they launched a satellite with their daughter, Kim Ju Ae, accompanying them. Although it failed, it reflects their confidence that they cannot be easily threatened due to possessing nuclear weapons. This confidence was evident again this time. Second, Russia was that desperate.

From Russia's perspective, it seemed they did not have any more time to spare. Putin needed North Korea's help and support, so he proceeded despite the US revealing all the intelligence. Looking back, a few characteristic points emerge. As many of you have seen, Putin, the leader of Russia, stayed overnight the day before meeting Kim Jong Un and then arrived 30 minutes early to greet Kim Jong Un. This is quite unusual.

Putin is known for being late. He was over an hour late to meet the Pope, late to meet the Queen of England, and has even been three hours late. He has a personality that does as he pleases. This time, however, he arrived early and waited for Kim Jong Un. He then proceeded to explain everything on the first day, showing extreme hospitality. This can be interpreted as Russia being extremely desperate. Another piece of evidence for this is that after Kim Jong Un departed, both North Korea and Russia issued statements.

They announced that the summit would be held. The content of these statements indicates that both North Korea and Russia attended at Putin's invitation. Publicly, it was Putin's invitation, and in the actual meeting process, Putin's desperation was evident. As I mentioned before, Russia needs artillery shells for the ongoing war in Ukraine. It is known that Russia uses up to 100,000 shells per day, and they have nearly exhausted their supply. In a situation where the war in Ukraine involves trench warfare, artillery duels, and infantry battles, artillery shells are a critical weapon system. North Korea possesses these shells. There are reports of reserves up to 1 million tons, which I believe is plausible.

This is because North Korea has been preparing for war for the past 70 years and has stockpiles. Therefore, due to this direct necessity, Putin, who would never normally engage in behavior that violates diplomatic etiquette, showed extreme hospitality. Another key aspect observed this time, which has been widely reported, is that Putin chose the Vostochny Cosmodrome as the summit venue. This has significance. I believe North Korea and Russia made an excellent choice. The significance of the space base can be interpreted in several ways.

Regarding space, there are still no clear international norms or principles. How should space be utilized? We often talk about the peaceful development and utilization of space, but national interests still differ, and the number of countries capable of actively engaging in space exploration is limited. Therefore, the international community has not yet established universal principles and norms for it. This means there is room for interpretation. So, when Putin talks about cooperation in space, such as with satellites, it falls into a kind of grey zone.

Most cooperation with North Korea violates UN Security Council resolutions, making it an illegal act with legal force. However, cooperation in the space sector, such as with satellites, leaves room to secure at least minimal legitimacy and justification. In the past, when North Korea launched long-range rockets, which they now do openly, they always stated that they were launching them for space development and that the right to peaceful use of space belongs to all countries. China and Russia largely agreed with these claims and supported North Korea's position. Considering these factors, I believe they chose the space base. From North Korea's perspective, one of Kim Jong Un's top national agenda items is becoming a space power. As you know, they failed twice in satellite launches in May and August. Before that, Kim Jong Un was seen visiting the National Aerospace Development Administration with Kim Ju Ae and directing the work.

This indicates the level of interest in this area and topic. Therefore, the choice of the space base reflects Kim Jong Un's achievements and aspirations for space development. So, why is Kim Jong Un so obsessed with space? First, reconnaissance satellites are necessary. To improve the accuracy and operational capabilities of the ICBMs and missiles they are developing, North Korea clearly needs reconnaissance satellites. Second, he needs to achieve accomplishments that differentiate him from his predecessors. Unlike Kim Il Sung or Kim Jong Il, who could not even talk about space, he needs to demonstrate that he has achieved something through space development. Third, North Korea's current situation is dire.

The price of food in North Korea's markets is crucial. Reports indicate that the price is nearing 7,000 won per kilogram, the highest it has been in the last five years. This signifies the dire state of North Korea's economy. Conversely, when the economic situation is poor, Kim Jong Un needs to show achievements in other areas to rally the North Korean populace. One such area is military development through space exploration. Here's an interesting point: Putin mentioned training North Korean astronauts.

Upon hearing this, I realized I made a slight mistake. I initially thought it was just a casual remark from Putin, a mere expression of goodwill. However, what North Korea truly needs is not astronaut training for space development itself, but rather technology for reconnaissance satellites and intercontinental ballistic missiles. While he offered training, it leaves room for interpretation regarding Putin's intentions. Both sides' statements clearly reveal their objectives for this summit. Notably, the term 'anti-imperialism' is mentioned. 'Anti-imperialism' means opposing imperialism, and cooperating with Russia to dismantle it. To elaborate, North Korea is isolated by the international community due to its illegal nuclear activities. As a way to escape this isolation, they have chosen Russia as a partner. This is because Russia is also facing international scrutiny, led by the US, regarding its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, what Kim Jong Un expressed was that both Russia and North Korea are under offensive pressure from American imperialism and must unite to overcome and dismantle it. I believe this sentiment was one of Kim Jong Un's primary objectives in agreeing to the North Korea-Russia summit.

This sentiment was one of Kim Jong Un's primary objectives in agreeing to the North Korea-Russia summit. In the next session, we will analyze this summit further with related contexts. Thank you.

This sentiment was one of Kim Jong Un's primary objectives in agreeing to the North Korea-Russia summit. In the next session, we will analyze this summit further with related contexts. Thank you.