[Visible Commentary] Divergent Fortunes of the Republican and Democratic Parties: American Politics After the Midterm Elections

YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6t_eWcrVzpI

Professor Ha Sang-eung of Sogang University explains that the unexpected success of the Democratic Party in the midterm elections held across the United States on November 8 (local time) has put former President Donald Trump's political trajectory, who had announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, in jeopardy, and has increased the likelihood of President Biden running for re-election. Furthermore, he suggests that while the Republican Party's control of the House of Representatives may lead to changes in US policy towards Ukraine and the Inflation Reduction Act, South Korea should actively seek countermeasures to maximize its national interests, rather than passively calculating the impact of these changes in the American political landscape.

1. US Midterm Elections: Democrats' Unexpected Success 00:36

“House leans Republican, Senate is neck-and-neck”

2. Midterm Elections as a Prelude to the 2024 Presidential Election: Divergent Fortunes of Biden and Trump

1) “Trump's Presidential Bid in Jeopardy... Challenger DeSantis Achieves Landslide Victory” 03:49

2) “Will a Biden-Trump Rematch Materialize?” 07:30

3. Outlook for Future US Foreign Policy

1) “Republican Control of the House May Lead to Changes in Support for the War in Ukraine and the Inflation Reduction Act” 08:56

2) "South Korea Must Maximize National Interests Through Diplomacy Aligned with Changes in the US Political Landscape" 17:13

■ Ha Sang-eung_ Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Sogang University. Holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. His main research areas include political psychology, public opinion, voting behavior, and American politics. He previously served as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brooklyn College (CUNY) and as a Postdoctoral Researcher at Yale University (Institution for Social and Policy Studies). His recent research includes "The Crisis of American Democracy: The Rise of Trump and the Politics of Reaction," "The Impact of Prior Contact and Monetary Incentives on the Reliability of Election Polls," and "Personality Traits and Civic Engagement: The Case of South Korea."

Video Transcript

There were midterm elections, and what is the impact of these midterm election results on us? This is too passive a question. The changes in the US political situation are happening, and in response to those changes, how can we more actively pursue maximizing our own interests? We need to ask questions like this. This is because, naturally, politicians in the US are primarily interested in domestic politics, and as I mentioned, issues concerning South Korea will be quite low on the priority list in terms of foreign policy. There is Ukraine and Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, China, and then probably us. Therefore, if we want something, rather than expecting changes from the other side, we need to approach them first. And that should probably be an important principle in developing our foreign policy towards the United States. That's what I think.