[Commentary] Divergent Fortunes for Republicans and Democrats: U.S. Politics After the Midterm Elections

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6t_eWcrVzpI

Professor Ha Sang-eung of Sogang University explains that the Democratic Party's unexpectedly strong performance in the midterm elections held on November 8th (local time) has cast a shadow over the political trajectory of former President Donald Trump, who had signaled his intention to run in the 2024 presidential election, while increasing the likelihood of President Biden seeking re-election. Furthermore, he suggests that while the Republican Party's control of the House of Representatives may lead to changes in U.S. policy toward Ukraine and the Inflation Reduction Act, South Korea should actively seek countermeasures to maximize its national interests rather than passively calculating the impact of these shifts in the U.S. political landscape.

1. U.S. Midterm Elections: Democrats' Unexpectedly Strong Performance 00:36

“House Expected to Favor Republicans, Senate Too Close to Call”

2. Midterm Elections as a Prelude to the 2024 Presidential Election: Divergent Fortunes for Biden and Trump

1) “Trump's Presidential Ambitions Face Hurdles... Challenger DeSantis Achieves Landslide Victory” 03:49

2) “Will a Biden-Trump Rematch Materialize?” 07:30

3. Outlook for Future U.S. Foreign Policy

1) “Republican Control of the House May Lead to Changes in Support for the War in Ukraine and the Inflation Reduction Act” 08:56

2) “South Korea Must Maximize National Interests Through Diplomacy Aligned with U.S. Political Shifts” 17:13

■ Ha Sang-eung_ Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Sogang University. Obtained a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Chicago. His primary research areas include political psychology, public opinion, voting behavior, and American politics. He previously served as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brooklyn College (CUNY) and as a Postdoctoral Fellow at Yale University (Institution for Social and Policy Studies). His recent works include "The Crisis of American Democracy: The Rise of Trump and the Politics of Reaction," "The Impact of Advance Notification and Monetary Compensation on the Reliability of Election Polls," and "Personality Traits and Civic Engagement: The Case of South Korea."

Video Transcript

There were midterm elections, and the question of how their results will affect us is too passive. The changes in the U.S. political landscape are inevitable, and we need to ask how we can proactively respond to maximize our interests in accordance with these changes. This is because, naturally, politicians in the U.S. are primarily concerned with domestic politics, and as mentioned, issues concerning South Korea will be significantly lower in priority regarding foreign policy. There are Ukraine and Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and China; we will likely come after that. Therefore, if we desire something, we need to approach them proactively before expecting changes from their side. This should perhaps be an important principle in formulating our foreign policy toward the United States. I believe this is the case.