[Visible Commentary] Fluctuating ROK-China Relations Amidst the Taiwan Crisis: Where is South Korea Headed?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XionS1UAu4

EAI is launching the <Visible Commentary> series to provide timely and accessible analysis of major diplomatic issues. In this first installment, Lee Dong-ryul, Director of EAI's Center for Chinese Studies and Professor at Dongduk Women's University, analyzes the deepening US-China strategic competition following the visit of Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan and discusses future prospects. Furthermore, based on the results of EAI's <2022 Survey on Koreans' Perceptions of East Asia>, we examine the desirable direction for ROK-China relations on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties.

Part 1. US-China Competition and the Taiwan Issue 00:00

Q1. Given the confrontation between the US and China following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the responses of neighboring countries, what are some unexpected or unusual aspects?

Q2. How do you anticipate the Taiwan situation will unfold?

Part 2. South Korean Perceptions of China 07:12

Q1. The proportion of respondents who believe South Korea should remain neutral in the event of a serious conflict between the US and China has decreased compared to 2019, while the proportion supporting the US has increased. How do you interpret this trend in public opinion?

Q2. How do you foresee ROK-China relations developing in the future?

Q3. Regarding the THAAD deployment, the highest proportion of respondents answered, 'Normalize the operation of already deployed THAAD but oppose further deployment.' What position should the South Korean government take?

Part 3. China's Role in North Korean Issues 13:55

Q. What role do you believe China should play in the North Korean nuclear issue?

Part 4. Direction for ROK-China Relations 17:17

Q. What do you consider ideal ROK-China relations? How do you foresee ROK-China relations developing in the future?

■ Lee Dong-ryul_ Director of EAI's Center for Chinese Studies. Professor at Dongduk Women's University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Peking University's School of International Studies, served as President of the Association for Modern Chinese Studies, and is currently a member of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Policy Advisory Committee. His main research areas include China's foreign relations, Chinese nationalism, and ethnic minority issues. His recent publications include "China's Strategy and Role in the Denuclearization and Peace Process on the Korean Peninsula," "Evolution and Current Implications of China's Foreign Discourse Since the 1990s," "A Geoeconomic Approach and Geopolitical Dilemma of Xi Jinping's 'Maritime Power' Initiative," "Deciphering China’s Security Intentions in Northeast Asia: A View from South Korea," and "China's Territorial Disputes" (co-authored).

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Jeong-hoo_ EAI Research Fellow

    For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 205) | jhpark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

All ten members are concerned about the growing anxiety regarding the legitimacy and justification of the Communist Party's rule. The legitimacy and justification for the Communist Party's rule still depend on China's economic growth, on whether China can achieve the economic growth that fulfills the so-called Chinese Dream. Therefore, it is highly likely that China will prioritize stably managing the international environment and delaying excessive strategic competition with the US as much as possible. There is a consensus on wanting to maintain the status quo regarding the Taiwan issue, but the core problem is the deepening distrust regarding this desire to maintain the status quo. If there is no way or alternative to resolve this distrust, the Taiwan issue could continue to escalate tensions.