[Visible Commentary] Shifting China-Korea Relations Amidst the Taiwan Crisis: Where is Korea Headed?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XionS1UAu4

EAI is launching the <Visible Commentary> series to provide timely analysis of major diplomatic issues in an accessible and convenient manner. For the first installment, EAI China Research Center Director Lee Dong-ryul (Professor, Dongduk Women's University) discusses the deepening US-China strategic competition following House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, offering analysis and future prospects. Additionally, based on EAI's <2022 Survey on Koreans' Perceptions of East Asia>, we examine the desirable direction for the development of Korea-China relations on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of diplomatic ties.

Part 1. US-China Competition and the Taiwan Issue 00:00

Q1. Given the confrontation between the US and China following Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and the responses of neighboring countries, what are some unexpected or unusual aspects?

Q2. How do you anticipate the Taiwan situation will unfold?

Part 2. Koreans' Perceptions of China 07:12

Q1. The proportion of respondents who believe Korea should remain neutral in the event of a serious conflict between the US and China has decreased compared to 2019, while the proportion supporting the US has increased. How do you interpret this trend in public opinion?

Q2. How do you foresee future Korea-China relations developing?

Q3. Regarding the THAAD deployment, the highest percentage of respondents answered, 'Normalize the operation of already deployed THAAD but oppose further deployment.' What would be the best way for the Korean government to formulate its position?

Part 3. China's Role in North Korean Issues 13:55

Q. What role do you believe China should play in the North Korean nuclear issue?

Part 4. Direction of Korea-China Relations Development 17:17

Q. What do you consider to be the ideal Korea-China relationship? How do you foresee future Korea-China relations developing?

■ Lee Dong-ryul_ Director of EAI China Research Center. Professor at Dongduk Women's University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Peking University and has served as President of the Association for Modern Chinese Studies. He is currently a member of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Policy Advisory Committee. His main research areas include China's foreign relations, Chinese nationalism, and ethnic minority issues. His recent publications include "China's Strategy and Role in the Korean Peninsula Denuclearization and Peace Process," "Evolution and Current Implications of China's Foreign Policy Discourse Since the 1990s," "Geoeconomic Approach and Geopolitical Dilemmas of Xi Jinping's 'Maritime Power' Initiative," "Deciphering China’s Security Intentions in Northeast Asia: A View from South Korea," and "China's Territorial Disputes" (co-authored).

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Jeong-hoo_ EAI Researcher

    For inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 205) | jhpark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

All ten members are concerned about the growing anxiety regarding the legitimacy and justification of the Communist Party's rule. The legitimacy and justification for the Communist Party's rule still depend on China's economic growth, on whether China can achieve the economic growth necessary for the so-called Chinese Dream. Therefore, it is highly likely that the priority will be to delay excessive strategic competition with the United States as much as possible and to manage the international environment stably. There is a consensus that the Taiwan issue should maintain the status quo, but the core problem is the deepening distrust regarding this desire to maintain the status quo. If there is no way or alternative to resolve this distrust, the Taiwan issue could continue to escalate the tensions.