Korean Peninsula Trust-Building Process 2.0: A Complex Approach of Deterrence, Engagement, and Trust

“Evolving the Trust-Building Process for a Unified Korea”

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The long-standing vicious cycle of inter-Korean relations has historically found it difficult to achieve a breakthrough. The July 4th South-North Joint Communiqué in the early 1970s shattered like a midsummer night's dream, and the Basic Agreement between South and North Korea and the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in the early 1990s became faded documents, forgotten. The two inter-Korean summits held in the 21st century also failed to find a new path to overcome the adversarial relationship between South and North Korea. Although new political leaders emerged in both South and North Korea in the 2010s, the window of opportunity remains closed. President Park Geun-hye's Dresden Initiative for Peace and Unification on the Korean Peninsula speech in late March and North Korea's National Defense Commission spokesperson's statement in response accurately reflect the current reality of the Korean Peninsula.

In response, the East Asia Institute (EAI) proposes a new direction for North Korea policy, and indeed for unification diplomacy, from a new perspective of "Co-advancement for Convergence" over the past decade in search of a new breakthrough in the vicious cycle of inter-Korean relations. This requires efforts to evolve and develop existing unification discussions to fit the era of complex transformation in the 21st century. Thus, the EAI has initiated a new joint research project that complexly combines Korea's Trust-Building Process 2.0, which pursues deterrence, engagement, and trust in a complex manner; North Korea's parallel development policy 2.0, which simultaneously builds denuclearization and security with the economy; and the neighboring countries' East Asia New Order Architecture 2.0. As the first fruit of this effort, we present the draft prepared under the title "Proposal for a New North Korea Policy: Towards the Evolution of the Trust-Building Process" at the meeting in October last year, to government officials and leading conservative and progressive experts on the Korean Peninsula in Korea.

A Proposal for a New North Korea Policy Paving the Way for Peace

What measures are needed to move inter-Korean relations, which have repeatedly gone through cycles of crisis and negotiation, towards an irreversible path of peace through substantive negotiations? The new North Korea policy aims to induce a change from the deterrence phase in the third quadrant to the trust phase in the first quadrant of the diagram "War and Peace on the Korean Peninsula" and contributes to building a peace order on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia. To this end, a complex approach to North Korea strategy, encompassing deterrence, engagement, and trust, must be developed. This is by no means a phased approach of deterrence-engagement-trust. A phased approach, given past unsuccessful experiences, could lead to another cycle of regression. Therefore, a complex strategy is needed that simultaneously pursues diplomatic efforts in the three phases, approaching from both internal and external perspectives to gradually settle inter-Korean relations from a state of war and conflict to a state of peace and trust.

Table of Contents

Abstract

Chapter 1: General Discussion

Chapter 2: Diplomacy

Chapter 3: Security and Military Affairs

Chapter 4: Economy

Appendix

1. [EAI Commentary No. 32] Ha Young-sun, "Navigating North Korea in 2014: An Hermeneutics of the New Year's Address"

2. Kim Jong-un, First Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, New Year's Address (January 1, 2014)

3. Kim Jong-un, First Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, Report to the 3rd Plenary Meeting of the Central Committee (March 31, 2013)

4. Park Geun-hye, "A Journey Towards a New Inter-Korean Relationship" (December 30, 2013)

5. Park Geun-hye, Address to a Joint Session of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives (May 9, 2013)

6. Park Geun-hye, Address at the Dresden University of Technology for an Honorary Doctorate, "Initiative for Peace and Unification on the Korean Peninsula" (March 28, 2014)

For the convenience of our readers, we are releasing parts of the manuscript of this book.

Attachment: Trust2_1.pdf