[EAI Special Report] Special Series on Taiwan: How to Understand and Respond to the Rising Taiwan Issue_Intent of the Project

“How to Understand and Respond to the Rising Taiwan Issue”

Since the beginning of 2021, Taiwan's rapid rise has been drawing international attention. With the Taiwan Strait being identified as “the most dangerous area on Earth,” the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait has been repeatedly emphasized in high-level meetings, including the US-Japan Summit in April 2021, the US-ROK Summit in May 2021, and the G7 Summit in June 2021, making Taiwan's security a global concern. Amidst the US pressure on China within a “democracy vs. authoritarianism” framework, the strategic value of “Taiwan's democracy” is on the rise. Taiwan's semiconductor industry, represented by TSMC, has achieved an irreplaceable position in the global market, and Taiwan's GDP per capita has now reached the level of South Korea. Despite recent difficulties, Taiwan's epidemic prevention system has received international acclaim.

The reasons for this increased attention on Taiwan are undeniably the deterioration of US-China relations and the intensification of US-China strategic competition. The principle of “peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue,” which was a prerequisite for the normalization of US-China diplomatic relations in 1978, is being undermined by the Xi Jinping government's military pressure on Taiwan and the US's expanded arms sales and diplomatic support for Taiwan. Consequently, security issues surrounding Taiwan are impacting the security policies of not only the two major powers, the US and China, but also Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries. This means that the Taiwan issue and the Asia-Pacific order are becoming closely intertwined. Will China initiate an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait? What security strategies is Taiwan employing in response? What will be the impact of China's attempts to change the status quo by force on the Asia-Pacific order and economic environment? What can South Korea and Japan do to ensure peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait?

Meanwhile, the attention focused on semiconductors, the symbol of Taiwan's economy, is not only because TSMC is a dominant player in advanced chip manufacturing but also because it is at the center of US-China competition from an economic security perspective. If one of the reasons China seeks to reclaim Taiwan is to control Taiwan's semiconductor industry and achieve its own semiconductor advancement, then conversely, the US has a reason to protect TSMC, which occupies a key node in its self-centered semiconductor supply network. Ultimately, the more globally irreplaceable TSMC becomes, the greater Taiwan's security influence will rise. What are the characteristics and success factors of TSMC and Taiwan's semiconductor industry? How will Taiwan's identity politics affect its future economic relations with China? How will the supply chain competition between the US and China unfold, and what strategies will TSMC and Taiwan's semiconductor industry adopt? Is cooperation between South Korea and Taiwan possible amidst the US-China semiconductor competition? What considerations and efforts are needed to promote relations between South Korea and Taiwan?

EAI's Special Report on Taiwan aims to answer these questions by bringing together the wisdom of six experts from South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. South Korea's economy, for which semiconductors are a lifeline, cannot remain unaffected by the Taiwan issue, and South Korea's security, which relies on the ROK-US alliance, is subject to the repercussions of the US's readjustment of its Taiwan policy. Furthermore, Taiwan, which is in a de facto divided state and at the epicenter of US-China competition, faces structural conditions very similar to South Korea, making the Taiwan case a valuable implication for South Korea's pursuit of foreign policy. The time has come for serious research on Taiwan.

The publication schedule for the report is as follows.

1. Woo, Chung-li, Challenges Facing South Korea and Taiwan Amidst Shifting International Dynamics (Published June 17)

2. Wang, Hsin-hsien, Taiwan's Security Strategy and Challenges in the Era of US-China Competition (Published June 17)

3. Moon, Heung-ho, US-China Competition and the Taiwan Issue: A South Korean Perspective (Published June 22)

4. Ogasawara, Yoshiyuki, Tensions Between the US, China, and Japan Surrounding Taiwan: Japan's View on the Mention of 'Taiwan' in the US-Japan Joint Statement (Published June 24)

5. Bae, Young-ja, US-China Technological Hegemony Competition and Taiwan's Strategy: Focusing on the Semiconductor Sector (Published June 29)

6. Seol, In-hyo, Strategic Implications and Mid-to-Long-Term Prospects of the Taiwan Strait Issue (Published July 1)