[EAI Special Report] Taiwan Special Series: How to Understand and Respond to the Rising Taiwan Issue_Planning Intent

"How to Understand and Respond to the Rising Taiwan Issue"

Since the beginning of 2021, Taiwan's rapid rise has captured the attention of the international community. With the Taiwan Strait being designated as "the most dangerous area on Earth," the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait has been repeatedly emphasized in high-level meetings, including the US-Japan Summit in April 2021, the US-ROK Summit in May 2021, and the G7 Summit in June 2021, making Taiwan's security a global concern. As the United States pressures China within a "democracy vs. authoritarianism" framework, the strategic value of "Taiwan's democracy" is on the rise. Taiwan's semiconductor industry, represented by TSMC, has achieved an irreplaceable position in the global market, and Taiwan's per capita GDP has reached the level of South Korea. Despite recent difficulties, Taiwan's epidemic prevention system has received international acclaim.

The reasons for this increased attention on Taiwan are undoubtedly the deterioration of US-China relations and the intensification of US-China strategic competition. The principle of "peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue," which was a prerequisite for the normalization of US-China diplomatic relations in 1978, is being hollowed out by the Xi Jinping administration's military pressure on Taiwan and the expansion of US arms sales and diplomatic support for Taiwan. Consequently, security issues surrounding Taiwan are affecting the security policies of Japan and South Korea, as well as Southeast Asian countries, beyond the two major powers of the US and China. This signifies that the Taiwan issue and the Asia-Pacific order are becoming closely intertwined. Will China initiate an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait? What security strategies is Taiwan employing to respond? What will be the impact of China's attempts to alter the status quo by force on the Asia-Pacific order and economic environment? What can South Korea and Japan do to ensure peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait?

Meanwhile, the attention focused on semiconductors, the symbol of Taiwan's economy, is not only because TSMC is a dominant player in advanced chip manufacturing but also because it is at the center of US-China competition from an economic security perspective. If one of the reasons China seeks to reclaim Taiwan is to control Taiwan's semiconductor industry and achieve its semiconductor ambitions, then conversely, the US has reasons to protect TSMC, which occupies a key node in its self-centered semiconductor supply network. Ultimately, the more globally irreplaceable TSMC becomes, the greater Taiwan's security influence will grow. What are the characteristics and success factors of TSMC and Taiwan's semiconductor industry? How will Taiwan's identity politics affect its future economic relations with China? How will the supply chain competition between the US and China unfold, and what strategies will TSMC and Taiwan's semiconductor industry adopt? Is cooperation between South Korea and Taiwan possible amidst the US-China semiconductor competition? What considerations and efforts are necessary to promote relations between South Korea and Taiwan?

EAI's Special Report on Taiwan aims to answer these questions by bringing together the insights of six experts from South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The South Korean economy, for which semiconductors are a lifeline, cannot remain indifferent to the Taiwan issue, and South Korea's security, which relies on the US-ROK alliance, is subject to the repercussions of the US's readjustment of its Taiwan policy. Furthermore, Taiwan, which is in a de facto divided state and at the vortex of US-China competition, faces structural conditions remarkably similar to those of South Korea, making the Taiwan case a valuable reference for South Korea's pursuit of foreign policy strategies. The time has come for serious research on Taiwan.

The publication schedule for the reports is as follows.

1. Woo Chung-lee, Challenges Faced by South Korea and Taiwan Amidst Shifting Global Dynamics (Published June 17)

2. Wang Hsin-hsien, Taiwan's Security Strategy and Challenges in the Era of US-China Competition (Published June 17)

3. Moon Heung-ho, US-China Competition and the Taiwan Issue: A South Korean Perspective (Published June 22)

4. Ogasawara Yoshiyuki, Tensions Among the US, China, and Japan Surrounding Taiwan: Japan's View on the Mention of 'Taiwan' in the US-Japan Joint Statement (Published June 24)

5. Bae Young-ja, US-China Technological Hegemony Conflict and Taiwan's Strategy: Focusing on the Semiconductor Sector (Published June 29)

6. Seol In-hyo, Strategic Implications and Mid-to-Long-Term Prospects of the Taiwan Strait Issue (Published July 1)