Analysis of the Impact of Ukrainian Military Leadership Changes and Shifting War Dynamics on Military Strength

Executive Summary

Ukraine has entered a 'dual crisis' phase, triggered by internal political instability from the dismissal of Defense Minister Fedorov and consideration of replacing Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, coinciding with Russia's largest-ever missile offensive against Kyiv. This situation presents an unstable equilibrium where tactical successes from drone and asymmetric strike strategies (repeated attacks on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure) coexist with strategic vulnerabilities due to leadership vacuums. The basic scenario (50% probability) is considered most likely. The policy discontinuity risk concerning the drone innovation track and uncertainty in Western support are expected to be key variables affecting Ukraine's future military strength. For businesses, a dual-track strategy is required: prioritizing supply chain risk diversification and energy price hedging in the short term; selectively participating in drone and defense industry cooperation after confirming policy continuity in the medium term; and establishing a pre-emptive position in the post-war reconstruction market in the long term.

I. Issue Situation Analysis

Analysis of Ukraine War: Military Leadership Changes and Shifting War Dynamics

1. Background and Progression of the Issue

■ Background of Military Leadership Change - Zelensky appointed Fedorov as Defense Minister in early 2025 (approx. 6-month tenure)[4] - Fedorov gained public support through leading drone technology innovation[13] - Deepening conflict between Fedorov and Syrskyi (Commander-in-Chief) is the core reason for the change[7] - Clash of policy lines between the innovation faction (Fedorov) and the traditional military establishment (Syrskyi) - On July 15, Zelensky decided on the immediate dismissal after a meeting with Syrskyi and Fedorov[11]

■ Institutional Progression - On July 16, the Parliament approved Koretsky as the new Prime Minister, leading to Fedorov's automatic loss of position[9] - On July 17, the Cabinet appointed Hmara, head of the SBU, as acting Defense Minister[9] - Interior Minister Klymenko is mentioned as a potential successor to Fedorov[7] - Zelensky is also considering replacing Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi[10]

2. Current Situation (Latest Developments)

■ Domestic Political and Social Trends - Large-scale protests erupted in major cities including Kyiv immediately after Fedorov's dismissal[15] - Protests continued for three consecutive days from July 16-18, with the slogan "Change will surely come" spreading[8] - Zelensky attempted to resolve the situation through continuous meetings with military leadership[6] - Rumors of replacing Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi are surfacing, increasing leadership uncertainty[5][10]

■ Battlefield Trends (July 17-20) - July 18: Two Russian logistics centers and fuel storage facilities attacked; Black Sea and Sea of Azov vessels attacked[12] - July 19: Four fuel storage facilities in Stavropol region and three tankers of the Black Sea shadow fleet attacked[3] - July 20: Logistics and fuel storage facilities in the Moscow region confirmed attacked; six Black Sea vessels (two tankers, four cargo ships) attacked[1][2] - Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl region attacked[16] - Russia launched its largest-ever ballistic missile attack on Kyiv[8] - Deployed 125 drones, 25 ballistic missiles, and 10 Zircon hypersonic missiles - At least 1 person killed and 17 injured

■ Russian Trends - Redeployment of frontline drone assets to strengthen shadow fleet defense, raising concerns about frontline weakening[8] - Possibility of accelerated mobilization after the Russian parliamentary elections (September 18-20)[14]

3. Key Actors, Positions, and Interests

■ President Zelensky - Position: Pushing for leadership change under the pretext of military integration and efficiency - Interests: - Need to maintain political leadership amidst a prolonged war - Mending internal military conflicts and securing Western support credibility - Risk of weakened political standing due to spreading domestic protests[6]

■ Former Defense Minister Fedorov - Position: Represents the drone innovation track, possesses a base of public support - Interests: - Dismissed due to policy conflict with the traditional military[7] - Potential for political comeback by rallying supporters[13]

■ Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi - Position: Adheres to traditional military command structure - Interests: - Facing replacement rumors after Fedorov's dismissal[10] - Dilemma between command continuity on the front lines and political pressure

■ Ukrainian Civil Society - Position: Demands maintenance of innovative leadership, calls for political transparency - Interests: - Security concerns regarding the weakening of drone capabilities - Demands for wartime democracy and leadership accountability[15]

■ Russia - Position: Exploiting Ukraine's internal turmoil as a military opportunity - Interests: - Intensifying psychological warfare through large-scale missile attacks on Kyiv[8] - Minimizing damage to energy infrastructure and protecting the shadow fleet

■ The West (NATO·EU) - Position: Maintaining the principle of continued support for Ukraine - Interests: - Potential for cracks within the alliance exposed at the NATO Ankara Summit - Lockheed Martin supports licensing for Patriot missile production in Ukraine[4] - EU imposes additional sanctions on Russian drone manufacturers[9]

4. Summary of Key Issues

■ Issue 1: Strategic Validity of Military Leadership Changes - Risk of decreased frontline response capability due to wartime command system vacuum - Undecided direction between innovation (drones) and traditional military doctrine - Risk of undermining command continuity if Syrskyi is replaced[5][10]

■ Issue 2: Zelensky's Political Leadership Crisis - Three consecutive days of public protests challenging wartime political legitimacy[8] - Potential for accelerated leadership weakening if further concessions are made during crisis management - Concerns about declining Western partners' confidence in Ukraine's political stability[6]

■ Issue 3: Sustainability of Long-Range Strike Strategy - Cumulative impact of attacks on Russian energy and logistics infrastructure[1][2][3][12][16] - Visible pressure of fuel shortages and price increases within Russia[14] - Uncertainty about the impact of military leadership turmoil on drone operation continuity - Intensification of Russian retaliatory strikes (largest missile attack ever) leading to a war of attrition[8]

■ Issue 4: Sustainability of Western Support - Signals of alliance division detected at the NATO Ankara Summit - Coexistence of positive signals, such as Lockheed Martin's support for Patriot license[4] - Attention on the impact of Ukraine's internal turmoil on Western public opinion and support intentions

--- ※ This report was prepared based on publicly available information as of July 20, 2026.

II. In-depth Issue Analysis

Ukraine War: In-depth Analysis of Military Leadership Change and Shifting Frontlines

1. Analysis of Fundamental Causes of the Issue

■ Structural Conflict of Ideological Strife within the Military -Innovationists vs. Traditionalists The core cause is the strategic divergence between the 'innovationist' and 'traditionalist' factions. - Fedorov: Spearheaded a modernization drive focused on drones and asymmetric warfare [13]. - Syrskyi: Adhered to a traditional command structure centered on large-scale Soviet-style ground operations [7]. - Escalating resource and authority disputes between the two factions due to the increasing strategic importance of drone capabilities. - Drone units have emerged as a critical frontline force, leading to clashes over command authority. - Ambiguous institutional boundaries of authority between the Ministry of Defense (Fedorov) and the General Staff (Syrskyi).

■ Zelenskyy's Political Miscalculation - Sudden dismissal of popular ministers eroded the foundation of public trust [6]. - Attempts to centralize wartime leadership inadvertently fueled internal divisions. - Structural reforms linked to parliamentary cabinet changes (confirmation of Prime Minister Koretsky) exacerbated confusion [9]. - Simultaneous emergence of rumors regarding Syrskyi's potential replacement heightened concerns about leadership vacuum [10].

■ Accumulated Fatigue from Prolonged War - Over four and a half years of continuous conflict have pushed public and military fatigue to a critical point [15]. - Conflicts over mobilization and troop shortages are compounding the military leadership disputes. - Internal turmoil occurred concurrently with Russia's large-scale missile attacks on Kyiv (July 19) [8]. - Exposure of internal fissures amidst escalating external threats increases strategic vulnerability.

2. Structural Context

■ Political Structure -Authoritarian Centralization Tendencies During Wartime - Zelenskyy has increasingly concentrated administrative and military authority within the Presidential Office amid the prolonged war. - Weakened parliamentary functions and restricted party activities have eliminated checks and balances. -Institutional Immaturity of Civil-Military Relations - Unclear division of roles between the Ministry of Defense (civilian control) and the General Staff (military command). - Absence of mechanisms to mediate conflicts between these two bodies during wartime. -Paradoxical Rise of Populist Politics - Thousands participated in protests even under martial law, confirming civil society's resilience [15]. - Declining approval ratings for Zelenskyy raise the potential for political lame-duck status.

■ Economic and Industrial Structure -Strategic Asset Status of the Drone Industry - Under Fedorov's leadership, Ukraine's drone industry has rapidly grown, becoming a core national defense infrastructure. - Drone units had struck over one million targets by early 2026 [9]. - Uncertainty regarding the continuity of drone industry policy following the ministerial change. -Impact of Attacks on Russian Energy Infrastructure - Ukraine's sustained attacks on oil facilities and refineries have led to fuel shortages and price increases in Russia [14]. - Successful deep strikes in Yaroslavl, Stavropol, and Moscow regions [3][16]. - Diversion of frontline drone assets to defend against Russia's shadow fleet increases pressure on Russian resource allocation [8].

■ Security Structure -Strategic Emergence of Asymmetric Capabilities - Drones and long-range strikes have become key means to break the frontline stalemate. - Attacks on the Black Sea shadow fleet continue to pressure Russia's energy export routes [1][2][3]. -Uncertainty in NATO Support Structure - Reports of potential cracks within the alliance at the Ankara NATO summit. - Discussions on licensing domestic production of Patriot missiles reflect the need for self-reliance in Western support [4]. - Internal turmoil could send negative signals to Western partners regarding support reliability. -Russia's Escalation Response - Russia launched its largest-ever ballistic missile attack during Ukraine's internal turmoil [8]. - Inclusion of ten Zircon hypersonic missiles employed saturation tactics against air defenses. - Increased pressure on the frontlines is anticipated with accelerated mobilization following Russian parliamentary elections [14].

3. Comparative Analysis with Historical Precedents and Similar Cases

■ Ukrainian Internal Precedents -Replacement of Commander-in-Chief Valuta in 2024 - Zelenskyy dismissed the popular Valuta in February 2024 and appointed Syrskyi. - Domestic backlash and Western concerns were raised at the time, but stabilized after a short period of turmoil. - The current situation shares a similar pattern, but the scale and duration of protests are more severe now. -Wartime Cabinet Reshuffle in 2022 - Multiple ministers and high-ranking officials were replaced at the beginning of the war. - Political costs were minimized under the justification of wartime emergency measures. - The effectiveness of this strategy is diminished due to accumulated war fatigue.

■ International Similar Cases -Israel (During the Gaza War, 2023-2024) - Conflict between Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant serves as a modern example of civil-military conflict during wartime. - Dismissal of the Defense Minister in November 2023 drew domestic and international criticism. - Structural similarities with the Ukrainian situation: wartime leadership centralization versus military expertise clashes. -United States during the Vietnam War (1960s) - Replacement of General Westmoreland in 1968 signaled an attempt at strategic shift. - Military leadership changes can signal strategic shifts but are accompanied by short-term turmoil. - A precedent where failure to maintain strategic consistency after a change leads to worsening war conditions. -Soviet Union during World War II (1941-1942) - Stalin purged and replaced several generals after initial defeats. - A period of short-term turmoil was followed by the rise of capable figures like Zhukov, leading to a reversal of fortunes. - The success of such changes depends on the capabilities of the successors and the speed of organizational stabilization.

■ Implications from Precedents - Wartime military leadership changes areunavoidably accompanied by short-term turmoilbut their long-term effects depend on the capabilities of the successors. Changes made without public support base incurrapidly escalating political costsandescalation by the enemy during periods of internal turmoil is a historically recurring pattern.

4. Key Variables in the Development of the Issue

■ Variable 1: Fate of Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi - If replaced → Risk of prolonged command vacuum and frontline instability increases [10]. - If retained → Potential for conflict with Fedorov's supporters remains, and organizational integration remains a challenge. -Key Observation Point: The identity and strategic orientation (innovationist vs. traditionalist) of the successor Commander-in-Chief.

■ Variable 2: Persistence and Spread of Domestic Protests - Continued protests for three consecutive days → Potential for organization and politicization [8]. - If solidarity forms with opposition parties and civil society, Zelenskyy's political crisis will deepen. -Key Observation Point: Whether the protesters' demands escalate from Fedorov's reinstatement to Zelenskyy's resignation.

■ Variable 3: Continuity of the Drone Industry and Capabilities - Whether the institutional continuity of Fedorov-led drone innovation policies is maintained [13]. - The direction of drone strategy succession or transition by the next Minister of Defense. -Key Observation Point: The continuity of defense self-sufficiency policies, such as pursuing domestic production licenses for Patriot missiles [4].

■ Variable 4: Stability of Western Support - Outcome of the NATO Ankara Meeting and Realization of Alliance Divisions - Impact of Internal Ukrainian Chaos on Western Support Sentiment - Key Observation Points: Changes in the Scale and Conditions of Military Support Packages from the US and Europe

■ Variable 5: Russia's Escalation Level - Possibility of intensified front-line offense by exploiting internal Ukrainian chaos - Acceleration of mobilization after Russian parliamentary elections (September) → Increased pressure on troops [14] - Key Observation Points: Frequency of Russia's additional large-scale missile attacks and attempts to break through front lines

■ Variable 6: Sustainability of Ukraine's Long-Range Strike Strategy - Continued success of deep strikes in Moscow Oblast, Yaroslavl, Stavropol, etc. [1][3][16] - Strikes on the Black Sea shadow fleet → Cumulative pressure on Russian energy exports - Key Observation Points: Speed of Russia's air defense enhancement versus Ukraine's drone force maintenance capability