[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 61-1] President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating Rises, Why?

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 61] Regular Public Opinion Barometer Survey 2

1. Factors for President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Rating Increase: Moderate Pragmatism/Economy/North Korea Policy/Governance Style

2. Future Approval Rating Fluctuation Forecast: Four Major Rivers Project-Sejong City-September 3 Cabinet Reshuffle-October 28 Local Elections

Moderate Pragmatism, Performance (Economic Crisis/North Korea Policy), and Inclusion are Keywords

Moderate Pragmatism Supported by 58.0%, Approval Rating in the 40% Range

The entry of President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating into the 40% range, long anticipated by the Blue House and the ruling party, has become a reality. The reasons for this increase in approval rating are as follows: First, in terms of policy direction, the emphasis on a moderate pragmatic approach has succeeded in shedding the administration's initial image of being pro-business and having a cabinet of the wealthy. The rapidly increasing public support for the moderate pragmatic approach is evidence of this. In a survey conducted on July 25, 39.8% (Very Positive 6.7%, Somewhat Positive 33.1%) of respondents evaluated President Lee Myung-bak's moderate pragmatism positively, while 50.1% (Very Negative 15.2%, Somewhat Negative 34.9%) responded negatively. Two months later, positive responses have surged to 58.0% (Very Positive 8.3%, Somewhat Positive 49.6%), with negative responses at 32.3% (Very Negative 7.9%, Somewhat Negative 24.5%). The level of public support and consensus for the moderate pragmatic approach has increased.

[Figure 1] Changes in Evaluation of Moderate Pragmatism (%) (Don't Know/No Answer Not Shown)

Improved Perception of Economic Crisis: Decrease in "Deteriorated" Responses

Second, the performance of economic policies aimed at overcoming the economic crisis has been favorable. Economically, although concerns about an economic crisis comparable to the IMF crisis due to the U.S. financial crisis a year ago were high, objective economic indicators such as exports and stock prices have shown a rapid recovery within just one year. The perceived economy is also significantly improving. In a survey on the first anniversary of MB's inauguration conducted by EAI and JoongAng Ilbo in February, 93.1% responded that the Korean economy had deteriorated compared to a year prior. In a survey on social strata perception conducted by EAI and JoongAng Ilbo in September, the response that it had worsened dropped sharply to 67.6%. Regarding household economic situations, the response that it had worsened was 50.9% in the February survey, but in this survey, the response that it had worsened decreased to 40.7%.

[Figure 2] Evaluation of National and Household Economy: "Deteriorated" (%) [EAI & JoongAng Ilbo February, September Survey Results]

Grand Bargain Policy Supported by 71.3%

49.4% Find President Lee Myung-bak's North Korea Policy Appropriate

Third, the recent easing of tensions with North Korea is also a favorable condition. At the beginning of the year, security concerns were high due to North Korea's long-range missile launch and second nuclear test, and there were significant worries about inter-Korean relations. In a survey conducted by our research team in June, immediately after the second nuclear test, public opinion favoring the maintenance or expansion of the previous administration's Sunshine Policy rose to 73.1%. However, following former President Clinton's visit to Pyongyang in August, inter-Korean tensions have eased, and favorable public opinion towards the current administration's North Korea policy has been forming. In this survey, 49.4% evaluated the Lee Myung-bak administration's North Korea policy as appropriate, reaching a majority, while only 33.8% considered it too hard-line and 13.4% considered it too conciliatory. The Grand Bargain proposal, which offers clear security guarantees and international support to North Korea in exchange for denuclearization, received positive evaluations from 71.3% (Very Positive 15.2%, Somewhat Positive 56.0%).

[Figure 3] Evaluation of Current Administration's North Korea Policy (%)

[Figure 4] Evaluation of Grand Bargain Policy (%)

Shift in Focus from Unilateral Pace to Inclusion and Integration

The shift in focus from a unilateral governance style to inclusion and integration also supports the rise in approval ratings. In a public opinion poll in June, when approval ratings plummeted, 58.5% of the general public responded that pro-Park Geun-hye factions should be included, and a significant 76.3% stated that efforts should be made to improve relations with the opposition parties/opposing forces. Recently, the Blue House and the ruling party have attempted to achieve intra-party harmony through the appointment of pro-Park faction lawmakers and a meeting between the President and former representative Park Geun-hye. Intra-party factional conflict has now subsided. However, while improving relations with the opposition remains distant due to the confirmation hearings for the September 3 cabinet reshuffle and the Sejong City issue, the President's actions are gaining momentum as the opposition parties themselves are experiencing stagnant approval ratings.

[Figure 5] Agreement Rate on Each State Reform Proposal (%) [EAI June Survey Results]