[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 56-2] Analysis of Party Support Rates: Party Support Rates Have Stagnated Since the June Political Turmoil

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 56] Presidential Approval Ratings and Changes in Party Support Rates in August

1. Analysis of Presidential Approval Ratings: Is the Pragmatic Centrist Approach Rekindling?

2. Analysis of Party Support Rates: Party Support Rates Have Stagnated Since the June Political Turmoil

Independents 30.1%, Grand National Party 27.6%, Democratic Party 22.0%, Democratic Labor Party 6.2%, Pro-Park United Party 4.9%, etc.

Little Change in Party Support Rates Since the June Political Turmoil

In terms of party support rates in August, the largest group was 'Independents' (those with no party affiliation or who did not know), at 30.1%. This was followed by supporters of the Grand National Party at 27.6% and supporters of the Democratic Party at 22.0%. The Democratic Labor Party garnered 6.2%, the Pro-Park United Party 4.9%, and the Liberty Forward Party 3.8%. Creative Korea Party received 1.7%, and the New Progressive Party 2.3%.

While the government has recently succeeded in boosting its approval ratings by focusing on pragmatic centrist and pro-commoner policies, the Grand National Party's support rate has remained largely unchanged, hovering at 29.0% in the June survey, 26.9% in the July survey, and 27.6% in the current survey. This indicates that the rise in presidential approval ratings is not translating into support for the ruling party. The party appears to be failing to expand its support and trust among the public, remaining entangled in factional conflicts between pro-Lee and pro-Park factions rather than exercising political leadership as the ruling party.

[Figure 1] August Party Support Rates (%)

The Democratic Party, which has focused on street protests since the media legislation dispute, also experienced a rise in support rates to the 20% range immediately following the death of President Roh Moo-hyun, but has since struggled to expand its support base. Prior to the death of former President Roh, the Democratic Party maintained support rates in the 10% range, but entered the 20% range after his death in May, recording 23.9% in the June survey and 21.8% in the July survey. There was no change in the August survey, with support at 22.0%. While the party has focused on playing the role of political mourner following the death of former President Kim Dae-jung, it has failed to leverage recent public sentiment honoring Kim Dae-jung into an expansion of its support base. Although street protests, which intensified after the ruling party's forceful passage of media legislation on July 22, were suspended during the period of mourning for former President Kim Dae-jung, the party's inability to demonstrate leadership as an opposition party, by focusing solely on street protests without clear policy alternatives, can be seen as the result of this failure.

[Figure 2] Trend of Party Support Rate Changes (%)

[Table 1] Changes in Party Support Rates (February-August 2009) (%)

* The survey on June 5 was an emergency political issue survey (600 respondents) jointly conducted by EAI and Maeil Business Newspaper, not a regular survey.

** Combined value of 'No party affiliation' and 'Don't know/No response'.