[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 56-1] Analysis of Presidential Approval Ratings: Is the Centrist Pragmatism Effect Reigniting?

[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 56] Changes in President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Ratings and Party Support Rates in August

1. Analysis of Presidential Approval Ratings: Is the Centrist Pragmatism Effect Reigniting?

2. Analysis of Party Support Rates: Party Support Rates in a Stalemate Since the June Fluctuations

Presidential Approval Rating Increased by 6.8% Amidst National Mourning for Former President Kim Dae-jung

Approval Rating Surged by 13.1%p Among Centrists; Recent Economic Indicators and Inter-Korean Relations Improvement Also Played a Role

President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating is showing an upward trend again. Following the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun in late May, President Lee experienced a sharp decline in approval ratings. However, in this survey conducted during the state funeral period for President Kim Dae-jung, his approval rating rose to 37.3%, an increase of 6.8%p from the previous month. This is according to the regular public opinion barometer survey conducted on August 22 by the East Asia Institute (EAI, President: Lee Sook-jong) in collaboration with Korea Research. By generation, approval ratings increased evenly across all other generations, regions, and social strata, with the exception of the 30s generation where approval ratings remained stagnant. Notably, high approval ratings were observed among low-income individuals (under 1 million KRW) at 50.1%, those with junior high school education or less at 61.9%, and individuals aged 50 and above at 61.4%, all of whom are part of the ruling party's support base.

Rebound in Approval Ratings: Apparent Impact of Improving Economic Indicators and Positive Inter-Korean Relations

The recovery in approval ratings for this survey can be attributed, above all, to the favorable environment for the government in terms of the economy and inter-Korean relations. Amidst a global economic crisis, South Korea's economic indicators have steadily improved to the point where exit strategies are being discussed. In inter-Korean relations, the American journalists and Hyundai employees recently detained in North Korea were released following the visits of U.S. President Clinton and Hyundai Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun to Pyongyang. Furthermore, exchanges, such as reunions for separated families, are creating an opening for dialogue in inter-Korean relations, which had been strained since the second North Korean nuclear test.

[Figure 1] Changes in President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Ratings (%)

Reigniting the Centrist Pragmatic Approach? Approval Rating Increased by 13.1%p Among Ideological Centrists, While Support Among Conservatives Remained Stagnant

Moreover, the effects of centrist pragmatic and pro-common people policies, which had faltered following the forceful passage of the Media Legislation and the withdrawal of Chun Sung-kwan's nomination for Prosecutor General in July, appear to be manifesting. After the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun, the government and the ruling party faced political criticism and a decline in approval ratings throughout June. However, they had previously succeeded in rebounding their approval ratings by advocating centrist pragmatic and pro-common people policies. Yet, in July, as they approached the 40% approval mark, the forceful passage of the Media Legislation and the withdrawal of Chun Sung-kwan's nomination halted the momentum of the approval rating increase. However, President Lee Myung-bak's consistent emphasis on centrist pragmatism and various policies for the common and middle classes, particularly through his August 15th Liberation Day address, appears to have played a crucial role in the renewed rebound of approval ratings.

Indeed, examining the rebound in approval ratings by ideological group reveals that support for the President's performance among conservatives has remained stagnant, recorded at 49.2% on June 20, 43.1% in the July 25 survey, and 43.2% in the current survey. In contrast, among centrists, after falling from 31.2% in June to 28.4% in July, approval ratings rose to 41.5% in the current survey. This represents an increase of 13.1%p compared to July, bringing it to a level comparable to the approval ratings among conservatives. Among progressives, 24.4% gave a positive assessment of the Lee Myung-bak administration's governance, an increase of 5.6%p compared to July.

National Mourning Period for Former President Kim Dae-jung and State Funeral Treatment Prevented Negative Political Fallout

In addition, at the time of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death, a significant portion of the public perceived pressure from the Blue House and the prosecution as a major factor contributing to his demise, leading President Lee Myung-bak and his administration to face political repercussions. However, the death of former President Kim Dae-jung did not act as a negative factor for President Lee Myung-bak. This is likely due to the absence of room for political interpretation surrounding the cause of death, as well as the exceptional deference shown by the Blue House, which accorded him a state funeral despite some opposition from conservative factions.

[Figure 2] Changes in President Lee Myung-bak's Approval Ratings by Ideological Inclination (%)

[Table 1] Changes in Presidential Approval Ratings by Social Stratum (%)