[Public Opinion Briefing Vol. 19-1] Tracking Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Support Base

[Issue Briefing Vol. 19] D-7, Final Comprehensive Review of the Presidential Election Landscape

[1] Tracking Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Support Base: Core Supporters + Bandwagon Effect - Kang Won-taek

[2] Remaining Points of Interest in the Presidential Election: Who Will Secure Second Place? - Lee Na-young

[3] Turnout Differences Did Not Alter Support Distribution - Lee Hyun-woo

[4] Political Alliances 'Ineffective,' Pro-Government Camp's Morality Offensive 'Ineffective' - Kwon Hyuk-yong

[5] The 17th Presidential Election is an Economic Election! - Jeong Han-wool

1. Tracking Changes in Lee Myung-bak's Support Base: Core Supporters + Bandwagon Effect

Kang Won-taek (Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Soongsil University)

□ 60% of Lee Myung-bak's supporters were supporters from the first survey (April).

□ 25-27% were Park Geun-hye's supporters from April to August.

□ 6.7% were Lee Hoi-chang's supporters.

□ 5-8% of undecided voters were absorbed in each survey.

Analysis of the fifth panel survey reveals that support for candidate Lee Myung-bak is very solid. The majority of those currently supporting candidate Lee began to do so long ago.



Over 60% of those who stated they support candidate Lee Myung-bak in this survey had already been supporting him since last April. Furthermore, over 80% of current supporters began backing Lee Myung-bak after the Grand National Party's primary election, in August. Despite various allegations and political attacks, Lee Myung-bak's support base was not significantly affected.



Additionally, approximately 25-27% of those currently supporting candidate Lee Myung-bak had supported candidate Park Geun-hye prior to the primary election. In this survey, Lee Myung-bak's approval rating was 46.2%, with about 12% of these being former Park Geun-hye supporters. When combining the proportion of voters who supported both Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye in the first and second surveys among current Lee Myung-bak supporters, the ratio was approximately 87-88%; this increased to 89.5% in the third survey, indicating that candidate Lee Myung-bak effectively absorbed Park Geun-hye's support base.



Another interesting point is that previously undecided voters have been consistently moving towards candidate Lee Myung-bak. In each survey, about 5-8% of voters who responded that they had not yet decided on a candidate revealed their support for Lee Myung-bak in this survey. Notably, after the results of the BBK investigation were announced, 7.4% who had answered 'no candidate yet' or 'don't know' in the fourth survey shifted their support to Lee Myung-bak.



In addition, some voters who previously supported minor candidates also changed their stance to support candidate Lee Myung-bak. The proportion of such voters is increasing as the election date approaches. The movement of undecided voters or supporters of minor candidates appears to be driven by the desire to avoid wasting their vote or by the bandwagon effect, seeking to align with the likely winner.



Meanwhile, a considerable number of Lee Hoi-chang's former supporters also shifted to Lee Myung-bak following the prosecution's announcement regarding the BBK case. Currently, 6.7% of Lee Myung-bak's supporters previously stated their support for candidate Lee Hoi-chang. The foundation of Lee Myung-bak's current support lies in the numerous voters who have supported him since early on, who remain steadfast, and his effective absorption of Park Geun-hye's support base, which has propelled the narrative of his inevitable victory.

[Table 1] Past Support History of Lee Myung-bak's Current Support Base (5th Survey) as Seen Through Panel Surveys