[North Korea's Future Leader] ① The Narrative of Kim Ju-ae's Succession in North Korean Media | Kim Hyun-kyung, Daewoo Professor at Sogang University, Former North Korea Correspondent for MBC

YouTube link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHsgpMCY2j0&si=z6I5zRfJHMRq0EXj

Video Script

Media Analysis of Kim Ju-ae's Succession Narrative

This is Kim Hyun-kyung. I will first discuss the succession narrative of Kim Ju-ae as it appears in North Korean media. I will provide a general overview of Kim Ju-ae's emergence, explore the content of North Korea's succession theory, and examine how the media reflects it. Additionally, I will briefly review the two succession systems of previous generations to understand how they were established, in order to examine Kim Ju-ae.

By observing the aspects presented through the media, we will examine whether Kim Ju-ae's succession narrative follows Kim Jong-un's tradition, using media footage. How will the issue of qualifications be resolved? I have prepared an assessment and outlook for Kim Ju-ae's succession narrative. Observing the trends since Kim Ju-ae's appearance, she first emerged in November 2022 and has since expanded from the military sector to diplomacy and economy, appearing in events such as the 41st, 42nd, and 43rd. Counting the days she appeared on television even once, she has appeared approximately 200 times a year, totaling over 600 appearances.

Kim Jong-un's Succession Building Experience and Kim Ju-ae's Strategy

Titles such as 'Beloved Respected Child' and 'Great Guides' have appeared. While the protocol and visual signals are continuously being strengthened, the name Kim Ju-ae does not appear directly anywhere in North Korea. We call her Kim Ju-ae because we know her as such; North Korea does not directly refer to her as a successor. The National Intelligence Service's current assessment has progressed from initially viewing her as undergoing succession training, to internal designation, and now to potentially being considered a successor. This is based not only on circumstantial evidence but also on credible information, and the fact that she is offering opinions on some policies is noteworthy. This can be interpreted as a movement related to the leadership system of a successor. What about Kim Jong-un then? Although it may seem like there was no separate succession narrative for Kim Jong-un, he was prepared for a long time.

It can be seen that a tradition has been established through the process of preparation, creating conditions, building a narrative, implementing a succession system, and retrospectively justifying it. If a tradition has been established by the previous generation, a path for the next generation to follow it can be considered established. So, what about Kim Ju-ae? Reading Kim Ju-ae's succession strategy and narrative through Kim Jong-un's succession building experience, assuming Kim Ju-ae is indeed the successor, will help in finding clues to that strategy. In the North Korean system, the leader, who is the brain of the socio-political organism, is central; the system is maintained only if there is a leader. Therefore, succession is a critical issue that determines life or death, and the theory of succession is fundamentally based on the theory of the leader.

Theoretical Evolution of North Korea's Succession Theory

This is what I studied from Professor Oh Kyung-seop's paper. Designating a successor and establishing a leadership system become important duties and achievements for the incumbent leader. The recent issue of the Workers' Party newspaper 'Rodong Sinmun' (Spring 2025) had a timing that was unusual, although the content itself was not particularly special. The expression that the succession issue of leadership, which had been discussed, was brilliantly resolved appeared in connection with Kim Il-sung in the 1980s.

It is said that there is a great tradition of succession, and the successor was theorized for the first time during the process of establishing Kim Jong-un's succession system in the 1970s-80s. My view is that Kim Jong-un's succession theory is a discourse produced retrospectively in the 70s-80s, tailored for Kim Jong-il. Kim Jong-un graduated from university in 1964 and, after serving as section chief and deputy director, was designated and confirmed as successor in 1974, having already accumulated 10 years of experience in the Party. By the time he was publicly revealed in 1980, 16 years had passed. The obstacle at the time was the question of whether hereditary succession was possible within the socialist bloc,

and qualification requirements other than bloodline were emphasized. One had to be the next generation of the leader, understand the leader's will best, and be loyal. This was to avoid becoming like the Soviet Union, or betraying or failing midway like Deng Xiaoping in China. There was a theory of succession that required verification of ideology, leadership experience, and ability within the Party. The problem is that this could not be applied to Kim Jong-un. Kim Jong-un is estimated to have been born in 1982, 83, or 84, with our government considering him born in 1984.

We also learned retrospectively that he graduated from university in December 2006. Subsequently, the process of becoming a general and vice-chairman of the Party's Central Military Commission in September 2010 is not known. The change is that bloodline became the most important qualification, and being the next generation or loyalty became fulfilled conditions. However, due to his young age and lack of Party experience, it was difficult to apply the existing succession theory, necessitating a new succession theory. Judging by the timing of media exposure, there are indications that the succession structure was early visualized around 2023. At this time, appellations such as 'Saebyeol Palace' emerged. In 2005, Kim Jong-il prohibited discussions on succession itself, but after suffering a stroke in August 2008, indications suggest Kim Jong-un was designated successor on January 8, 2009. He appeared as successor in September 2010, and it is believed that the succession system had been prepared for a long time, with discussions on succession beginning in earnest in 2005 when they were prohibited.

The Political Role and Narrative Construction of North Korean Media

It can be seen that the existing succession theory was adapted for Kim Jong-un and prepared for a considerable period in secret. North Korean media serve as a tool for revolution, and one of their most important roles is to convey the leader's revolutionary activities. The media itself is a political apparatus and a weapon. Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un stated that 'Rodong Sinmun is like a department of the Party Central Committee' and 'broadcasting is like a cannon.' The forms of media are very diverse, including mobile phones, leader's works, Party, political, and publications, broadcasts, newspapers, publications, performances, and artworks, and also include dictionaries, though they are not covered here. Changes in dictionary expressions during this period are also observed.

Dictionaries are among the most political things. So, in what way is the work done? The '10 Great Generals' emerge. Although 'military-first politics' is said to have begun on January 1, 1995, a ceremony for the 45th anniversary of military-first leadership was suddenly held in 2005. This was a jump of over 35 years, but the event was held without explanation. I found this strange. The editorial format of Rodong Sinmun is an important method of theoretical explanation when explanation is needed. Explaining every detail, it is chronologically organized in a completely different way. In the past, the start of Party work after university entrance was called 'Glorious June 19th' under the 'Pledge of Yongnamsan.' Suddenly, with the command to remember and not forget, a history was fabricated that military-first politics began a week before university entrance, and this photo was first released. Kim Jong-il is in the center.

This photograph was later unearthed. A structure was created that used military-first politics, the dominant ideology at the time, retroactively for 35 years, also serving as a succession theory. Along with this, the 'revolutionary tradition of revolution progressing through generations' emerged, which is an existing concept in North Korea. Previously, the 'relay baton' was referred to as the 'Party's Red Flag,' but around this time, the 'muzzle of the gun' becomes the 'relay baton.' In other words, it was aligned with military-first politics. The narratives that emerged then refined and systematized elements from various sources. A new song was written and composed, appearing with the content that a pistol was passed as a relay baton in 1952. The song 'The Muzzle is the Relay Baton of Revolution' was intensively disseminated through Rodong Sinmun and broadcasts. To summarize, it is claimed that he was chosen as the successor of military-first politics in his youth and accumulated leadership and military command experience at the age of 18, but crucially, in the 1960s, when he had no official titles and no institutional succession was observed, the People's Army commanders revered him as the Supreme Commander. Here, 'revering' is very important. Wearing the uniform of a general from the gun lineage, and called the 'young general' from childhood,

he was effectively exercising leadership despite lacking any official position. This can be considered the image applied to Kim Jong-un. The gun lineage, born into the Mangyongdae or Baekdu lineage from childhood, growing up wearing a general's uniform. According to the recently published 'Kim Jong-un's Revolutionary History' (2020), his revolution began in 1998, and he pledged revolutionary succession with the 'Pledge of Mt. Baekdu.' This is similar to Kim Il-sung's pledge at Pophyeong Dock and Kim Jong-il's pledge at Yongnamsan. In 1999, he provided on-site guidance to military units, all of which occurred during his teenage years.

The Symbolism and Path Prediction of Kim Ju-ae's Succession Narrative

In 2002, the novel 'Oseongsan' mentions him piloting a new type of armored vehicle. The novel format in North Korea is very important. In 2003, he entered Kim Il-sung Military University, and a narrative is being created that he was already exercising leadership at that time. While attending university, he issued specific instructions to People's Army commanders. December 24, 2006, was the day Kim Jong-un graduated, Kim Jong-suk's birthday, and the anniversary of Kim Jong-il's appointment as Supreme Commander. It is mentioned that he was introduced to the People's Army commanders on this day. At the current stage, Kim Ju-ae's succession narrative has a very high media exposure frequency but lacks concrete information. It can be said to be a stage of building an ideal status and image through appellations, visuals, and symbols, and maximizing exposure. Although young, she is the successor of the Baekdu lineage loved and recognized by Kim Jong-un, and commands the respect of the Party and the military.

The expression 'respected' is even used. When she first appeared, she accompanied Kim Jong-un in the process of building the image of a strong and resolute leader confronting the US. We must also consider linguistic and non-linguistic symbols. Let's predict the path she might take. Kim Ju-ae appeared in 2023, and on this day, Kim Jong-un officially introduced her to the military leadership. He visited the leadership's lodging the day before the military parade. Observing this, I felt as if he was kindly explaining, perhaps so people wouldn't recognize her, given her appearance in 9 out of 12 photos. Kim Ju-ae is placed in the center; while sometimes placed alongside her parents, here she is positioned to the side, with the surrounding leadership arranged. This can be linked to the tradition of Kim Jong-il introducing Kim Jong-un to the military leadership. Another symbol is something that all North Koreans would recognize: at the military parade, the foremost figure in the equestrian march is Kim Jong-il's horse, followed by Kim Ju-ae's horse. It is Kim Jong-un's horse and Kim Ju-ae's horse. Leading the flow of the parade symbolizes leading the entire People's Army procession. It is noteworthy that North Korea would even display the subtitle 'Fierce Defense of the Baekdu Bloodline' in a scene where Kim Ju-ae's face is clearly visible. The area where Kim Ju-ae is seated is a separate rectangular section, and three cameras are attached to it. It is stated in a separate sentence that 'the Party leadership is seated with the respected child.' This brings to mind the succession of the gun lineage. Kim Jong-un frequently presents guns as gifts; he does so at the headquarters of the Party Central Committee, and she accompanies him. Looking at the circled area in the photo, everyone else is receiving a gun, but only these two are in the position of awarding it. Awarders and successors must be qualified; it is not enough for the leader to simply designate them; they must gain the consent and support of the masses. In Kim Jong-un's case, the process of gaining consent involves drawing solely from Kim Jong-un's achievements and formalizing them, and there are accounts of Kim Jong-il praising him in this manner.

The narration states, 'If the enemies had intercepted our satellite, it would have been a disaster before our commander's counterattack.' So, what about Kim Ju-ae? Although there is no narrative of achievements yet, non-verbal images exist, such as Kim Jong-un smiling broadly or showing satisfaction whenever he sees her. Ultimately, achievements will likely be retroactively constructed into a narrative. To be honest, I am not sure how objective or important achievements are in North Korea, but a narrative is necessary.

Background and Strategy of Kim Ju-ae's Early Exposure

It is expanding into narratives of military, economic, social, and popular support. As you can see, she is shown operating a tank, a new model. She is participating in economic construction achievements; the framing of the screen reveals this. Now, it has finally progressed to the stage of physical contact symbolizing popular support. So why was she exposed so early? Someone mentioned trauma; there was the incident of Kim Jong-il's sudden illness. While preparations were underway, a sudden illness created problems for the non-public succession system. The leader died suddenly, leading to a hasty succession, only about 1 year and 1-2 months after being publicly revealed as successor. The exposure period and frequency were insufficient, and public leadership and presence were inevitably lacking. The institutional succession and the successor's leadership system itself would not have been satisfactory from Kim Jong-un's perspective. Therefore, after Kim Jong-il's death, a completely different approach is taken compared to Kim Il-sung's death. Kim Jong-il remained as hidden as possible, with only mourning.

As everyone knows, during the equestrian march at the military parade, Kim Jong-il's horse appears at the very front. Next is Kim Ju-ae's horse, then Kim Jong-un's horse and Kim Ju-ae's horse. Leading the parade symbolizes leading the entire People's Army procession. It is noteworthy that North Korea would display the subtitle 'Fierce Defense of the Baekdu Bloodline' in a scene where Kim Ju-ae's face is clearly visible. Furthermore, the area where Kim Ju-ae is seated is a rectangular section, and three cameras are attached to it. It is stated in a separate sentence that 'the Party leadership is seated with the respected child,' which evokes the succession of the gun lineage. Kim Jong-un frequently presents guns as gifts; when receiving guns at the headquarters of the Party Central Committee, Kim Ju-ae is present. Looking at the circled area in the photo, while everyone else is in the position of receiving guns,

only these two are in the position of awarding them. Awarders and successors must be qualified. It is not enough for the leader to simply designate them; they must gain the consent and support of the masses. In Kim Jong-un's case, the process of gaining consent involves drawing solely from Kim Jong-un's achievements and formalizing them, and there are accounts of Kim Jong-il praising him in this manner.

The narration states, 'If the enemies had intercepted our satellite, it would have been a disaster before our commander's counterattack.' So, what about Kim Ju-ae? Although there is no narrative of achievements yet, non-verbal images exist, such as Kim Jong-un smiling broadly or showing satisfaction whenever he sees her. Ultimately, achievements will likely be retroactively constructed into a narrative. Frankly, I am not sure how objective or important achievements are in North Korea, but a narrative is necessary.

It is expanding into narratives of military, economic, social, and popular support. As you can see, she is shown operating a new type of tank and participating in economic construction achievements. Now, it has progressed to the stage of physical contact symbolizing popular support. So why was she exposed so early? Considering Kim Jong-il's sudden illness, there was a problem with the non-public succession system due to a sudden illness during succession preparations. The leader died suddenly, leading to a hasty succession, only about 1 year and 1-2 months after being publicly revealed as successor. The exposure period and frequency were insufficient, and public leadership and presence were inevitably lacking. The institutional succession and the successor's leadership system itself would not have been satisfactory from Kim Jong-un's perspective. Therefore, after Kim Jong-il's death, a completely different approach is taken compared to Kim Il-sung's death. Kim Jong-il remained as hidden as possible, with only mourning

He was as hidden as possible. However, he is revealed as much as possible. Kim Jong-un is clearly shown in the photos commemorating Kim Jong-il, intentionally exposed. Institutional succession begins immediately without a power vacuum. Looking at the background, it is at a stage where Kim Jong-un's succession narrative can be followed without revision. Kim Jong-un's personal characteristics are also important. He is public and uninhibited. Looking at the COVID-19 crisis in 2002,

Challenges and Prospects of Kim Ju-ae's Succession System

At that time, Kim Yo-jong stated that Kim Jong-un suffered from a high fever. Whether this is true or not is unknown, but we need to consider the possibility that such problematic situations were taken into account. In the past, preparations were made in secret and then revealed; now, it appears to be a breakthrough strategy of revealing from the preparation stage. Succession coverage is in progress, and the narrative is unfolding. However, there is an inconsistency. The North Korean system itself is patriarchal. How will the structure of the leader, the father leader, the mother Party, and the child masses be overcome? How will the successor distance themselves from this complexity in addressing chronic crisis issues? Currently, I believe the possibility of Kim Ju-ae's succession system changing is extremely low. Variables such as how to handle unexpected situations will always remain. Therefore, by initially promoting her,

it can be assessed as a strategy of identifying problems as they arise, and then supplementing, revising, correcting, and overcoming them over a long period. Subsequently, laying the foundation for a legal and institutional succession system will also be important. Kim Jong-un is now in the position of needing to become a predecessor leader. It will be difficult to maintain the relationship with his father and grandfather as before. In the future, Kim Jong-un's narrative will be manufactured in a direction that simultaneously considers Kim Ju-ae's succession system. To overcome the weakest link, the issue of being female, the tradition of the Baekdu lineage, which includes Kim Jong-suk, one of the three Baekdu generals, a female general of Baekdu, a sharpshooter with perfect aim, and an embodiment of fierce devotion to the leader, as well as the role of Choe Son-hui and the status of North Korean female leaders, will be noteworthy in creating discourse.