[EAI Opinion Memo] Ahn Cheol-soo's Future Path and the Direction of His Supporters' Votes

EAI Opinion Memo No. 9

Author

Lee Na-young, Director of EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center (Korea University)

Reasons why former candidate Ahn's future path is important

Although the presidential election landscape was decided as a two-way race between Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in following Ahn Cheol-soo's sudden withdrawal from the opposition's unified candidacy negotiations, the future path of former independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo and the voting intentions of his supporters have emerged as key variables that will determine the election outcome. The political community, as well as the public, is keenly focused on whether former candidate Ahn will actively support candidate Moon, and how his actions will influence the voting intentions of his supporters.

Furthermore, considering former candidate Ahn's recent statement that he would consider the views and opinions of his supporters regarding his future path, it appears that the attitudes of his supporters will also have a certain influence on his actions. In this regard, the third panel survey for this presidential election provides important findings that can help understand the direction of former candidate Ahn's future path and the voting intentions of his supporters.

63.5% of Supporters: Ahn Should Actively Help Candidate Moon

[Figure 1] shows the attitudes of former candidate Ahn's supporters regarding his future path. Firstly, 77.2% of his supporters want him to continue in politics. Additionally, among his supporters, 63.5% believe he should actively help candidate Moon, while 36.2% oppose this. At first glance, these survey results appear encouraging for candidate Moon. However, when we examine former candidate Ahn's supporters based on their preferred candidate after his withdrawal, we see that the situation is not as optimistic ([See Figure 2]).

Of former candidate Ahn's supporters who expressed a preference for candidate Moon after his withdrawal, 83.4% responded that Ahn should actively help Moon. However, only 38.1% of those who returned to the undecided group showed an attitude that Ahn should actively help Moon. Furthermore, regarding who is presidential material, only 17.7% of these undecided switchers chose candidate Moon, while 64% stated there was no suitable candidate. In other words, the majority of former candidate Ahn's supporters who switched to the undecided group do not view candidate Moon as an alternative to former candidate Ahn.

Reasons why it is difficult to win back the undecided voters

Certainly, if former candidate Ahn clearly expresses his support for candidate Moon and actively works to help him, there remains a possibility that preference for candidate Moon among Ahn's supporters could increase. However, winning over the votes of former candidate Ahn's supporters who have become undecided due to disappointment with the unification process and directing them towards candidate Moon appears to be a formidable challenge. ■

[Figure 1] Attitudes of Ahn's supporters regarding Ahn's future path (%)

[Figure 2] Attitudes of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters toward supporting candidate Moon, by preferred presidential candidate (%)