[EAI Opinion Memo] Changes in Voter Sentiment After Ahn Cheol-soo's Withdrawal

EAI Opinion Memo No. 8

Author

Yoon Kwang-il, Sookmyung Women's University

64.1% of former candidate Ahn's supporters moved to candidate Moon

In this panel survey conducted from the 25th to the 27th, following the abrupt withdrawal of independent presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo on the 23rd, it was revealed that 64.1% of former candidate Ahn's supporters shifted to candidate Moon, 15.0% to candidate Park, and 18.7% remained undecided.

Compared to opinion polls conducted by various media outlets immediately after candidate Ahn's withdrawal, the shift towards candidate Moon in this survey was approximately 5 percentage points higher (58.5% in the Korea Economic Daily-Global Research poll on the 24th) to about 20 percentage points higher (45.3% in the MBC-Korea Research poll on the 24th). How should this considerable difference be interpreted? It can be understood primarily as a difference in survey methodology and timing.

First, it can be pointed out that this survey's results are more reliable because panel surveys, which ask the same respondents questions at different times, can more accurately track changes in preference over time than other general opinion polls that ask respondents to recall their past preferred candidate at the current time. General opinion polls may find it difficult to accurately ascertain changes in preference because respondents may not accurately recall their past preferences or may distort their past memories to align with their current preferences.

Another possibility is that general opinion polls, which were conducted one or two days earlier than this panel survey (as they were conducted immediately after the withdrawal), reflected the shock of the failure of the so-called 'beautiful unification' among former candidate Ahn's supporters more strongly. They may have lacked the time to process the shock of losing their preferred candidate and rationalize their decision to shift their support.

However, the Unification Was Not Beautiful

So, what do former candidate Ahn's supporters think about the unification process and its outcome? This survey indicates that, generally, former candidate Ahn's supporters evaluated the unification negatively, although there were differences depending on the path of their support shift. 64.9% of former candidate Ahn's supporters evaluated the unification process and outcome negatively. 92.5% of those who moved to candidate Park and 85.5% of those who returned to the undecided category thought negatively about the unification process and outcome. Even among former candidate Ahn's supporters who shifted to candidate Moon, only 51.7% held a positive evaluation. ■

[Figure 1] Support Rate Changes of Major Presidential Candidates (Multi-candidate Race, %)

[Table 1] Support Shift by Quadrant: October-November (%)